Birchtree's Account Talk

BT, Do you think this is end of the quarter window dressing? These 7 percent rally's are becoming commonplace and are being sold regularly. I'm afraid of taking the money and running when I think 1 of these rally's will stick. Thoughts?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

A few more nibble dollars down the deep well: TRW, AME, ALB, CBI, VHI, JCI, RES. I used to think making $100K a week was real good money - today I'm up +$103K - hope I can hold on to it into the close. This rally has the potential to really explode because of so much myopic loss aversion in the arena.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

JamesE,

This market can drop a hundred points in a flash or bound forward 100 points to over 300 on the Dow. I'm running with the bulls because there is so much positive type numbers out there - you just have to look for them.
 
BT, Do you think this is end of the quarter window dressing? These 7 percent rally's are becoming commonplace and are being sold regularly. I'm afraid of taking the money and running when I think 1 of these rally's will stick. Thoughts?

Maybe building into a 4th quarter surge. Christmas stuff on the store shelves already.
 
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Maybe building into a 4th quarter surge. Christmas stuff on the store shelves already.

Yea, I guess Howlaween is a flop. Lowes is already moving it to the back shelf and making room for Thanksgiving and Christmas. They're starting the setups now so they can get them arranged befor black friday without seasonal hires.
 
I'm waiting on the rocket boosters to kick in when we get over +300 Dow points - fear should be aggressively bought, never sold. "How the market behaves between 1230 and 1260 will go a long way in helping sort out the debate between the bulls and the bears. If the S&P 500 barrels through these levels in impressive fashion, it would obviously be a win for the bulls. If a down reversal does occur, the manner in which the market comes down will be very important. If we see a pull back on weaker volume, then it may represent a good entry point for bullish positions. If the reversal is swift, backed by volume, and negative market breadth, then the bearish case will remain firmly intact."
 
I'm waiting on the rocket boosters to kick in when we get over +300 Dow points
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We should know by now that just the act of saying something publicly, guarantees the opposite will be true. :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE-cMavkmcY
 
I'm so proud of myself. I was in the top 50 at +8% in July and now I am #369 on the tracker list. Wait a minute, I'm going the wrong way.:mad:
 
I am coming back though. Already gained some ground in my Roth. Now if I can just get my TSP recovery (miracle) underway.
No kidding, with 3-4 day ups and down (oh, and they are HARD to pinpoint), getting good entry and exits on a noon deadline is, well, A PAIN...

Good luck :)
 
And they're about to get cheaper...

P/E is not all that relevant when, as now, E is overstated, revised downwards, and guiding lower.

P/E can fall as low as 8 (and in 2008/9 did) if expectations are not good, and they aren't, but this time it is world wide. Hope you understand this better, and now that you do, you will allocate your TSP funds accordingly. Not really, maybe you'll go 100% I-fund. Most likely - you'll do nothing at all.

This week is a high-wire act based on an unrealistic expectation of an early/soon European solution. Stingy Germans bailing out Greece. Good luck on that one. Sounds hopeless to me - - - but if a whole buncha traders will buy on it, I can be in on the short term, and I was (lowering allocation today).

Out.
 
I'll be riding the Grand Funk Railroad today - no buying, just relaxing. If we can hold a rally I'll be a strong buyer tomorrow.
 
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