Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/burton-malkiel-on-octobers-rough-ride-hang-on

 

[Birchtree]

From my WSJ. "So the PCE index, which was up just 1.6% from a year earlier in August, looks as if it will soon start flashing even lower readings. The day when the Fed sees inflation hit its 2% target seems further and further away. That will make raising its target rate for overnight loans all the more difficult. It is looking more likely that the first rate increase will come in the second half of next year rather than the first. And when the Fed does start raising rates, it may only do so slowly."

 

[Birchtree]

I just found out that I have another stock split on the way: Stantec (STN) 2 for 1 due November 14th - those are always nice.

 

[Birchtree]

Last week has my oceanic account had me back on the come back trail: +$50K, +$148K, -$84K, +$116K, +$27K for a positive gain of +$257K. Now if I could get another good week I'll be even for the month of October. I might even make some money for the year if the next two months cooperate. I'm now up to 138 dividend increase announcements - two months left to reach 158. These dividend increases will hopefully go on for years to come building my income stream.

 

[Birchtree]

Bullish Conviction Returns, But Market Likely To Consolidate Its V-Bottom | Seeking Alpha

 

[Birchtree]

I just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in and bought: TEN and NFX. Oil service is the play for value.

 

[Birchtree]

Market Summary | Gregory Clay | Safehaven.com

 

[hotwings]

Very good article.. Thanks for sharing.

 

[jpcavin]

Very good article.. Thanks for sharing.

I second that. Just finished reading it.

 

[kave]

I second that. Just finished reading it.

Just wish I understood more of it!! :blink:

 

[jpcavin]

Just wish I understood more of it!! :blink:

I think in a nutshell, it's saying that even if the Fed delivers bad news, the market as a whole will do well. Just my take.

 

[Birchtree]

Small caps are leading the fire today with the R2K up better than 23 points - that means many targets are falling for us gun owners.

 

[Birchtree]

The markets are certainly having a nice day.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47715.html

 

[Birchtree]

OK here we go for the next two years anyway. "The central bank's ultraloose monetary stimulus has played a role in boosting prices of stocks to record high this year and kept bond yields near historic lows. Investors now are worried that the Fed may start raising official interest rates sooner than anticipated. Many investors were surprised to see a relatively optimistic assessment of the outlook for the U.S. economy given a recent focus on economic woes in Europe and low inflation in the U.S." It would appear that 2015 will be an excellent year to stay long.

 

[markmars]

Bond yields have been too low for too long. We will see what happens now.

OK here we go for the next two years anyway. "The central bank's ultraloose monetary stimulus has played a role in boosting prices of stocks to record high this year and kept bond yields near historic lows. Investors now are worried that the Fed may start raising official interest rates sooner than anticipated. Many investors were surprised to see a relatively optimistic assessment of the outlook for the U.S. economy given a recent focus on economic woes in Europe and low inflation in the U.S." It would appear that 2015 will be an excellent year to stay long.

 

[Birchtree]

You know what is going to happen to the bond market - it just takes time since the bond market is ten times larger than the stock market. If history is any guide rising rates should also mean rising stocks. In fact those years of consistently increasing rates are some of the best in the history of the benchmark S&P 500 index. I'll be staying long with the opportunity to make a few more millions of dollars.

 

[Bill3438]

With the elections leading toward republicans don't you feel it will be a big jump up in the market.

 

[kb9nvh]

I certainly do and just increased exposure to C and S COB today. Of course, when Obama got elected I just into G and languished for 5 years or so missing the giant run up due to quantatative easing. So, do exactly opposite what I think and you will be ahead.

 

[kb9nvh]

Damn..

 

[Birchtree]

It's a mega trend secular bull market - where have you heard that before - go ahead and play on the rails. The Grand Trunk is off in the distance. I'm still set for a 2400 SPX and as close as I can get to Dow 24,000 by year end.