Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

I did the same thing. sold my NUGT for a 5% gain. Also sold some NUGT calls that I picked up a couple days ago for a fractional gain. looking for the next trade.

good luck to you.


CrabClaw,

I had to many shares of the miners as I kept buying the dip. I'm still holding plenty of shares, but needed to reduce my position. We need gold to move above 1250, but it's having a tough time. I'm going to update my positions in a few.

I'm with you and waiting on the next trade...

Have a nice weekend.
 
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Getting some buy signals for GDXJ, JNUG, SLV and gold DGP or UGL, but I already have plenty of these type indexes.


Waiting to put my TZA trade back on.


Good trading.
 
Got Silver? Adam does.....and so do I.


SLV Bullish Divergence 2

By: Adam Hamilton | Fri, Jan 10, 2014

Despite its miserable 2013, latent investor interest in silver remains strong. This manifested in robust worldwide demand for physical silver driven by its lower prices. The hidden strength in silver was also evident in the holdings of its flagship ETF, which held steady in defiance of plummeting silver prices. SLV's massive bullish divergence reveals big dormant silver investment demand ready to be unleashed.

If there was ever a year to scare investors away from silver, 2013 was it. This white metal plummeted 35.6% last year, its worst calendar-year performance in 32 years! As the general stock markets melted up in response to the Fed's epic money printing, capital fled alternative investments like precious metals so their prices utterly collapsed. Silver was largely left for dead, with only hardened contrarians remaining.

SLV Bullish Divergence 2 | Adam Hamilton | Safehaven.com
 
I've been bit by the Silver Bug. I've Bennett scouring different areas for cheap silver. nice tips for some: if you buy online with apmex or jm bullion or something, pay by check or money order. You get a discount over buying with your credit card.

And a recent favorite of mine: going to antique stores that haven't update prices on a weekly basis. Some antique outlets have just booths without anyone there to monitor their belongings. Generally they premark the price of their silver. If you are lucky some of the prices are from the last time silver was down low. I've picked up some more Morgan's this week at $17 each. If and when I sell... That will be a great profit. As they go for around 25-35 on ebay. I also got silver 1 oz bullion bars for $15 at an estate sale. Same estate sale I got 12 pre '64 quarters and two liberty half dollars. That's all for my tips!
 
Thanks for the tips Brotherman, but I only trade it on paper these days. In the past I picked up and held plenty of it myself. Sold it all when gold and silver had the last big run up, and decided not to hold physical any longer. A big move up is coming in my opinion, and you will make lots if money if you can bring yourself to sell.


Again, thanks for the tips....
 
Beautiful! Back above the 9 DMA and only a small gap left behind that might have to fill......The HUI chart might be telling us this move in the miners has more to go. However, you can also see on this chart how many times the Bulls have been faked out by false moves up. Gold's next challenge is 1250.....For the record I don't trade off charts.....but millions of traders do so it pays to watch them!

Good trading.

Got gold miners....I do?

$HUI - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
 
Beautiful! Back above the 9 DMA and only a small gap left behind that might have to fill......The HUI chart might be telling us this move in the miners has more to go. However, you can also see on this chart how many times the Bulls have been faked out by false moves up. Gold's next challenge is 1250.....For the record I don't trade off charts.....but millions of traders do so it pays to watch them!

Good trading.

Got gold miners....I do?

$HUI - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Right now I am out of all my miners. Looking to go back in on any pullback or other setup.
 
CrabClaw,

I'm still long around a 1/3 position silver/miners, but ready for another trade if the set-up is there...whatever sector it may be.


I got lots of buy signals last week from the paid services I have to buy gold/silver and the miners. But we also know how many times those buy signals have been wrong in the past (everyone was wrong trying to call a bottom in the miners in 2013 unless the June lows hold). Now, maybe the June lows will hold, and it sure looks that way for now.

I was already long when I got the buy signals from these guys, but when the charts and TA line up the followers of that data will be buying. I had to reduce my position size because I was around 225% long with leverage, now I'm back to around a 100% long again a 1/3 position long using 3x indexes. My GDX and GDXJ are in different accounts. I use 5 different paid services to look over data to take position trades, but it hasn't mattered for many months....the trend for the miners remained DOWN. However, I did pretty good once I started short-term trading the miners and keeping a core position of GDX and GDXJ.

Four of the five paid services I have are now long gold/silver and the miners. They do not all use the same types of data for their signals....and some take Very High Risk trades like Rambus using 3X indexes. Read his free article from a few days ago at the link below, he is very good at what he does.


Rambus Chartology for Subscribers | The Finest in Technical Analysis and Realtime Market Commentary.

No system is 100% and I make the final move based on that data from my paid services. The day-trading is no more then gambling, but I have a blast doing it.


TA - Waves - Value investing - Cycles - Insiders....etc.....I get it all from these guys. One service I really like for Risk Management is TRI and he uses a system called TEMPOS, and the most aggressive and takes Very High Risk trades is Rambus I mentioned above (uses TA), but gets whipsawed often.




