Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As Mindy Lou has remined me recently: You can be very right about your outlook, but be very wrong in your timing. I'll have plenty of buying time all the way up.

 

[camper65]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"2 cents"
Gold is down/10yr. note interest up/ oil is down and the Rus 2K is leading the way. (Up .6 %) Could be market is putting itself in position for a rate cut?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Many of the McClellan Oscillator indexes are currently in the process of building powerful divergent structures. It's quite rare to move into recession while the Fed is lowering interest rates as they have with substantial cuts likely to come. As long as last weeks MCO lows are not taken out, we have now entered our base building or construction period. I have to believe we are seeing a major low in the making - similar to that of 2003 or bigger. Yesterday, the NYSE TRIN was at 4.27 and is screaming MAJOR bottom. The last time we had two separate TRINs over 4 within 2-3 week period was March 2003. One thing for sure, the rally out of this bottom is likely to be remarkable. Snort.

 

[presskh]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Many of the McClellan Oscillator indexes are currently in the process of building powerful divergent structures. It's quite rare to move into recession while the Fed is lowering interest rates as they have with substantial cuts likely to come. As long as last weeks MCO lows are not taken out, we have now entered our base building or construction period. I have to believe we are seeing a major low in the making - similar to that of 2003 or bigger. Yesterday, the NYSE TRIN was at 4.27 and is screaming MAJOR bottom. The last time we had two separate TRINs over 4 within 2-3 week period was March 2003. One thing for sure, the rally out of this bottom is likely to be remarkable. Snort.

I hope it's not remarkably short!

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How about that XLF showing signs of a bottom? I've been saying since July that Financials were going to be the telling indicator of the market strength. JPM, WFC, BAC/CFC merge, and C's sink are bringing rays of hope to this severely damaged sector.

 

[weatherweenie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How about that XLF showing signs of a bottom? I've been saying since July that Financials were going to be the telling indicator of the market strength. JPM, WFC, BAC/CFC merge, and C's sink are bringing rays of hope to this severely damaged sector.

They were talking about retail showing signs of life today on CNBC, fwiw.

 

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

They were talking about retail showing signs of life today on CNBC, fwiw.

ignore all that...its gonna be a massive train wreck....avoid all stocks...if you ride this train you 'll you gonna lock in some massive losses thats gonna takes years to recover.....be right....get out .....cut your losses .............the ol bear is gonna have his day.....and its gonna be a long hard winter!

 

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

just out...anti-dressants suck accordingto nejm...more bad news and another sell-off tommorrow...fda investigating ....drug company seel off coming....the bottom is endless

 

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

s&p now at 14 month low and sinking fast.....jobs report out tommorow and it could be ugly.....the real pain is here....no bottom in sight valero down graded..wow.... it really getting ugly!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mr. Recognizer,

My friend this salty dog has been to the bottom of the well many times over the years. This consolidation is just one more tribute to foolishness. I buy and play for the longer term and don't mind being hit every now and then by the train. After all, I own the holy grail so I can withstand the pummelling body blows. This too shall pass. The advance-decline line wasn't bad today. A price bottom of longer term importance is within range of taking place - this reminds me of the triple bottom I experienced in July 2002, October 2002 and March 2003 - only now the time intervals are shortened in 30 days rather than months. When you take a look from the longer term view you realize this damage is minimal. Shop the values my friend because when fear rules the best opportunities surface. The 5-day MA of TRIN is at a level that happened only twice in 10 years and March 10, 2003 was one of those times.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mr. Recognizer,

My friend this salty dog has been to the bottom of the well many times over the years. This consolidation is just one more tribute to foolishness. I buy and play for the longer term and don't mind being hit every now and then by the train. After all, I own the holy grail so I can withstand the pummelling body blows. This too shall pass. The advance-decline line wasn't bad today. A price bottom of longer term importance is within range of taking place - this reminds me of the triple bottom I experienced in July 2002, October 2002 and March 2003 - only now the time intervals are shortened in 30 days rather than months. When you take a look from the longer term view you realize this damage is minimal. Shop the values my friend because when fear rules the best opportunities surface. The 5-day MA of TRIN is at a level that happened only twice in 10 years and March 10, 2003 was one of those times.

