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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
alevin
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 97
Birch, those songs are way too melancholy for me-even tho I do like Johnny Mathis. Once my chiropractor and hand surgeon get my body back to feeling good, I'll be doin' great, especially now I don't have to worry about a leaky roof this fall and winter.
Maybe I'll even try the internet dating scene-within commuter distance. I've had friends had good luck with that in recent years-had to kiss a few not-too-ugly frogs at first, but they each finally found a prince. Or maybe I'll start looking around to relocate and find a new pool of frogs to check out.
Now. About that book of poetry....
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
"Examining at the market, it is apparent that investors have become extremely negative extremely quickly in the last few weeks. In fact, last week we saw multiple 90% down days, during which more than 90% of all trading volume was down. Unfortunately this is hardly unusual, it's typical of the investing public to overreact. In reality, the market is more likely close to a relative bottom rather than a top. We are now looking at oversold levels back to November 2008."
http://www.safehaven.com/article/17346/double-dippers-reject-reality
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
It looks like I may have been a bit premature when the market was sinking today down 152 - I did some selling to stay ahead of a potential margin call that was close behind my behind. So today wasn't too bad after all. At least now I have $60K to spend if we can stabilize at this level. I remember the end of January when I was at my daughter's wedding and I sold $227K to stay ahead of the game - I think this time will be different. We could have already bottomed - if not I'm ready to cover my self. The problem is I still haven't felt any sense of panic - where is my emotional equivalent. I'm ready to start spending some money as I chase this market back to the upside - my position is comfortable because I have planned for this eventuality - I've even added to my lamb chop account. I wish my knees were knocking like the amoeba.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
"While the above, along with imbalances around the world, means even higher risk in investing in stocks than 'normal', with nothing assured, we still feel that stocks over the longer-term will be a better place to invest than the remaining alternatives. But stocks cannot be for the faint of heart. Investors will need to take a deep breath and recognize the high degree of risk entailed. They must be able to focus on the long-term future potential rewards, and not on the potential paper losses that can easily be incurred along the way. Without such a state of mind, the seemingly endless battering that the news will likely inflict on investors' confidence level suggests that many people may want to perhaps redefine themselves 'conservative investors', meaning to some they stay clear of stocks altogether."
http://www.safehaven.com/article/17359/will-stock-investors-go-on-a-buyers-strike
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Warrenlm
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 93
Lots of talk about the panic emotion having been replaced with a sense of malaise and lack of Hope---temporarily. I guess that means that we have a chance of holding the line.....
if the do gooders who pay taxes but want to force everyone to contribute to good causes will join the reasonable restraint folks and put the House firmly in Republican hands.
A stalemate will be preferable to unfettered do gooderness. To hear the media, we need to borrow more money to help the unemployed forever, as if no one has had to make do with two jobs or move somewhere else, ever. There are 8 million stories in the Naked City. Now a word from James and Fire.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Good comments from Warrenlm. Change we can respect is on the way.
"Breadth is diverging massively during this final move down. The NYMO often diverges at these intermediate cycle bottoms. The divergence at this point is the largest in years."
http://financialsense.com/contributors/toby-connor/bears-should-bewareQuote:
Originally Posted by Birchtree
....The problem is I still haven't felt any sense of panic - where is my emotional equivalent...
Birch, it doesn't matter whether you or I panic, it matters whether the market sells - - - our particular emotions have no relevance - - -
The market will not listen to us as individuals. So it's not what YOU think, it what you think the market thinks. And I think the market thinks the market sucks, and will drive the S&P under 1,000; if it deadcats before then to 1,050; I have 5% in S-fund I plan to dump in a heartbeat.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
I would really like to do some buying today while the cash is available - but I'm nervous sitting close to a margin call. If the Dow can get back to +140 I think I'll make the run for the border. Right now the Dow is at +74 so I wait patiently. I only have one dividend due today. I want to see that VIX get into the 27 range and creep all the bears - no one is expecting a good summer and that may be the surprise.
crws
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 20
Hey-
I've been noticing a pheonomenon lately-
When the VIX is headed lower, CBOE goes up, when the VIX is headed higher, CBOE goes down. Is that because at high volatility the options exchange looses profit?
Take today's range, now that the VIX is headed up, CBOE has flipped negative.
It's been getting more & more defined that way over the last week or so.
-Almost forecasting what's on deck?
See what you think....
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 470
Comments for a Bull....
Robo
Kass: Fear Makes a Comeback
In contrast to the complacency that embodied the rally in the S&P 500 when it vaulted over 1,230 in April, fear has now been introduced into the market.
The Ranks of Cassandras Grow
For a rough parallel, he said, go all the way back to England and the collapse of the South Sea Bubble in 1720, a crash that deterred people "from buying stocks for 100 years," he said. This time, he said, "If I'm right, it will be such a shock that people will be telling their grandkids many years from now, 'Don't touch stocks.'
-- New York Times interview with Bob Prechter
On cue, the New York Times Jeff Sommer prominently interviewed Bob Prechter in Sunday's Business section. The Elliott Wave devotee is forecasting a DJIA "well below 1,000 in the next five or six years."
Prechter's comments are a classic example of Roubini-like hyperbole. As I have often written, both perma-bulls and perma-bears are attention-getters, not money-makers. Avoid their views like plagues. I do. Those views might make for juicy headlines, but they are not typically substantiated by rigorous in analysis. Importantly, their views rarely prove accurate or value-added.
It is for these reasons and others that the reputations of Cassandras are not usually long-lived.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10799430/1/kass-fear-makes-a-comeback.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 470
Buster
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 109
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong..But as I understand the VIX, it is a negativity indicator just as you said, VIX going down means the rest of the markets are headed up or visa versa...So we want to see a down trending VIX.
crws
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 20
True, but there was an IPO of the equity CBOE, the parent company of the VIX.
Here is an example of what I was curious of:
The thing I thought was interesting is that as you can see, CBOE had nearly a 2 hour lead on volatility as shown for the VIX.
Recently CBOE has been acting like a real-time contrarian indicator of the VIX.
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Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
It's time to step in front of the train and pick up a few golden prices whether the low is in or not - I'll take the chance. Buying: BP, ANF, AP, ARM, BTU, GCI. If we hold positive above +100 on the Dow I may come back and allow my greed factor to make further selections.
Buster
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 109
What's BP at right now Birch?Similar threads