TRI:

T.E.M.P.O.S. is my personalized way of approaching the financial markets. Risk management is the number one consideration before placing any trade, but aligning entry points with the consideration of multiple beneficial variables increases our odds of success dramatically. There is no Holy Grail in investing, and every mechanical system goes through periods where it simply doesn’t yield great results because it has a structure that is limiting. That is why I believe in utilizing the best qualities of multiple systems, and cross-referencing them to give us a non-biased perspective on the markets.

T.E.M.P.O.S. stands for the following:
◦T – Time (cycles)
◦E – Energy (fractals), Elliott Wave
◦M – Momentum
◦P – Price (volume, position size, exit points)
◦O – Orientation (technical analysis)
◦S – Sentiment (COT, surveys, opinion)

Each one of these variables used individually can result in a great trade…occasionally. However, when used in combination with each other, they become much more powerful.

My fundamental structure for looking at the markets is cycles, and within each cycle I use both Elliott Wave and momentum to analyze the structure of the cycle. This leads to a strong, objective view of price action on multiple time frames.

The Swiss Army engineers knives with multiple tools because they understand that it is impossible to predict which tool will be the most useful at any given point in the future. We need to have the same multifaceted approach as investors because we don’t know what opportunities the market will present to us. In baseball, the best hitters can only work with the pitches that the pitcher gives them, they must have patience and not chase out of the strike zone. The highest paid players are the ones that produce the greatest results when that pitch finally does arrive. The market rewards investors similarly

The Refined Investor | Ignoring The Immaterial

Anyway Brotherman, I normally would have sold everything Friday, but in my opinion the game is changing, and I will be adding to my position trades in the future ( at cycle lows if I can catch them correctly) and less short-term trading. I'm not saying it will be straight up, but I think the trend is about to change.

Good luck to you next week. The Bears will not give up easily....but at some point we will get a rip-your-face-off-short-rally that will be jaw dropping, and I want to be long for it. The 14% gain in JNUG will be small when that move comes, and it will be multi-day rally. The Mo-Mo Boyz will see it and we will be off..... Ha....At least that's the plan.


JNUG: Summary for Direxion Daily Junior Gold Mine- Yahoo! Finance

Good luck next week!
 
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I'm looking to keep buying, and find that golden moment in about 20 years to sell at profit. Obviously I will guage the market and sell if I reach great profits. But I like my silver!!!!
 
Well, I do agree with Frank on this.....


The Trend Is Your Friend

Trend timers do not try to anticipate reversals or breakouts. They respond to them.

Trend timers are not prognosticators. We just identify and follow trends.

Trend timers believe the markets are smarter than any of us. We make it our business not to try to figure out why the markets are going up or down, or even where they are going to stop.

Successful trend timers identify trends, trade those trends, and patiently allow them to play out while their profits grow.

Predicting the markets is a fool's game. It is fun to do over cups of morning coffee, but if you want to beat the financial markets, you must identify and trade trends. You must also stay with your trend trading strategy through thick and thin. If no one can consistently predict where the markets are going, they also do NOT know when the next trend will begin. Taking all trades guarantees that you will never miss it when it start.

Market Timing Pro
 
Robert does Do The Wave…..I say..... we shall see.

Gold remains inside a Declining Bullish Wedge that is approaching completion, with a downside price target close to 1,100. Very short-term, Gold is forming an {a} up, {b} down, {c} up move for wave 4-up of this Declining Wedge. Gold formed a sideways triangle for wave {b}, and Friday’s rally is likely the on-time start of wave {c} up toward 1,260ish. That should complete small degree wave 4-up and then small degree wave 5-down will begin. Once the bottom arrives, a significant rally, large degree wave 5-up, will begin. Once Gold has bottomed, Gold should streak for $3,000 an ounce or more because it will be entering its large degree wave 5-up. Wave fives are typically the largest wave for precious metals. What could kick off a powerful rally in precious metals? A sharp decline in stocks driving folks to the safehaven of Gold would do the trick. This rally may be a few months away.


The NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line is About to Top, an Early Indicator that a Major Top is Approaching in Stocks | Robert McHugh | Safehaven.com
 
A comment from Kaplan:

There's a saying on Wall Street that the best time to trade anything is always a year or two ago. This is not just a joke: investors throughout 2013 did as they should have done in 2011-2012; investors in late 2008 and early 2009 did what they should have done in 2007; investors in late 2002 and early 2003 did what they should have done in late 1999 and early 2000. 2014 is no exception: investors believe they have learned the "lessons of 2013" and will therefore continue to purchase general equity funds and junk bonds while selling commodities, commodity producers, emerging-market anything, and eventually U.S. Treasuries. The key to success this year--as with most years--is to recognize what almost everyone else is likely to do, and to have the correct responses prepared well in advance to profit from others' mistakes.

