Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Not to be braggadocio but my commodity stocks are flying today - VFR I presume. I plan to peel off some MOS in a few days to go back and help out some wall flowers that are currently deep in superlative manure. I'll be buying this wall of worry all the way up.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The new secular bull market in stocks from the 2002 lows is taking place in the context of a commodity bull market and a maturing, multi-decade downtrend in yields. It would seem, therefore, that this new uptrend has the potential to be an inflationary bull, making it more similar to the 1940s to 1960s.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"A confluence of bullish indicators."

http://safehaven.com/article-9508.htm

 

[presskh]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"A confluence of bullish indicators."

http://safehaven.com/article-9508.htm

Birch, here's another good article that is bullish about where we are.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2008/0219.html

It pays to weigh both sides of the bullish/bearish argument and come to your own decisions. I am still slightly bearish, though not nearly as much as in December & January.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Is the secular trend of 1942-68 starting all over again? An inflationary bull market marked by a period of global infrastructure development. The bull matket from the 1982 lows to the highs in 2000 was similar to the secular uptrend from the mid 1940s to the mid 1960s in terms of duration (20 years, more or less) and performance (on the order of 1100%). The earlier period saw the DJIA rally from below 100 to near 1100; the 1982-2000 bull market rallied from below 1000 to 11,700. However, the fundamental underpinning of the moves were different. The 1940s to 1960s was an "inflationary" bull market, while the bull market of the 1980s and 1990s was "disinflationary". It surely feels like history is repeating.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"A sustained broad-based rally in commodity prices is unlikely over the next few months. Instead, investors should focus on rotation within this asset class."

http://bankcreditanalyst.com

When we get these compressional moments they usually give us a multi-month trading pattern to work with once any indecision is finally resolved.

http://decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"A sustained broad-based rally in commodity prices is unlikely over the next few months.

I have been waiting for a few months for that one to come crashing down, but only a fool would short a bubble. The following article originally in the WSJ, reprinted on Smartmoney.com, should be throwing up red flags to investors.

If you haven't sowed any of these seeds, so to speak, I don't think it's too late.
http://www.smartmoney.com/commonsense/index.cfm?story=20080219-agriculture-stocks

I don't know James... I enjoy your column but by time you are writing about it, it's too late. You have just produced a diversion that should enable the smart money to swing for the exits. Now witness The Street's version of the Kansas City Shuffle.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dare I say anything - ha, ha, ha. Up over 100 on the close.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dare I say anything - ha, ha, ha. Up over 100 on the close.

Wow! That's great Birch! Your ass got saved by a timely, BS bailout rumor. A bailout that might not even happen!

Birchtree's YTD = -8%

You're doing great! Keep that wisdom coming...:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks good buddy for the encouragement - we all need saving at times.

 

[mojo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Does seem a bit suspicious.:suspicious:

A bailout that might not even happen!

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Like I said before, Wake me up at 1396. Until we breach that level, I'm nowhere near getting worried about missing a rally.

Looking to buy in again when we hammer down through 1320.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Today's charts will look at what is happening to:

1. The core holdings held by Institutional Investors

2. The NYA Index vs. its long term relative strength

3. The inflowing/outflowing amount of liquidity in the market vs. rallies and corrections"

http://safehaven.com/article-9530.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A few words from my friends at Merrill - by Mary Ann Bartels, Technical Research Analyst

"We believe that the 2002-07 bull market was one phase of a larger secular uptrend. Once the current bear market ends, a new phase of the secular uptrend should unfold and carry the major indexes to new all-time highs. We are with Birchtree on his belief in the mega trend secular bull market. What will confirm a bear market low? Once the market completes a bottoming process, we will be alert for confirmations that the bear trend had given way to a new uptrend. 1) A rally through the dominant downtrend line from the October high. That line is now at 1446-1447 and declining by 71/2 points per week. 2) A move by the Net Tab from its recent buy readings of +3 and above to +2 and below. 3) Continued strength in the DJ Transportation index, preferably through 4935-5025. Such a rally would complete a base and represent the first "higher high" since October. If the S&P 500 breaks below 1310, it would be a sign that a retest of the lows is likely underway."

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And all you buy and holders please remember that volatility is the price you pay in order to get the kind of superior return that equity exposure gives you. Friends do let friends buy and hold. You don't panic and change your strategy if markets go down, because they do go down from time to time. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And all you buy and holders please remember that volatility is the price you pay in order to get the kind of superior return that equity exposure gives you. Friends do let friends buy and hold. You don't panic and change your strategy if markets go down, because they do go down from time to time. Be right and sit tight.

