benitocj's Account Talk

[benitocj]

Trying to follow the rules, so... since I MUST have this - I MUST. So here it is.
Want to follow my returns with the Automated Tracker, figure if everyone is racing, why not join?

So I have a monkey that throws darts and want to see where it takes me if I do what monkey says.

 

[benitocj]

Re: OK - so let's see how it turns out.

DATE------ DAY------- IFT
29OCT2007 MONDAY...... I
30OCT2007 TUESDAY..... I
31OCT2007 WEDNESDAY..I
01NOV2007 THURSDAY.....I

I am going to follow my model, and see what results I get. It says, I fund for the whole week.

 

[fabijo]

Re: OK - so let's see how it turns out.

So, does your monkey consider other funds? Or is it strictly G or I?

 

[Show-me]

Re: OK - so let's see how it turns out.

Good luck!

 

[benitocj]

Re: OK - so let's see how it turns out.

So, does your monkey consider other funds? Or is it strictly G or I?

At this point yes G and I - but that is only because the I has been doing pretty well - I can teach it other tricks - if S or C do better.

I looked at historical data, and S, I and C seemed to follow the same trend for most part; getting too complex, I think, would just introduce more type II error. I want to keep it simple for now, and see how it goes.

 

[Reactive1]

Good luck!

 

[benitocj]

DATE............DAY............IFT
02NOV2007....FRIDAY.........G

That means on Friday by 12 noon EST I will do an IFT to G.

 

[benitocj]

Guess today was not a good day for my model - one strike against!
Still training my monkey - hopefully I can teach it to do better.

 

[benitocj]

Great - been trainning my monkey all week. Put it through a vigurous Monte Carlo trainning program, and it has improved its aim (overall 68%)

It changed her mind about today Friday(Nov 2) and told me to stay on I.
Hopefully next week will be a better week.

DATE_______ DAY________IFT_(hit rate for end of Oct 2006 - Oct2007)
02NOV2007__ FRIDAY.........I....(63%)
05NOV2007__ MONDAY.......I....(66%)
06NOV2007__TUESDAY.......G...(65%)
07NOV2007__WEDNESDAY...I....(76%)
08NOV2007__THURSDAY.....?....(71%).

"?" = don't know yet how to use the hit, until I know what the monkey has to say for Nov9.

I will keep trainning her - hopefully she can get better hit rates.

 

[benitocj]

DATE______DAY_______IFT (YTD Hit Rate).
08NOV2007 THURSDAY...I............(70%)
09NOV2007 FRIDAY.......G............(71%)
12NOV2007 MONDAY.....HOLIDAY (67%)
13NOV2007 TUESDAY.... ?...........(75%)

Overall hit rate for Nov 6, 2006 to Nov 5, 2007 is 70%.
IFTs effective on the COB of date they are posted for.

 

[fabijo]

Thanks for sharing, benitocj. I hope it works out.

 

[benitocj]

Thanks for sharing, benitocj. I hope it works out.

Best way to get feed back is to share it with others that are insterested and be open to scrutiny.

 

[benitocj]

DATE______DAY_______IFT (YTD Hit Rate).
08NOV2007 THURSDAY...I............(70%)
09NOV2007 FRIDAY.......I............(71%)
12NOV2007 MONDAY.....HOLIDAY (67%)
13NOV2007 TUESDAY.... ?...........(75%)

Overall hit rate for Nov 6, 2006 to Nov 5, 2007 is 70%.
IFTs effective on the COB of date they are posted for.

09NOV2007 FRIDAY.......I............(71%)

Because Monday is a Holiday, I had to change the way I play Friday. I meant to edit it at first, I guess it didn't save it.

 

[benitocj]

DATE______DAY_______IFT (YTD Hit Rate).
08NOV2007 THURSDAY....I............(71%)
09NOV2007 FRIDAY.........I............(69%)
12NOV2007 MONDAY...HOLIDAY.....(70%)
13NOV2007 TUESDAY..... I........... (69%)
14NOV2007 WEDNESDAY..?...........(75%)

Overall hit rate for YTD is 71%. YTD = 365 days back from today, so it will most likely change as I add, or drop data points during testing.
IFTs effective on the COB of date they are posted for.
(*entered the wrong YTD hit rate for TUESDAY - last time).

 

[ekatteng]

You got good calls...

DATE______DAY_______IFT (YTD Hit Rate).
08NOV2007 THURSDAY....I............(71%)
09NOV2007 FRIDAY.........I............(69%)
12NOV2007 MONDAY...HOLIDAY.....(70%)
13NOV2007 TUESDAY..... I........... (69%)
14NOV2007 WEDNESDAY..?...........(75%)

Overall hit rate for YTD is 71%. YTD = 365 days back from today, so it will most likely change as I add, or drop data points during testing.
IFTs effective on the COB of date they are posted for.
(*entered the wrong YTD hit rate for TUESDAY - last time).

 

[benitocj]

DATE______DAY_______IFT (YTD Hit Rate).
12NOV2007 MONDAY...HOLIDAY.....(70%)
13NOV2007 TUESDAY..... I........... (69%)
14NOV2007 WEDNESDAY..I............(75%)

Ouch - not looking so good out there today, but here is what my system has to say for next Wednesday.

 

[benitocj]

You got good calls...

So good it hurts ...hope to catch a good wave sooner or later...

 

[Birchtree]

What you really mean is that it hurts so good, right? I'm waiting on some news soon regarding dollar buying by the Treasury and ECB - this has been done in the past. This will create a short squeez on the bears. They could say something over the weekend and set up a surprise - or the dollar just keeps on dropping.

 

[benitocj]

- or the dollar just keeps on dropping.

Good thing I have an international portfolio . Dollar hasn't been doing too well vs the Euro...I am not an economist, so I don't really know what that means in terms of the US economy, but I know one thing: it increased my overseas investments by quite a bit...

Hope the I fund bounces back next week.

 

[benitocj]

DATE________DAY__________IFT (YTD Hit Rate).
14NOV2007.....WEDNESDAY.....I (75%)
15NOV2007.....THURSDAY.......I (71%)
16NOV2007.....FRIDAY............? (67%)

Overall hit rate for YTD is 70%. IFTs effective on the COB of date for which they are posted (if the case).