Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The longer the Fed doesn't raise rates here, and the yields on the 2 year note continue to move higher and remains normalized, any excess liquidity from this same spread will eventually have to find its way into equities. Because the yield curve is now righted this acts like a pump and all the liquidity building since early May has yet to hit the market. This tsunami building liquidity is the reason why the market can't build a trend to the downside. This liquidity level is fighting off any kind of real decline in which a trend can develope to the downside. All the ingredients are here for a repeat of 2003. If we fail here the downside risk is highly limited especially with the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM close to +400 - just waiting on +500 to signal escape velocity. If we rally from here, how many are going to watch from the sidelines in fear of going in at the top. The best decisions I've made over the years are the ones that I never made. The most important thing right now is that the A/D line holds above support of its EMAs, which it's doing quite nicely.

In the past, 90% up days, combined with one days gains in excess of 3% (as occurred earlier this year) have signaled a long term (not a medium term) rally. The number of NYSE stocks making 52-week highs has been expanding, confirming the May recovery highs. Common stock breadth is broadly positive and confirmed the May rally highs. More than 80% of the S&P 500 componrnts have gained ground since March. Leadership (transportation, energy, materials) confirmed by hitting all=time highs. In addition in both the DJ Industrials and the DJ Transports signaled a Dow Theory bull market, suggesting that the primary trend is up. I continue to be right and sit tight - there is an explosion on the way.

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I would argue that the "white guilt" is as much of a holdover from the 60's as Reverand out of Touch. A lot of Obama's supporters are younger than me, and even us Busters find this kind of thinking "so yesterday". The Internet generation that follow the Gen Y's that followed my generation (and Obama's since he's a year yonger than me) are some of Obama's strongest supporters. And for them, these racial arguements are even older than "sooo yesterday", they are history.

It's not guilt, I would argue, it's all those "old guys and gals" - the other Candidates - don't appear to understand the current issues and the Intenet (sooo yesterday) much the less UTube, Text Messaging, etc., and they have...wrinkles. So I would argue, if there is any predjudice among Obama supporters, it's age discrimination, Clinton is Yesterday, and McCain is Ancient History. :toung: (I am speaking tongue in cheek).

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think everyone should get religion... Call me Father John... I like this web site: http://www.ulc.net/ You can start your own church.. My own is the Church of the Holy Fisherman... I try to attend services as often as I can... Thanks to ULC I can even perform weddings.. I think I'll change my affliation and make it the Church of TSP Talk.

Lutheran's... you just can't trust us...

Father John

a friend of mine used this mechanism to become a cardinal. he was once told by his superior that he was to address the superior in a certain way. He told the gent that he would, as long as he was addressed by the superior as "Your Eminence." Only in the civil service.

 

[Gaetaone]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I did it for the parking placard... The Chaplain had a great spot and it was fun parking in it... He'd call Security but they would see it and tell him there was nothing they could do. Yes, we're friends... too funny!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I see where Mr. Obama has finally resigned from his 20 year relationship with his religious mentor, friend and Trinity Church. They will grind him down on this issue alone. Why didn't he stand up previously - not good decision making characteristics. I can't wait for the discusion on Iraq.

 

[Buster]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Have you seen this?..I couldn't find anything contrary on Snopes.com

http://www.eyeblast.tv/Public/Video.aspx?rsrcID=2036

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Great video and certainly many more will come. Unfortunately we are in the process of a sea change in the country and this guy's attributes that once would have brought a candidate down are now being excused or minimized. Like teflon. I had thought the wave of new Millenial registrations were going to be the impetus but I can see the next older generation is part of it. It's going to be a new world (it's not naive to say we can change the world apparently) and Dennis' quote of "fear the donkey" is echoing.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I did it for the parking placard... The Chaplain had a great spot and it was fun parking in it... He'd call Security but they would see it and tell him there was nothing they could do. Yes, we're friends... too funny!!

Have re-reviewed the site. I had no idea one could confer sainthood!!

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mr. Obama - Why didn't he stand up previously - not good decision making characteristics. I can't wait for the discusion on Iraq.

GOOD DECISION MAKING CHARACTERISTS are most accurately accessed by those well grounded in Specialized Fields.

