Birchtree's Account Talk

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It looks like I won't meet my +$300K objective for October unless the popularity of Facebook lifts all my small cap boats tomorrow. November is in sight.
 
Birchtree said:
It looks like I won't meet my +$300K objective for October unless the popularity of Facebook lifts all my small cap boats tomorrow. November is in sight.
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need to start having fun with your $$$, lets see some Bugatti Veyron on your thread, its much more interesting than articles of the market.
 
I'm seeing more and more 3 and 4 point price gains for individual stocks across the spectrum - this is going to create intense anxiety for the sideliners. They are really going to have to pay up to get in knowing the bus travels fastest with fewer on board. I'm surely glad my base has been built over the last four years and now I just collect the rewards. And remember those who take the most risks reap the most rewards. It looks like October has killed a few more bears.
 
I did not achieve my goal for October and I will now concentrate my energies for November. I did however make some money for the month of October and here are the weekly totals: +$37K, +$42K, +$129K, +$66K, -$49K for a grand total lock down of +$225K. September I had a gain of +$280K and if you add them up you get +$505K for the two month period. Not bad. Now I have to do the same for the next two months. My total gain for the ten month period is, wait for it, +$1.133M. Not bad. And I fully expect to do even better during 2014. So we'll see how the holiday season triumphs with dollars. I'll be rotating some of my gains starting in January pushing up potential and creating some cash for a lake place down payment. I owe my good fortune to the lame duck in the White House and his grid lock. Snort.
 
Birchtree said:
I did not achieve my goal for October and I will now concentrate my energies for November. I did however make some money for the month of October and here are the weekly totals: +$37K, +$42K, +$129K, +$66K, -$49K for a grand total lock down of +$225K. September I had a gain of +$280K and if you add them up you get +$505K for the two month period. Not bad. Now I have to do the same for the next two months. My total gain for the ten month period is, wait for it, +$1.133M. Not bad. And I fully expect to do even better during 2014. So we'll see how the holiday season triumphs with dollars. I'll be rotating some of my gains starting in January pushing up potential and creating some cash for a lake place down payment. I owe my good fortune to the lame duck in the White House and his grid lock. Snort.
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Nice, is that short-hand for taking profits...
 
Yes, after five years of the bull I'll be doing some select harvesting - taking some capital gains won't hurt as much since my wife will be retiring. I'll be trying to keep a handle on my AGI to stay under the Obamacare radar taxes. There will come a time when dividend reinvestments won't be that helpful because pricing is so much higher rendering fewer shares to be purchased. Capital appreciation will be the strategy going forward taking opportunity of further volatility - it'll be fun. Kyle Bass: "Fed won't raise interest rates for another 3-5 years; stocks the only game in town."
 
This is one of my favorite quotes: "This market is likely to suck everyone in no matter how stretched everything becomes and no matter how great the risk of being cast into perdition in the pyroclastic collapse to come." Isn't it great?

"Those wearing the rose colored Ray Bans argue that the fundamental back drop for stocks remains positive and that any dips should be bought for the foreseeable future. November starts and finishes strong."

Daily State Of The Markets: What Do The Cycles Say For November? - Seeking Alpha
 
My contribution to all the new members from an old dog. A properly allocated portfolio doesn't need to be rejiggered everytime the weather changes. Don't be in a rush - learn before you churn. Pretty simple words to invest by.
 
Birchtree said:
My contribution to all the new members from an old dog. A properly allocated portfolio doesn't need to be rejiggered everytime the weather changes. Don't be in a rush - learn before you churn. Pretty simple words to invest by.
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I have put superglue on my hands and using my nose on a touch screen to type and staying 70/30 in S&I, and was optimistic as all get out reading your posts, but my dilemma is when do I bail and park that hard earned cash in G? I really want to retire in 3 more years, and I waited until the end of my tenure to finally put the chips on the roulette table and be more aggressive after the 08 crash.
I'm trying to learn:)
 
You might contemplate the G fund sometime before 2022 - until then you're in good shape staying long. I prefer the C fund for outperformance over the S fund. I'm holding 20C/80I for the next several years. Remember that after you retire you're still an investor and we are in the early stages of a mega trend secular bull market that could last another two decades.
 
Birchtree said:
I did not achieve my goal for October and I will now concentrate my energies for November. I did however make some money for the month of October and here are the weekly totals: +$37K, +$42K, +$129K, +$66K, -$49K for a grand total lock down of +$225K. September I had a gain of +$280K and if you add them up you get +$505K for the two month period. Not bad. Now I have to do the same for the next two months. My total gain for the ten month period is, wait for it, +$1.133M. Not bad. And I fully expect to do even better during 2014. So we'll see how the holiday season triumphs with dollars. I'll be rotating some of my gains starting in January pushing up potential and creating some cash for a lake place down payment. I owe my good fortune to the lame duck in the White House and his grid lock. Snort.
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Congratulations on a fine year. Since the DNC has learned that you appreciate their leader so much, expect the basket to be passed your way.
 
It turned out to be a down week for my oceanic account: -$6K, +$17K, -$50K, -$10K, +$10K for a give back of -$39K. Anyway the long term flow of money in my accounts is at all time highs - so I'm satisfied. We could easily go parabolic next week creating a fall melt up - just stay tuned.
 
I've been wondering what the next 4 months will bring. We are certainly in a friendly trend that continues to suggest more gains ahead - so I'm staying fully invested. But how much potential gains is the question. Looking back into 2012 my oceanic account in January posted a +$283K gain, February posted a +$128K gain, December posted a +$200K gain and November posted a +$48K gain. The next four months have some nice potential. It does look like the manufacturing sector is experiencing a V shaped recovery which will support earnings and GDP. If I can pump up my long market value by another +$0.5M in the next two months I'm a happy camper. This is really no time to be pusillanimous - you have to swing big when it seems outrageous to be doing so. Will we see a hyperdrive market - lordy I hope so. Snort.
 
Birchtree said:
I've been wondering what the next 4 months will bring. We are certainly in a friendly trend that continues to suggest more gains ahead - so I'm staying fully invested. But how much potential gains is the question. Looking back into 2012 my oceanic account in January posted a +$283K gain, February posted a +$128K gain, December posted a +$200K gain and November posted a +$48K gain. The next four months have some nice potential. It does look like the manufacturing sector is experiencing a V shaped recovery which will support earnings and GDP. If I can pump up my long market value by another +$0.5M in the next two months I'm a happy camper. This is really no time to be pusillanimous - you have to swing big when it seems outrageous to be doing so. Will we see a hyperdrive market - lordy I hope so. Snort.
Click to expand...

BT,

Hope you have been DCAing into some of your favorite Coal plays over the past few weeks...
 
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