7/18/12
Stocks opened higher but quickly sank as Ben Bernanke spoke in front of Congress. Somewhere during that appearance, the market must have liked what it heard because the Dow went from down 82-points to up over 100, before closing at +78.
[TABLE="width: 90%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 241"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
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[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.004%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.09%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.74%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.51%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.66%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The chart continues to look pretty good as the uptrend is intact and the S&P 500 is trading above all of the major moving averages.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The indicators are mixed. These volume indicators show that the daily reading is overbought, the short-term (middle graph) has moved from overbought to neutral, and the longer-term is neutral after coming down from being overbought.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We have had more down days than up recently, but the up days have been pretty strong so even though 7 of the last 9 days have been negative, the S&P 500 is down less than 0.75%during that time.
You would think that would be a positive sign for stocks but sentimenTrader.com shows us that is not the case.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The price of a barrel of oil broke out to a new 7-week high and seems to be in a new uptrend. The dollar's recent pullback from its double top has helped, but anytime the price of oil goes up you have to wonder if the economy is showing signs of perking up.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We're not seeing a lot of evidence of that so the more likely reason is the trouble in Iran and the recent military incident near the Strait of Hormuz.
Today is the 12th trading day in July. Seasonality-wise, days 13 through 16 is one of the worst 4-day stretches of the year.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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