Unfortunately, we can do nothing but "trust" that the next 50 years will be similar to the past 50 years....who knows what it really will be like.

Even if the market mimics past behavior from here on out, there have been bad cycles in the past. For example, the DOW was at the same level in November 1964 as it was in August 1982! That is a long time period of basically no gain. It could happen again. Just imagine if the S&P was still at 1350 in 2026! I hope that does not happen!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I made my first $300K starting in August of 1982 - very few Wall Streeters believed we were at the start of a good bull market. The recession didn't end until late November of that year. And recently I gave back via devaluation my first $300K - but at least the holy grail allowed me to do it. I think we are definitely getting ready for a big move up and my asset base though worth less is still intact to make me some serious money. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Boxholder]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mr. Birchtree...Am curios, did you take some profit from MOS this week? I think I read where you said you might. I've jumped in and gone overweight on MOS - bought another 150 shares Friday evening @ $107.89 when it started moving back up before the close, giving me a total of 250 shares. Hoping for a good pop next couple of weeks and a split after confirmation of a bottom. Pretty risky to go this heavy in one stock but the outlook sure looks positive for a while.

I don't usually chase the trends but in the last 2 or 3 weeks, I decided to jump in a little on the precious metals race - just a quick in and out, not usually my cup of tea.
Two weeks ago I bought North American Palladium (PAL) 100 shares @ 4.91. It closed Friday @ $9.00. Was only going to stay for a 2 or 3 day play, but now I'm not sure if I want out. Could be promising for a while longer. Three weeks ago I bought Stillwater Mining (SWC) 100 shares @ 10.44 and it's up to $18.90 now. But I will get rid of it Monday midday because they report earnings Tues and have a terrible history on earnings. I had always tried to stay away from yellow gold and black gold - too volatile for me, though I do have a pretty good chunk of Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR). Like I said, I'm looking for the market to climb this week where bad news becomes good news, breaking news on bond insurers and possible new info on Microsoft/Yahoo. May be a good week for the C.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I came awfully close to pulling the trigger on some MOS at $115.00 but decided to wait on $120.00 before peeling any more off. I've sold some at $94.00 and again at $98.00. Currently resting on 681 shares to date. I sure would like a split before I'm totally out on this one. I also own TRA, CNH, AG, AGU, LNN. so I'm covered for awhile. I took profits on CF and BG - actually way early. The hardest thing to do is let your profits run. But I have so many unloved wall flowers that enjoy any new company that comes to visit. And they all need new clothes for Easter. I take it you are enjoying the benefits of buying individual stocks over mutual funds or ETFs. There is of course more risk but along with the risk comes opportunity. I also own some metal stocks but my favorite preferences these days are toxic waste banks and housing related builders and materials. I mean they stink so bad that only the smell of superlative manure can cover the odor. I have a list of stuff no one wants - but I'm a consistent buyer when the markets give me reasons.

 

[Boxholder]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I came awfully close to pulling the trigger on some MOS at $115.00 but decided to wait on $120.00 before peeling any more off. I've sold some at $94.00 and again at $98.00. Currently resting on 681 shares to date. I sure would like a split before I'm totally out on this one. I also own TRA, CNH, AG, AGU, LNN. so I'm covered for awhile. I took profits on CF and BG - actually way early. The hardest thing to do is let your profits run. But I have so many unloved wall flowers that enjoy any new company that comes to visit. And they all need new clothes for Easter. I take it you are enjoying the benefits of buying individual stocks over mutual funds or ETFs. There is of course more risk but along with the risk comes opportunity. I also own some metal stocks but my favorite preferences these days are toxic waste banks and housing related builders and materials. I mean they stink so bad that only the smell of superlative manure can cover the odor. I have a list of stuff no one wants - but I'm a consistent buyer when the markets give me reasons.

And I thought I had a lot! I guess I just have more than I should have. You have quite an impressive lot in that sector. Another potash producer hidden in the shadows is CMP which appears to have just broken out. I may be a buyer on a dip.

You asked about ETF's. I do have a couple, one of which I'm very proud of (DBA). It is following the sector nicely and is ahead of some of the individual stocks.

Birch, all those "stinky" stocks may lie there fermenting for now. They say, "what comes around goes around" or is it "what goes around comes around"? Anyway, those seeds are going to spring back up when enough manure covers them. When they do, you may have to hire a secretary just to run back and forth to the bank for you!

I'm like you though when it comes to MOS. Sure would love to see a split and I think we will once we find the bottom and start the next leg up. I wish they would hurry up and give them a new target price so investers won't feel so bad about buying in. They're due another update. You said you may peel off a little a $120. Better not blink, on this next leg up they may get to $135 before you notice they passed it.