Birchtree's Account Talk

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Well October went out like a lamb leaving my oceanic account with a -$1K loss. November is starting out just right and could be strong the entire month. If that happens I coulkd see a +$400K gain to make up for May. Benghazigate is becoming pivotal in this race - more and more voters are learning the truth and the landslide is evident. And the toasted Obama-Baloney goodbye rally continues to smack the bears. Now if only the government would let that poor slep that made the infamous video out of prison - why are they still holding him?
 
Why do you believe in a true blast off right after a pullback? The business investors talk about uncertainty being the retardant. But with a GOP House, what will have changed until months of time allows some grand bargain, more lasting than the erstwhile grand bargain to get a brief fix? Do you expect the House to roll over? Do you expect the Prez to now suddenly cut entitlements near term vice 100 years from now? Why wouldn't we see continued uncertainty retarding growth?
 
Warren - I think Congress is under extreme pressure to kick the can down the road again, and there's little to prevent them from doing so as long as Ben can keep interest rates low, so they will. When you look at how significant the coming tax hikes are (I was looking at this link the other day, the rate hikes, the social security 2% hike, then when I added in the marriage penalty due to standard deductions changing it got really depressing: 2013 Federal Income Tax Update - Tax - United States , in my case a pay cut of nearly $300 every 2 weeks, ouch, muliply that by a couple hundred million people and it's a massive problem that people are fully expecting Congress will prevent). I don't think it really matters what happens in the election (and I expect continued gridlock, which is probably a good thing for those of us Feds that aren't retired yet), something will be done to at least soften the blow.

I'm also a strong believer in the "megaphone" pattern that will result in the markets reaching one more all time high some time between late 2013 and late 2014, as per Binve's Elliott wave counts for example:
Market Thoughts and Analysis: Long Term Projection, Macro, and an Analysis Retrospective
If Congress or the EU disappoints though, I could quickly change my mind. :D
 
Argh, sorry, 3 days ago that mondaq.com link did not require a registration to see it like it does now...this was one of the bullets in it that I wasn't aware of, and since we refinanced the mortgage this year and the interest is so low that we will no longer itemize and will instead use the standard deduction, this one added to the depressing total of tax hikes for 2013:

  • Decrease in standard deduction for married taxpayers filing jointly. The standard deduction for married taxpayers filing jointly will decrease to 167% (rather than the current 200%) of the standard deduction for unmarried taxpayers (currently $5,950). In 2012 dollars, this would lower the standard deduction for joint filers from $11,900 to $9,900.
 
I don't mean to take opportunity of a bad situation like Sandy - but my oceanic account is in good position to benefit from the rebuilding recovery. I just happened to be in the right place at the wrong time. So let the spending begin.
 
Tsunami said:
Warren - I think Congress is under extreme pressure to kick the can down the road again, and there's little to prevent them from doing so as long as Ben can keep interest rates low, so they will. When you look at how significant the coming tax hikes are (I was looking at this link the other day, the rate hikes, the social security 2% hike, then when I added in the marriage penalty due to standard deductions changing it got really depressing: 2013 Federal Income Tax Update - Tax - United States , in my case a pay cut of nearly $300 every 2 weeks, ouch, muliply that by a couple hundred million people and it's a massive problem that people are fully expecting Congress will prevent). I don't think it really matters what happens in the election (and I expect continued gridlock, which is probably a good thing for those of us Feds that aren't retired yet), something will be done to at least soften the blow.

I'm also a strong believer in the "megaphone" pattern that will result in the markets reaching one more all time high some time between late 2013 and late 2014, as per Binve's Elliott wave counts for example:
Market Thoughts and Analysis: Long Term Projection, Macro, and an Analysis Retrospective
If Congress or the EU disappoints though, I could quickly change my mind. :D
Click to expand...

Thanks. I think I misunderstood your earlier post to mean you expected a Romney/Reagan like rally soon after this month. As to the increases in taxes, specifics were designed to be hidden until after this election. If everyone's withholding went up 60% suddenly, there would be revolution. The combined modest increases and currency degradation will keep us all just simmering.

BTW since we've trained millions to rely on the EIC, WIC, SNAP, TANF and some actually file tax returns to get the $5000 refund, what would a 60% increase in negative $5000 be? :)
 
The Market is responding to the up coming ROMNEY recovery, if today was due to Obama's economic strategy it would surly crash.
 
All I have to do today is take in $6K for my Birchtree 300 fund for a +$100K three day pop - but it may not happen. Although I also have 8 dividends due for reinvestment - so it remains exciting nonetheless. My bullish friends may step in later to grab some golden prices and push us higher.
 
Here are the last three trading days fast and furious action: +$17K, +$77K, -$57K for a gain of +$37K. I'm now +$20K for the month of November.
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Looks like Wall St is starting to price in an Obama Win.
Birch, you get to ride this Obama-wave with me...I got in yesterday COB....saw bottoming and saw Obama looking very presidential with Christie in NJ and Romney looking very, well, Romney-ish, packing a few fruit baskets in Ohio (saying he's sending them to NJ) and pretending he's the small scale privatized version of FEMA...just pathetic.

Markets can calm down now, now that they realize Obama now wins...Bernanke (and low rates) stay, and even HC Insurance companies can relax since they prefer to get 35 million new paying customers.

So welcome to the Obama Express rally...you're in for the ride, even if you don't realize who the engineer of the train really is. (lol).
Click to expand...

If Obama looks presidential now, how has he looked previously...bernanke is "retiring" seems like a precursor to the election, since Romney said he will fire him
 
I'm with Dick Morris on this one - a landslide is in the making. The November market could run away to the upside with so many sitting on the sidelines - all I need to make is another +$380K to meet my monthly goal since I didn't set one for October.
 
You may be right, Birch. I do see pockets of confidence in a Romney victory out there. Kenneth Bicker's research is one place. My how the remainder of the CU campus must hate his study's results!

However, I moved out of the S Fund to safety today. Maybe I've listened too much to the mainstream media and I will be wrong, but I think an Obama victory is being priced in and tomorrow (Tues) may even reflect that with a down day, before the election results are even announced. In this case I think a multi-week slide will occur as the campaign hangover slowly becomes the debt-ceiling/Fiscal cliff round 2 clash.

If Romney surprises then I think I will need to quickly use my 2nd move to get on the rocket. But, a Romney win will lead to lots of tantrums, harsh rhetoric and bad feelings in the coastal urban areas where people live that think they are smarter than the rest of us.
 
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