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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
hessian
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 23
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Hey Birch,
Thanks!
1. Some I'm familiar with $SPX, $NYA, and of course the $NYAD (that I'd looked up from your previous posts and, think I grasp this one).
2. $TICK and the $NYMO, apologetically just appear as clutter to me (just personally, suppose I'm not savvy enough to grasp).
3. However, for the others you provided, $BPSPX and the $NYSI, I do see/ think I feel these I can grasp/interpret (again personally) - And, do seem to be very interesting. I think I see what you may be saying in these
- showing generally improving trends, maybe approaching break-out levels - right??.
VR
PS Bullitt, LOL!
Not sure, but I suppose the joy is in the quest though, right?
Hey Birch,
Thanks!
1. Some I'm familiar with $SPX, $NYA, and of course the $NYAD (that I'd looked up from your previous posts and, think I grasp this one).
2. $TICK and the $NYMO, apologetically just appear as clutter to me (just personally, suppose I'm not savvy enough to grasp).
3. However, for the others you provided, $BPSPX and the $NYSI, I do see/ think I feel these I can grasp/interpret (again personally) - And, do seem to be very interesting. I think I see what you may be saying in these
- showing generally improving trends, maybe approaching break-out levels - right??.
VR
PS Bullitt, LOL!
Not sure, but I suppose the joy is in the quest though, right?
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"I would not be surprised if the Dow Industrials hits 20,000 level in four or five years time (this translates to an 11 to 14% annualized return over the next four to five years, which in actuality, isn't that aggressive) as global capital rotates to U.S. equities going forward."
http://safehaven.com/article-9481.htm
hessian,
If the various MCO's are able to challenge, or even move above the initial breadth thrusts of 2 weeks ago, while at the same time keeping the price patterns within their congestion area, this would be a very bullish event that should not be discounted. Looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM from the intermediate term, we are still a day or so away from challenging the accelerated declining tops line connecting the October and December highs. So until we see the MCSUM move above these declining tops levels, the price pattern itself will not be able to move above this same line of negative influence on the chart. The potential here is great for the bulls. Just waiting for more money off the sidelines to move back in.
Dennis - permabull #1
"I would not be surprised if the Dow Industrials hits 20,000 level in four or five years time (this translates to an 11 to 14% annualized return over the next four to five years, which in actuality, isn't that aggressive) as global capital rotates to U.S. equities going forward."
http://safehaven.com/article-9481.htm
hessian,
If the various MCO's are able to challenge, or even move above the initial breadth thrusts of 2 weeks ago, while at the same time keeping the price patterns within their congestion area, this would be a very bullish event that should not be discounted. Looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM from the intermediate term, we are still a day or so away from challenging the accelerated declining tops line connecting the October and December highs. So until we see the MCSUM move above these declining tops levels, the price pattern itself will not be able to move above this same line of negative influence on the chart. The potential here is great for the bulls. Just waiting for more money off the sidelines to move back in.
Dennis - permabull #1
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Short-Termism Rampant. During periods of shifting sentiment many market participants tend to over-transact, attemoting to "trade" their way out of broad declines, a sure way to worsen returns even more."
http://safehaven.com/article-9467.htm
"Short-Termism Rampant. During periods of shifting sentiment many market participants tend to over-transact, attemoting to "trade" their way out of broad declines, a sure way to worsen returns even more."
http://safehaven.com/article-9467.htm
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From my friends at Merrill; by Mary Ann Bartels - Technical Research Analyst
"A light at the end of the tunnel. The bear market is almost seven months old. The popular indexes recorded their final bull market highs in October. However, most measures of breadth peaked in May-June, and unweighted indexes (such as the Value Line Arithmetic index) peaked in July. By contrast, in October, breadth, the number of new 52-week highs, volume patterns, and the unweighted indexes were substantially below their summer highs. These classic devergences imply that the market's internal peak occurred last summer and that the current bear market is quite a bit more mature than is widely appreciated.
January internal lows are now being tested. While the S&P and DJIA still have not entered "official" bear market terrotory (a decline of 20% or more), most of their components have. Fore example, at the January lows, 60% of the stocks in the S&P 500 were more than 20% below their 52-week highs. Moreover, many technical indicators confirmed the indexes January lows with readings not seen in years. This means that January's low is, to date, the benchmark internal low for this cycle.
