Birchtree's Account Talk

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

the real story is GOLD and SILVER...DUMP stocks and buy the precious metals...its the only way to go...the real moey can me made this year only with PRECIOUS METALS!

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Think about this. More rate cuts on the way and that will make the Dollar weaker and commodities stronger. Oil will go to $120, Gold to $1000, and Silver to $20. Back in 2003 and 2004 I was buying silver 1 oz. rounds and bars for $6.50 to $8.00 a ounce. I think the most I paid was $10 and I could not take it anymore because it had to be a top. I still got them and will hold until the rate cuts stop.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And now Silver is over $16 a ounce.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Think about this. More rate cuts on the way and that will make the Dollar weaker and commodities stronger. Oil will go to $120, Gold to $1000, and Silver to $20. Back in 2003 and 2004 I was buying silver 1 oz. rounds and bars for $6.50 to $8.00 a ounce. I think the most I paid was $10 and I could not take it anymore because it had to be a top. I still got them and will hold until the rate cuts stop.

In 1980 I was buying "Bonds" or "Federal Reserve Notes" with a guaranteed interest rate of at least 15%. These were a bit more expensive that your typical Bonds - but these are different days SHOW-ME. Today's generation is "I want it all and I want it now" and we will ALL pay the price for this overiding mentality.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I need to correct an error I made on one of my last posts. I stated the wrong figures for GDP. The 3Q came in at 4.9% and the expectation is that 4Q will come in at 1.5% to 2% - I think it will be closer to 3%. Merrill says we are going to S&P 500 value of 1250 because we broke the long term trend line - that's so much bull tinky on their part. Even if it does, as long as my aggs stay up I'll peel off and buy all the way down. I knew that holy grail would come in handy someday.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain,

In 1980 that was a 30 year bond and it only cost $50 and yielding 15%. No one would go near them because they thought inflation was going to last forever. By 1983 the inflation game was broke and the 30 year bond was on its way to par at $100. That's a wondeful capital gain and it was still paying 15%. Ah, to be a contrarian in an insane financial world.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A price bottom of longer term importance is within range of taking place as all of the willing and unwilling sellers run away in fear in owning stocks. In retail real estate most of the country's largest malls are owned by huge public companies that are financially equiped to survive a downturn, but the stocks of many of them are trading near their 52 week lows. Also the housing builder index is down over 55% in a year - that's why I'm a buyer of both sectors.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

All the red heads are talking about the death of consumer spending pulling the economy into recession - how silly.

"U.S. cponsumer borrowing rose at an annual rate of 7.4% in November, the fastest pace in three months, the Federal Reserve said. The 0.6% monthly increase in consumer credit outstanding, to $2.505 trillion, is a positive sign for consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity. Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of just 1% in October or 0.08% for the month.

The Fed said revolving credit - largely credit-card financing - grew at an 11.3% rate to $937.5 billion, the fastest pace in six months.

Household' nonrevolving credit, such as car and boat loans, rose at an annualized 5.1% pace to $1.568 trillion, rebounding from October's drop in that category, the Fed said."

The British economy inflation rate for December is expected to be reported Jan. 15 - the previous rate is at 2.1%.

http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us

 

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

All the red heads are talking about the death of consumer spending pulling the economy into recession - how silly.

"U.S. cponsumer borrowing rose at an annual rate of 7.4% in November, the fastest pace in three months, the Federal Reserve said. The 0.6% monthly increase in consumer credit outstanding, to $2.505 trillion, is a positive sign for consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity. Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of just 1% in October or 0.08% for the month.

The Fed said revolving credit - largely credit-card financing - grew at an 11.3% rate to $937.5 billion, the fastest pace in six months.

Household' nonrevolving credit, such as car and boat loans, rose at an annualized 5.1% pace to $1.568 trillion, rebounding from October's drop in that category, the Fed said."

The British economy inflation rate for December is expected to be reported Jan. 15 - the previous rate is at 2.1%.

http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us

all one has to do is buy gold and silver and they will do just fine...forget about stocks for now...just my 2 cents worth.....

 

[anthony]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

all one has to do is buy gold and silver and they will do just fine...forget about stocks for now...just my 2 cents worth.....

That idea seems a little backward. My understanding from limited reading is that gold is at an all time high. Combine that with a weak dollar, and it seems that buying gold now would not set one up for success. What indicators are you watching that make you think gold will gain or hold current value, and would therefore justify the purchase?

If we are indeed heading into a short term down trend or at the very least heading into some good volatility to work with, maybe to mid-2008, then I think buying stocks all the way down to the bottom is the better long-term DCA approach. The stock prices of some very good companies are getting mauled right now and those investors who pick them up on the way down will be rewarded for their courage in the next two-three years.

 

[merlin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If you were already in gold you should be selling. buy low sell high.

 

[Robo5555]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If you were already in gold you should be selling. buy low sell high.

Yeap!!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The top long term capital gains tax rate on securities - and on most dividend income - is typically 15% for 2008, unchanged from last year. But the rate is zero this year to the extent your income, including capital gains and most dividends, places you in the two lowest ordinary income-tax brackets. (This applies only to long term gains - those on securities held for more than a year - and most dividends paid by corporation.) For 2008, this new zero rate mainly benefits single individuals whose taxable income doesn't exceed $32,500, and joint filers whose taxable income doesn't exceed $65,100. Can you visualize the opportunity a retired person would have if they were in control of their retirement income and had access to capital gains and dividends? That's the benefit of a defined contribution plan - you take only what you want for income.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

They are running my aggs again today - might as well just sit back for the week and let the profits build. The CRB index is putting in record highs. The new secular bull market in stocks from the 2002 lows is taking place in the context of a commodity bull market and a maturing, multi-decade downtrend in yields. It would seem, therefore, that this new uptrend has the potential to be an inflationary bull, making it more similar to the 1940s to 1960s. A final point of comparison: the period from the end of World War 11 to the 1960s wads a period of global infrastructure development. That period of infrastructure development has parallels today in the emerging economies.

The market doesn't know how old you are - it's the cycle, not your age that matters most.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"While the S&P 500 is less than 121/2 % off its intraday high from October, individual stocks are fairing far worse. The average stock in the S&P 1500 is now over 30% off its 52-week high. Grouping stocks by their market caps shows that while large caps have been holding up better than average, small caps have been decimated." Check the link for graphs.

http://www.bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/01/average-decline.html

 

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

gold up $5.7 today...what a sweet ride this is.....dump the stocks and ride the GOLD train...the only game in town...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll stick with sweet superlative manure: MOS+10.33, CNH+4.61, LNN+4.95, AG+4.25, TRA+3.74, CF+7.25. Gold is a place to hide while manure makes the portfolio grow.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch I took advantage of some of the ultra shorts and a little D Kass so not to bad a day. I saw my father get chewed out for talking about specific amounts so I will just say it was a good day.

Greg

 

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

birch...what did you load up on today?...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I haven't done any buying yet today - gathering my courage to over come the $37K hit I took yesterday. It's all about pain and courage now. I'm not in any hurry to pull the trigger - but I suppose common sense will encourage me to spend at some point. Sometimes prudence is the better part of valor. Snort.