Birchtree's Account Talk

[jpcavin]

Here are a few stocks that might fit well into a Roth IRA for consideration. Pfizer, which trades at a 8 times forward earnings, is paying a 4.5% dividend yield. Merck, also trading at 8 times forward earnings is paying a 4.7% dividend yield. Verizon, trading at 15 times forward earnings, is yielding 5.5% and AT&T, trading at 12 times forward earnings, is yielding 5.9%. Most utilities are yielding around 5%.

Dennis,
Can you tell me what it means to trade 8x forward or 15x forwad...etc??

 

[Birchtree]

It's the price over earnings and they are using the forward estimated earnings as the denominator. One way of looking at value. Those ratios will drop today making for better buys and thus higher yields. This is just more nonsense today from scared Europe.

 

[jpcavin]

Finally got off my butt last night and opened a Roth IRA. Just gotta make my stock picks now. Joy! :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

I'm going to hold my cheeks today and see how much damage I can endure - we may bounce some to mitigate the damage from sellers - so let'em sell. I've got cash to buy when I get my courage back.

 

[Birchtree]

If this is the retest of the previous bottom I think we are there enough for me. Volume is not all that heavy compared to the last time we experienced this fear panic selling - I'm trying to stay positive and get out of the way. Perhaps the close will look a little better.

 

[Birchtree]

The previous low on the Dow was 10,604 - hope we are not looking for that today. But we'll certainly get close. So I'll wait to see if any buyers show up. Let's do a flash mob bullish buy signal. Dow currently at 10,952 - VIX is back to the 42 level. Bring on the good machines.

 

[Birchtree]

The shame of it all is I only have 3 dividends due today. But when September gets here I've got around 75 dividends hitting my account - so I should still get some good prices on reinvestments - just trying to see some light. This fear may start to exhaust itself with low volume participation. Silly bears.

 

[FAB1]

Some folks here are excepting an upday tomorrow and I can see a snapback rally but it remains to be seen if another lower target is ahead of us. Those that got in may be wise to jump right back out if there is a rally.

 

[amoeba]

By now you've surely heard reveille. Take a break and post your buy list today.

buy nothing. be patient if you hold gold and US treasuries. KYAG if you are all-in.

No more clunkerfest/QE/TARP $$$ to the rescue this time. I do expect to win a $20 bet already placed on the next presidential election, and it's on anyone else except BO.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

The shame of it all is I only have 3 dividends due today. But when September gets here I've got around 75 dividends hitting my account - so I should still get some good prices on reinvestments - just trying to see some light. This fear may start to exhaust itself with low volume participation. Silly bears.

VIX hitting 42 AGAIN and markets testing their day lows, maybe heading to the recent lows... now what???? Where are you getting all your optimism...

 

[amoeba]

The shame of it all is I only have 3 dividends due today. But when September gets here I've got around 75 dividends hitting my account - so I should still get some good prices on reinvestments - just trying to see some light. This fear may start to exhaust itself with low volume participation. Silly bears.

except it's high volume selling....and turning farther south in late trading today.

 

[Birchtree]

The volume in fact is not as high as the previous sell panic - now tomorrow might be a different story. The Bear is trying to shut down my buying program, so I'm on ice for a few days until we settle out. So I'll cool my jets for a few trading days. But I'm not out of the game yet.

 

[Handballer]

And your view of buying US Treasury I bonds is? I purchased 5K yesterday from Wells Fargo bank. That was all they would allow me to buy.

buy nothing. be patient if you hold gold and US treasuries. KYAG if you are all-in.

No more clunkerfest/QE/TARP $$$ to the rescue this time. I do expect to win a $20 bet already placed on the next presidential election, and it's on anyone else except BO.

 

[amoeba]

I'm going to hold my cheeks today and see how much damage I can endure - we may bounce some to mitigate the damage from sellers - so let'em sell. I've got cash to buy when I get my courage back.

And so do I (G-fund).

 

[Birchtree]

Last week I inquired with Merrill about the possibility of reducing my margin interest rate from 5.25%. The call came in this morning that my interest rate has been reduced to 2.75% - now that's a break I can use. If the market can continue to rally I'll be back in the market buying more wall flowers sometime today. This is a train I have to ride. In December I'll look back and congratulate myself for all those sweet DCAs into my oceanic account. Ive been encouraging my 30 year old daughter that she should wear her gold Woodstock bird I bought her years ago - telling her it demonstrates courage. She does wear her gold bracelet every day that probably has more than doubled in value.

 

[Birchtree]

"The Conferense Board's leading economic indicators (LEI), actually have been hitting new highs. In the last couple of weeks we've had a couple of days that are some of the most oversold in the last 50 years. That's typically how corrections end, not how bear markets start. Plus, the advance/decline line, which measures the ratio between the number of stocks that advance and the number that decline, actually hit a new high in July, weeks after the market peak of April 29-May 2. There's not a single market top in the past 70 years where breadth kept going after supposedly a bull market peak."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-bear-market-no-recession-smart-bull-says-2011-08-19

 

[jpcavin]

Birch

I've been seeing a lot of positive reviews for ABAT. I don't have noise filters. What is your opinion? Price is dirt cheap.
Also thinkink about getting some shares of WFC, GLW and/or ARR. Which do you think is a better buy? Again, good reviews on ARR.
I like the BAC prices but don't have much confidence in this one..

 

[amoeba]

It's been a long time since losing less than 2% per day felt good. But I don't feel good and don't have a dime in this quickly filling cathole. Large-volume selling of every index, for alot of the afternoon, to close pretty much on their lows for the day. Not sure how birch feels. I mean, whaddaya want? 1000 in the SPY? Ya wanna wait for 850, or 700, or lower?

BAC stock isn't worth the paper it is written on. Bad real estate loans. End of story.

Since it isn't available as a TSP option, why the heck we are talking about it is beyond me.

Yick.

 

[jpcavin]

Since it isn't available as a TSP option, why the heck we are talking about it is beyond me.
Yick.

1. Members on this board discuss their brokerage accounts all the time. 2. I was discussing it with Birch.

 

[Birchtree]

jp,

BAC is great for a Roth IRA where you can dollar cost average into low prices initially and then track on the way back up. I like GLW and bought some the other day. If we get any kind of relief next week I'm back in buying for the long term - reinvested another 4 dividends today so I feel somewhat gratified. Amoeba doesn't realize that negative headlines tend to produce the strongest advances in a bull market. So when the turn comes all the buying I've done so far in August will work in my favor instead of against me - i've made 197 individual purchases via dollar cost averaging since 8/5.