Be alert for divergences, and a bottom. Just as the internal peak last summer preceded the divergences in October that led to a sell-off, the January internal low might be expected to precede positive divergences prior to a rally. This possibility is bolstered by the fact that NYSE weekly breadth recently recorded the most advances in history (and a top 10 a/d ratio). The combination of extreme oversold readings and early evidence of significant breadth improvement suggests that a test of the January lows will be a successful prelude to at least an intermediate rally.
Charts to note: transports and high quality stocks. The S&P 500 Railroad index has held its uptrend line and is consolidating for another move higher. Rails are a sub-group of transportation, which is an industry group that is very sensitive to the economy. Transports are beginning to look stronher relative to other industry groups. The S&P 500 Transports have reclaimed a 5 year uptrend line."
The ratio adjusted NYAD line continues to have pattern compression. In my bullish manner I'm assuming the ensuing directional breakout will probably be highly aggressive in scope as all this combined energy is finally released. Will it make heads spin in amazement - I hope so. Fasten your seat belts and on the way up please remember that friends do let friends buy and hold. When better clarity is known this will drive the direction of the A/D line for many months out into the future which is what happened in June/July period of 2006. What a great time to be long. I collected 9 dividend payers on Friday and most every day I see where at least one of my companies is increasing their dividends - they do help to redeem.
From my friends at Merrill; by Mary Ann Bartels - Technical Research Analyst
"A light at the end of the tunnel. The bear market is almost seven months old. The popular indexes recorded their final bull market highs in October. However, most measures of breadth peaked in May-June, and unweighted indexes (such as the Value Line Arithmetic index) peaked in July. By contrast, in October, breadth, the number of new 52-week highs, volume patterns, and the unweighted indexes were substantially below their summer highs. These classic devergences imply that the market's internal peak occurred last summer and that the current bear market is quite a bit more mature than is widely appreciated.
January internal lows are now being tested. While the S&P and DJIA still have not entered "official" bear market terrotory (a decline of 20% or more), most of their components have. Fore example, at the January lows, 60% of the stocks in the S&P 500 were more than 20% below their 52-week highs. Moreover, many technical indicators confirmed the indexes January lows with readings not seen in years. This means that January's low is, to date, the benchmark internal low for this cycle.
Be alert for divergences, and a bottom. Just as the internal peak last summer preceded the divergences in October that led to a sell-off, the January internal low might be expected to precede positive divergences prior to a rally. This possibility is bolstered by the fact that NYSE weekly breadth recently recorded the most advances in history (and a top 10 a/d ratio). The combination of extreme oversold readings and early evidence of significant breadth improvement suggests that a test of the January lows will be a successful prelude to at least an intermediate rally.
Charts to note: transports and high quality stocks. The S&P 500 Railroad index has held its uptrend line and is consolidating for another move higher. Rails are a sub-group of transportation, which is an industry group that is very sensitive to the economy. Transports are beginning to look stronher relative to other industry groups. The S&P 500 Transports have reclaimed a 5 year uptrend line."
The ratio adjusted NYAD line continues to have pattern compression. In my bullish manner I'm assuming the ensuing directional breakout will probably be highly aggressive in scope as all this combined energy is finally released. Will it make heads spin in amazement - I hope so. Fasten your seat belts and on the way up please remember that friends do let friends buy and hold. When better clarity is known this will drive the direction of the A/D line for many months out into the future which is what happened in June/July period of 2006. What a great time to be long. I collected 9 dividend payers on Friday and most every day I see where at least one of my companies is increasing their dividends - they do help to redeem.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Many insiders appear to be adding to their positions and this indicates that they have a favorable longer term view. The time to panic is never when others are panicking, the time to panic is when everyone is busy celebrating as was the case with the housing bubble. In the end the dynamics of markets revolve around one fact only and that's an investors perspective; your job is not to let your emotions influence you but to watch how it influences others and then use these observations to your advantage."
http://safehaven.com/article-9485.htm
"Many insiders appear to be adding to their positions and this indicates that they have a favorable longer term view. The time to panic is never when others are panicking, the time to panic is when everyone is busy celebrating as was the case with the housing bubble. In the end the dynamics of markets revolve around one fact only and that's an investors perspective; your job is not to let your emotions influence you but to watch how it influences others and then use these observations to your advantage."
http://safehaven.com/article-9485.htm
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 471
Re: Birchtree's account talk
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/charts/WEEKLY/INSIDER_SCORE.htm
Corporate insiders remain very bullish on US stocks, despite the overwhelming belief by the herd that the US is plunging into a recession and protracted bear market. I suspect some of today’s selling is also related to option expiration and apprehension over the coming three-day weekend, considering what happened in Asia over the last US holiday weekend. Nikkei futures indicate a -137 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a +70 open in Germany. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on bargain-hunting and short-covering.
http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/charts/WEEKLY/INSIDER_SCORE.htm
Corporate insiders remain very bullish on US stocks, despite the overwhelming belief by the herd that the US is plunging into a recession and protracted bear market. I suspect some of today’s selling is also related to option expiration and apprehension over the coming three-day weekend, considering what happened in Asia over the last US holiday weekend. Nikkei futures indicate a -137 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a +70 open in Germany. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on bargain-hunting and short-covering.
http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Robo,
Thankyou for the timely literature from Henry.