Dennis - permabull #1

sorry..cant see riding this bear train down...even the agg's got crushed today...not my way to buy and hold this ol bear

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I want my DCA - this is special. A gift for the taking.

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mr. Recognizer,

My friend this salty dog has been to the bottom of the well many times over the years. This consolidation is just one more tribute to foolishness. I buy and play for the longer term and don't mind being hit every now and then by the train. After all, I own the holy grail so I can withstand the pummelling body blows. This too shall pass. The advance-decline line wasn't bad today. A price bottom of longer term importance is within range of taking place - this reminds me of the triple bottom I experienced in July 2002, October 2002 and March 2003 - only now the time intervals are shortened in 30 days rather than months. When you take a look from the longer term view you realize this damage is minimal. Shop the values my friend because when fear rules the best opportunities surface. The 5-day MA of TRIN is at a level that happened only twice in 10 years and March 10, 2003 was one of those times.

Dennis - permabull #1

So far 1370 has held. The Fed Put.... Waiting to see if Henry goes 100% long.


Good support at SPX 1370, which is the March 2007 correction lows. However, this level will continue to be tested in the coming weeks. Will it hold? Many Bears and now Main Street and Wall Street all think we are headed to 1250. Is it that easy to make money shorting the market these days. Maybe it is, but how many more Bears can we put in this Boat.

Even Larry K. is having a hard time finding Bulls for his show. Dennis, you need to give him a call.

Take Care!

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

ignore all that...its gonna be a massive train wreck....avoid all stocks...if you ride this train you 'll you gonna lock in some massive losses thats gonna takes years to recover.....be right....get out .....cut your losses .............the ol bear is gonna have his day.....and its gonna be a long hard winter!

Ok, thanks for the Technical tip. I'm going to pull out around 500k out of stocks tomorrow.

Heck, I'll even pay all the capital gains this year, because the Government needs the money to fight the war.

At least your not charging me for that advice. I'm paying some good money to paid services and they are telling me the same thing. On the other side, I also have some folks telling me, STOCKS are on SALE.

Mr. Recognizer, you could be correct. However, there is also a good chance you are incorrect and we are close to a short-term bottom and a tradeable rally.

I do agree with you that the technicals are very bad, Wall Street is Bearish, Main Street is Bearish, CNBC talking Heads are Bearish, which ususally means we may be close to a short-term rally.

Anyway, I agree things do suck out there.

We shall see!

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Last weeks initial claims were only 322K. I thought we want >350K to ensure a recession? I'd still like to see the next employment report before making a rash judgement on the overall employment picture.

From briefing:

The 350K+ for claims is worrisome as a 360+K level for the 4 week average has been consistent with recession -- 362K in 1990 and 373K in 2001.

 

[Oldcoin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I want my DCA - this is special. A gift for the taking.

Yeah man, Dire Straits.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Is it that easy to make money shorting the market these days. Maybe it is, but how many more Bears can we put in this Boat.

I agree. If it's so obvious that this market is going down like it's 1929, then I'm skeptical.

Up till Wednesday it was 'obvious' to get into Agriculture and Gold. Past two days have been heavy selling days for GLD. Agriculture showing signs of a major reversal since beginning of '08.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Last weeks initial claims were only 322K. I thought we want >K to ensure a recession? I'd still like to see the next employment report before making a rash judgment on the overall employment picture.

From briefing:

The 350K+ for claims is worrisome as a 360+K level for the 4 week average has been consistent with recession -- K in 1990 and K in 2001.

Claims came in at 301K....that's 2 months in a row of decreasing initial claims. World markets are up today...I fund up over 1.00% as I type (weeeee!). New home construction was absolutely abysmal...but big surprise there! Now we need Ben to kick it in the a$$ with some shock and awe for a nice rally (which will top out, then tank again...hahaha).

 

[Boxholder]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Personally, I think the agriculture stocks took such a hit because Cramer said sell, sell, sell on his Monday show. He advised taking profits after advising buy, buy, buy a week or two earlier. He may be a former hedge fund manager but he still knows how to work the market. By now, he's probably already buying again. Good article below on the ag stocks:
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/01/16/agricultural-stocks-take-a-hit/?mod=yahoo_hs

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The water at the bottom of the well is turning red today - but I'm still fortunate because sharks don't swim in fresh water. I will have to keep an eye open for Gators though.