In regards to Obama and the Iraq War - We already know that the most grounded Military Experts and Authorities (representing numerous Top US Military Leaders) 100% BACK - Omaba.

Obama has made it very clear that Clinton's immediate withdrawal of all troops is a huge mistake - and that McCain's continuation of a "wrong war going on for years" is also a huge mistake. SO HE HAS MADE IT VERY CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WITHDRAW OF THE TROOPS - TO BE DONE IN THE BEST MANNER POSSIBLE.

GOOD DECISION MAKING CHARACTERISTS are most accurately accessed by those well grounded in SPECIALIZED FIELDS

In regards to Obama and Economics - Hundreds of the country's top Economic Authorities and Nobel Prize Winners SOLIDLY BACK Obama

So the issue IS NOT AN ISSUE OF RACE - nor it is AN ISSUE OF GENDER

The issue is what is best for this country and who is the most qualified to carry if forward.

If we make is an ISSUE OF RACE - then we can say "white guilt" and every slam immaginable - but everyone needs to remember that the underlying goal is to push all votes to McCain. If you want more and more Government controlling every aspect of your life then this is the only way to vote - because we have never had more Government than the Bush Administration and McCain will carry that forward.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This country will keep an indefinite presence in Iraq because that government wants to have us there. We are the security with enough power to off set both Syria and Iran - they would like to destabilize Iraq back to Sharia. We will remain in Kuwait and Dubai to off set the aggressive postures of Iran. If we leave Iraq to soon there will be chaos and possible genocide. I think McCain has it correct. Personally I don't think there are enough college professors, gays, pedos, or transvestites in this country to tho Obama over the top.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been asked to build a portfolio for my potential son in law who is also in the U.S. Army. So what shall I buy for him? I think some smelly bank stocks and energy infrastructure would be a good start - taking into account the virtues of dividend reinvestment.

Birch,
This keeps coming back to my thoughts over and over and putting myself in your place I'm filled with questions like: 1)What's the initial investment amount? 2) How long are we investing - or when does he plan to start drawing from the account? 3) Can we chose according to our own risk strategy - or do we have to build on his? 4) Are you open to any global investment?

It's a big enough responsibility dealing with my own investments. For this guy to trust you to that extent speaks very highly for you Birch - but damn, I'd be so afraid of fouling the air between us. Aren't you just a tag concerned about some hurt feelings down the line? I guess the bigger part of me feels it's not right to put you in that kind of position. Anyway - good luck - however you do it.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Personally I don't think there are enough college professors, gays, pedos, or transvestites in this country to throw Obama over the top.

OK - my man - you won me over on this one; I have to admit this is the best line I've ever heard from anyone - at any time.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The total amount right now is around $62,000 which is excellent for his age bracket. He has been involved with the USAA group of mutual funds with slow results and would prefer now to own individual stocks that pay quarterly dividends - this is a long term plan. My daughter showed him her plan full of toxic waste and he became interested to try something similar. I'll be taking him out of his assorted mutual funds and using the funds to buy stocks. I currently have about thirty one on my list for him.

 

[luv2read]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This country will keep an indefinite presence in Iraq because that government wants to have us there. We are the security with enough power to off set both Syria and Iran - they would like to destabilize Iraq back to Sharia. We will remain in Kuwait and Dubai to off set the aggressive postures of Iran. If we leave Iraq to soon there will be chaos and possible genocide. I think McCain has it correct. Personally I don't think there are enough college professors, gays, pedos, or transvestites in this country to tho Obama over the top.

The corrupt government doesn't want us there and has said so. The people don't want us there and have said so...and show it with continued guerrilla actions. I won't call them "insurgents." We invaded and occupied a sovereign country without any legitimate grounds to do so.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The corrupt government doesn't want us there and has said so. The people don't want us there and have said so...and show it with continued guerrilla actions. I won't call them "insurgents." We invaded and occupied a sovereign country without any legitimate grounds to do so.

Hey L2R - not trying to give you a hard time or anything but his last line was by far the most important.

Anyone that come up with something that good off the top of their head deserves only the utmost respect and honor. I'm off your back forever Birch - at least on this issue.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My dear luv2read, have you been to Iraq? My daughter was there for 15 months and has some what of a perspective. The insurgents have mostly turned against al-Qaeda and have joined the Sunni Awakening Councils - the al-Qaeda members are all from somewhere else in the Middel East - better to have them there than in your home town. Moqtada al-Sadr has extended the ceasefire he imposed on his Mahdi Army militia last summer. It may be over before the election arrives.