$DJA (Dow Jones Composite Average) - If the composite can rally to 4350 it will achieve its first move above a preceding peak. And when the market does that - well, that's impressive. A rise above a preceding peak tells us that the market is gaining momentum and that it has overcome a previous barrier or resistance level. I'm interested to see whether the composite can better a preceding peak and whether the bullish percentage on the NYSE can rise above 50%. I believe it's currently around 34%.
Robo,
Thankyou for the timely literature from Henry.
$DJA (Dow Jones Composite Average) - If the composite can rally to 4350 it will achieve its first move above a preceding peak. And when the market does that - well, that's impressive. A rise above a preceding peak tells us that the market is gaining momentum and that it has overcome a previous barrier or resistance level. I'm interested to see whether the composite can better a preceding peak and whether the bullish percentage on the NYSE can rise above 50%. I believe it's currently around 34%.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"To get the long-term outlook, one must look beyond the purely technical approach. That's where fundamental analysis comes in. The longer term outlook is what fundamental analysis is made for. The short term is for technical analysis. Valuation is the key here, for it provides the backdrop for the bull market to continue in the longer term. According to IBES, stocks are nearly 50% undervalued compared to the 10-year Treasury yield. This is the most undervalued that stocks have been in the last 35 years. Keeping in mind that the stock market looks ahead 6-9 months, the revelations of the past year have already long since been discounted by the market."
http://safehaven.com/article-9502.htm
"To get the long-term outlook, one must look beyond the purely technical approach. That's where fundamental analysis comes in. The longer term outlook is what fundamental analysis is made for. The short term is for technical analysis. Valuation is the key here, for it provides the backdrop for the bull market to continue in the longer term. According to IBES, stocks are nearly 50% undervalued compared to the 10-year Treasury yield. This is the most undervalued that stocks have been in the last 35 years. Keeping in mind that the stock market looks ahead 6-9 months, the revelations of the past year have already long since been discounted by the market."
http://safehaven.com/article-9502.htm
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
A few kind words from Henry To before I'm off to wash my green beauty.
"The strength of the Dow Transports (which enjoyed a rally of nearly 13% in the last four weeks) - is very reassuring from a Dow Theory standpoint, as the Dow Transports had been a major leading index for this bull market since October 2002. Should the Fed cut the Fed funds rate to 2% by the April 30th meeting, this would effectively mean that any subprime mortgages that were going to reset after April 30th would actually see a decrease in its mortgage payments, not an increase as most folks have previously projected."
I continue to hold 75% C fund and 25% I fund - until death do us part.
A few kind words from Henry To before I'm off to wash my green beauty.
"The strength of the Dow Transports (which enjoyed a rally of nearly 13% in the last four weeks) - is very reassuring from a Dow Theory standpoint, as the Dow Transports had been a major leading index for this bull market since October 2002. Should the Fed cut the Fed funds rate to 2% by the April 30th meeting, this would effectively mean that any subprime mortgages that were going to reset after April 30th would actually see a decrease in its mortgage payments, not an increase as most folks have previously projected."
I continue to hold 75% C fund and 25% I fund - until death do us part.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Record U.S. cash reserves: waiting to be deployed, but when. The run-up in cash reserves underscores that there will be no shortage of liquidity to propel asset prices once risk-taking returns."
http://bankcreditanalyst.com
"Record U.S. cash reserves: waiting to be deployed, but when. The run-up in cash reserves underscores that there will be no shortage of liquidity to propel asset prices once risk-taking returns."
http://bankcreditanalyst.com
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
Re: Birchtree's account talk
My 2 cents...although Birchtree is much more experienced than I am.