True Contrarian
 
Sunday, January 12, 2014

"The more you chase money, the harder it is to catch it." --Mike Tatum

In recent months, inflows into general U.S. equity funds have approached or surpassed their previous all-time record highs. This bodes poorly for the U.S. stock market, since previous instances of massive inflows including February 2000 and October 2007 were followed by severe multi-year bear markets. Unfortunately, 2014-2016 is likely to experience a repeat performance. Just as VIX warned of a stock-market collapse far in advance by gradually forming higher lows following its 9.39 multi-year bottom on December 15, 2006, VIX has recently touched several higher lows after similarly completing a six-year bottom at 11.05 on March 14, 2013. Most investors finally feel confident about "getting back into the market", but for all of the wrong reasons. Their memories of the 2007-2009 plunge have faded with time, thereby making it easier to rationalize as a once-in-a-lifetime event which allegedly can't be repeated. Investors who couldn't bear to buy the S&P 500 below 700 or 800 are eager to participate when it is above 1700 and 1800. Repeatedly buying high and selling low is usually not a recipe for success.


From my largest to my smallest position, I currently own GDXJ, KOL, XME, GDX, REMX, SCIF, SIL, COPX, GLDX, IDX, GXG, RSX, ECH, EWZ, VGPMX, VNM, URA, BGEIX, ZJG (Toronto), SLX, PLTM, BRF, EPU, THD, EPHE, and SOIL. I have significantly reduced my total cash position since June 2013 in order to increase my holdings of the above assets, and I sold almost 90% of my SLX near 49 dollars per share because steel insiders were doing likewise.

True Contrarian
 
By: Andre Gratian | Sun, Jan 12, 2014

"IF SANTA FAILS TO CALL..."

Market Overview

The Trader's Almanac is famous for pointing out seasonal patterns in the stock market. One of the most predictable one is the "Santa Claus rally". The STA states: "Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street nearly every year, bringing a short, sweet respectable rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January." It also points out that: "Santa's failure to show tends to precede bear markets".
So how did Santa do this time? Not so good! That time frame consisted of the top segment of a rally which had started on 12/18, and the result was a net gain for the 5-day period of a puny 3 points! So does that mean that we can expect the bull market to end this year? Probably a good bet! I have been touting the Kress cycles which are due at the end of 2014 for some time. These are long-term cycles that should make their lows around October. They include the 120-year cycle, and one of its most distinct components, the 40-year cycle. As I have mentioned repeatedly in past newsletters, I had expected them to make their presence known much sooner. In May through September, it looked as if they were finally in the process of putting an end to the bull market which started in March 2009, but it was only a false alarm!

Summary
Warnings of an impending top are emerging, but not severe enough to suggest that it will turn out to be the end of the bull market. At best, based on the near-term cyclic configuration, we should expect a decline of a few weeks into the end of February. This should be followed by a resumption of the long-term trend to new highs. Perhaps by then the warnings will have intensified enough to alert us to the imminence of a final top, once again fulfilling the prophecy of a failed year-end rally.

Market Turning Points | Andre Gratian | Safehaven.com
 
January 13, 2014
Hovering With an Anvil

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

In July 2011, just before the market lost nearly 20% (but also the last time it corrected materially), I observed “Like Wile E. Coyote holding an anvil just past the edge of a cliff, here we are, looking down below as if there is much question about what happens next.” In my view, the stock market is hovering in what has a good chance of being seen in hindsight as the complacent lull before a period of steep losses. Meanwhile, we would require a certain amount of deterioration in stock prices, credit spreads, and employment growth to amplify our economic concerns, but even here we can say that there is little evidence of economic acceleration. Broad economic activity continues to hover at levels that have historically delineated the border of expansions and recessions.

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment
 
Weekend Report…The Chartology of Silver (Both Sides of the Coin)

Posted @ 7:19 pm EST on January 12, 2014 by Rambus


In this Weekend Report I would like to show you some charts for silver which shows a bullish and bearish scenario. As we are at an inflection point we need to monitor both sides of the precious metals complex for clues that may give us the next important direction this group, as a whole, may move. To pick an absolute bottom is next to impossible to do but one can get very close sometimes if a clear and open mind is present.


So here we are looking at a possible very large and important inflection point that may signal the next major move in silver. All we can do is follow the price action and see what it tells us. The very first thing we need to see is silver takeout the 50 dma and the overhead resistance to get the ball rolling in the up direction. It is close but not quite there yet. We just need to keep an open mind for either scenario and trade accordingly. All the best…Rambus




Rambus Chartology for Subscribers | The Finest in Technical Analysis and Realtime Market Commentary.
 
New Gold Bull Market Cycle Has Started - Gold and Gold Stocks

By: Chris Vermeulen | Sun, Jan 12, 2014


Gold Miners ETF - Monthly Chart

Gold stocks have not yet broken out to start a rally as you can see in the chart below. But the important thing to note is that the daily chart has formed a mini Stage 1 Basing patterns and could breakout this week to kick start a multi month/year rally.

Gold & Gold Stock Bull Market Conclusion:

If you have been following me for a while, you know I don't try to be a hero and pick tops or bottoms. We all know that strategy is a losing one over the long run.

Since 2011 I have been a very dormant gold trader. Why? Because the price and technical indicators topped out and confirmed a massive consolidation or bear market was in motion.

With gold, gold stocks and precious metals about to start a new bull market, it is time to get back to trading gold and gold stocks.

New Gold Bull Market Cycle Has Started - Gold and Gold Stocks | Chris Vermeulen | Safehaven.com
 
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