No one should forget that the invasion toppled a dictator who had terrorized the region and would sooner or later have threatened American interests. Iraq may not have had WMD, but Saddam admitted to American interrogators (I can only hope he was water boarded) that he planned to reconstitute his WMD effort once U.N. sanctions collapsed. The capture of Saddam persuaded Libya's Moammar Gadhafi to abandon his nuclear program and seek a reconciliation with the U.S. Or perhaps he was convinced by Louis Farrakhan and Barack Obama that it was the blessed thing to do. Nope, it was the fear of power not Jesus that turned Gadhafi around. Remember when Reagan tried to kill him in his tent - I'm sure Gadhafi never forgot.

Strategically, Iraq has gone from being one of America's two principle enemies (with Iran) in the region to one of its two principle allies (with Israel). Iraq's government, for all of its shortcomings, demonstrates that a Shiite-led government need not be a theocracy. The invasion did prompt thousands of jihadis to emerge from places like Saudi Arabia and Morocco to fight the crusaders and infidels. Thousands of them are now dead or in prison, however, and the radical corners of the Arab world have learned that America cannot be defeated by a strategy of car bombs and assassination.

The strategic case for toppling Saddam also rested in part on the idea that a free Iraq would provide a strategic counterweight to Iran and Syria, as well as an ideological counterexample for a region where autocracy was the norm.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Iraq's transition to self-government remains fragile enough that U.S. forces will need to remain there in some numbers for years to come. Barack Obama has called for an almost complete U.S. withdrawal in 16 months - that's inexperience and reckless talk. The two countries will have to strike a long term U.S.-Iraq military agreement, which would serve the interests of both countries. For Iraq, it would show America's continued commitment in a rough neighborhood. And for the U.S., it would make the job of containing Iran easier. President Bush can best serve his Presidential successor by leaving enough troops on the ground to give him or her some strategic flexibility. We will never maintain the support, either at home or abroad, to prevail in Afghanistan if we show we can be driven from the more vital strategic prize of Iraq. To me it is dangerous and unfortrunate that both Donkey candidates have backed themselves into a corner by endorsing rapid withdrawal from Iraq. I wouldn't mind visiting Eden someday.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I've got 23,000 points right now ($50 for every 5,000)

We use our card every time we get gas or go shopping (5% savings)

Anyway - I usually have them send a check for $300 during the Summer (and then start using Discover).

Are you doing this??

 

[Buster]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Iraq's transition to self-government remains fragile enough that U.S. forces will need to remain there in some numbers for years to come. Barack Obama has called for an almost complete U.S. withdrawal in 16 months - that's inexperience and reckless talk. The two countries will have to strike a long term U.S.-Iraq military agreement, which would serve the interests of both countries. For Iraq, it would show America's continued commitment in a rough neighborhood. And for the U.S., it would make the job of containing Iran easier. President Bush can best serve his Presidential successor by leaving enough troops on the ground to give him or her some strategic flexibility. We will never maintain the support, either at home or abroad, to prevail in Afghanistan if we show we can be driven from the more vital strategic prize of Iraq. To me it is dangerous and unfortrunate that both Donkey candidates have backed themselves into a corner by endorsing rapid withdrawal from Iraq. I wouldn't mind visiting Eden someday.

McCain although his own man and mind, once he's in office, he will work diligently to back US involvement out in a planned dignified withdrawal per the Iraqis ability to stand on their own...A co-worker's son just arrived home today and came to the office for a visit..he was in a lot of the operations outside of the green zone...Turret gunner on a Humvee..He said; "DO NOT BELIEVE all the BS the media and other left wing anti-Bush activists are saying"..he said; we are making a difference in their lives and most, and he emphasized, MOST of all the Iraqis he encountered, thanked him and praised him to Allah for being there...nuff said.

 

[Asylum]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Pretty sure no matter what Obama says, the reality of the situation in Iraq is that our military forces will be there for quite some time in one form or another.

I chalk his comments up to pandering to the left-leaning pander bears.