I just don't have a very good feeling about all this. Record cash reserves...but A) Whose cash and B) What is there to invest in? Seems to me like the rich get richer and the people who made the rich rich are getting poorer (more in debt). Super cheap money is drying up. I currently have a student loan at 1.875%, a car loan at 0%, and a 30 yr fixed at 5.75%. I got used to very cheap credit card offers, like 0-5%. Now, I'm getting a barrage of junk mail touting rates that are downright insulting in comparison! To me, this seems like a last gasp. Nobody who is qualified for more credit is going to go for it at such high rates, and the people who would go for it may not be approved. Savings rate is negative, people are tapped out, either with credit card debt or they are "house poor." Some say peoples "savings" are different in this day in age, they put it in the stock market. Well, hope they don't withdraw! High gas prices will continue to erode profits. I think commercial building is going to grind to a halt, very very soon. All kinds of stores were just built here in NW Norman and I think it was a complete waste as the same stores already exist a few miles N of here! The economy is contracting, last weeks data was horrible! I am surprised the market held.
There are a lot of "firsts" for the economy right now...therefore, I do not necessarily trust past indicators. What is the intermediate term upside to the market? 1400? What's the downside? FUBAR! There is a gigantic sinkhole forming right now under the economy! I can hear the shifting sands.
My 2 cents...although Birchtree is much more experienced than I am.
I just don't have a very good feeling about all this. Record cash reserves...but A) Whose cash and B) What is there to invest in? Seems to me like the rich get richer and the people who made the rich rich are getting poorer (more in debt). Super cheap money is drying up. I currently have a student loan at 1.875%, a car loan at 0%, and a 30 yr fixed at 5.75%. I got used to very cheap credit card offers, like 0-5%. Now, I'm getting a barrage of junk mail touting rates that are downright insulting in comparison! To me, this seems like a last gasp. Nobody who is qualified for more credit is going to go for it at such high rates, and the people who would go for it may not be approved. Savings rate is negative, people are tapped out, either with credit card debt or they are "house poor." Some say peoples "savings" are different in this day in age, they put it in the stock market. Well, hope they don't withdraw! High gas prices will continue to erode profits. I think commercial building is going to grind to a halt, very very soon. All kinds of stores were just built here in NW Norman and I think it was a complete waste as the same stores already exist a few miles N of here! The economy is contracting, last weeks data was horrible! I am surprised the market held.
There are a lot of "firsts" for the economy right now...therefore, I do not necessarily trust past indicators. What is the intermediate term upside to the market? 1400? What's the downside? FUBAR! There is a gigantic sinkhole forming right now under the economy! I can hear the shifting sands.
hessian
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 23
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Hi Birch,
Following thread, started yesterday (with 3 videos total), seem to be painting quite a different picture. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=150237#post150237
Charts referenced in video:http://federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/
If there's a different interpretation, I'm always open to differing perspectives.
VR
PS Check 350Z's AcctTalk - he just posted on this, coincidentally.
Hi Birch,
Following thread, started yesterday (with 3 videos total), seem to be painting quite a different picture. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=150237#post150237
Charts referenced in video:http://federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/
If there's a different interpretation, I'm always open to differing perspectives.
VR
PS Check 350Z's AcctTalk - he just posted on this, coincidentally.
Last edited:
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I have not viewed the clips, but thankyou for the offer. I don't really want the negative exposure so I'll refrain. My rule of thumb; you don't panic, and you don't change your strategy if markets go down, because they do go down from time to time. Volatility is the price you pay in order to get the kind of superior return that equity exposure gives you. I'll keep my head in the sand - thankyou.
I have not viewed the clips, but thankyou for the offer. I don't really want the negative exposure so I'll refrain. My rule of thumb; you don't panic, and you don't change your strategy if markets go down, because they do go down from time to time. Volatility is the price you pay in order to get the kind of superior return that equity exposure gives you. I'll keep my head in the sand - thankyou.
Warrenlm
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 93
Re: Birchtree's account talk
But the question in everyone's mind is not about the ups and downs right now ..... it's about the 2000-2003 lengthy down. Is any slight up the time to bail and come back later. There were lots of opportunities in the last long bear market to avoid the bottom and rejoin when it started back up.
But the question in everyone's mind is not about the ups and downs right now ..... it's about the 2000-2003 lengthy down. Is any slight up the time to bail and come back later. There were lots of opportunities in the last long bear market to avoid the bottom and rejoin when it started back up.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Please review my post #2696 and look at the IBES graph for some direction. The current situation has very few similarities to 2000-2003. I still see no signs of a bear market - only a correction in a mega trend secular bull market.
Please review my post #2696 and look at the IBES graph for some direction. The current situation has very few similarities to 2000-2003. I still see no signs of a bear market - only a correction in a mega trend secular bull market.
