Barney's Account Talk

[Barney]

That's a good-to-know trend. By going to the G-fund on the last day of every month, you are not wasting one of your 2 allotted IFTs to move to the G-fund early in the month. You then have some flexibility to go 100% S, then 100% I or any combination you'd like and still be free to use a (bonus) third move to get back to the G at the end of the month.

However, if you are in an uptrend, you wouldn't want to bail to G just because it's the last day of the month. You'd waste your first IFT getting back into the fund you bailed from when you didn't have to. Here's my strategy. On the last trading day of the month, before NOON:

• Look at the LMBF. If it exceeds my return for the month, and if I haven't used my 2nd IFT, move to the indicated fund before noon. I still have my 2 IFT's for the following month to reallocate for more profit or bail.
• If the trend is up for the fund I'm in, stay put. I still have my 2 IFT's.
• If it's time to bail, do it to G and be set for next month. Still have my 2 IFT's.

I used the LMBF and broke it down in half. It is the Last Two Weeks Best Funds LTWBF. And, so far for 2008, from the 15th to the end of the month, the best return is the S fund. If something in the news says that the S-fund might not do so well, then we can either slowly put it into the G-fund or all at one time and it will either count as the second move or 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc.
What floors me is the 1st thru 14th- yes, there will be some up days in different funds, but overall, they all are negative numbers. I'll be keeping a close eye on those numbers.:suspicious:
Thanks for your replies.

 

[Barney]

The last two weeks of June killed the numbers for the S-fund. However, it is picking up again.

View attachment 4320

 

[Barney]

I am looking at new data. Instead of only looking at the 1st and 15th, I am now breaking it down into 1-09, 10-19 and 20-31. Here are the returns as I see it:

View attachment 4620

I will be moving into the S- Fund on the 10th (or there abouts);
moving 50/50 S and I- Funds on the 20th ("")
and back into the G- Fund sometime before the 1st of the following month.

Barney

 

[Barney]

I have not posted in a while. Just sitting back wondering how to make heads or tails of this market. I have been keeping track of returns broken into the 3 segments of a month. I have left everything in the S and am seeing a 7.17% return. Although the data changes in this market, here are the returns to date:
View attachment 6262

Ideally, one could be making 13.86% by going into the S-Fund from the 1st of the month to the 19th then IFT to the G-Fund for the last segment. I am happy with my 7.17%.

Hope you are seeing happy returns.

Barney

 

[nasa1974]

I have not posted in a while. Just sitting back wondering how to make heads or tails of this market. I have been keeping track of returns broken into the 3 segments of a month. I have left everything in the S and am seeing a 7.17% return. Although the data changes in this market, here are the returns to date:
View attachment 6262

Ideally, one could be making 13.86% by going into the S-Fund from the 1st of the month to the 19th then IFT to the G-Fund for the last segment. I am happy with my 7.17%.

Hope you are seeing happy returns.

Barney

Barney,

Very interesting information. Worth looking into. How long have you been tracking data?

 

[Barney]

Barney,

Very interesting information. Worth looking into. How long have you been tracking data?

I started tracking daily returns back in June 2008. Then I back tracked to 2003 and analyzed for patterns that fit. It seems to be similar to the Last Months Best Fund method, except I broke it down into 3 segments. I am also looking at the 1st and the 15th of the month data. It is very interesting data, however it is not the crystal ball and if your not watching carefully, it can drop your numbers like a rock . I was lucky by leaving mine in the S-fund.
There is a huge difference in the past years when we were in a bull market vs. this bear data.
I also have a correction to make on the 20th -31st of the month data. Below is the daily updated and correct data:

View attachment 6285

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

I started tracking daily returns back in June 2008. Then I back tracked to 2003 and analyzed for patterns that fit. It seems to be similar to the Last Months Best Fund method, except I broke it down into 3 segments. I am also looking at the 1st and the 15th of the month data. It is very interesting data, however it is not the crystal ball and if your not watching carefully, it can drop your numbers like a rock . I was lucky by leaving mine in the S-fund.
There is a huge difference in the past years when we were in a bull market vs. this bear data.
I also have a correction to make on the 20th -31st of the month data. Below is the daily updated and correct data:

View attachment 6285

very interesting money flows, good info, keep it coming

 

[Mcqlives]

Barney,

Interesting pattern with your 3 a month. I asked Coolhand if he had heard of your system and if he had compared it with the Seven Sentinal's buy/sell. Thought I would ask you the same thing, in reverse, and see what you think! If yours and the SS match it would be the perfect marriage for our 2 transfers a month! (as I said to Cool, wishful thinking, I'm sure!!!)

Looking at the SS's, that Coolhand refers to, they seem to provide strong indicators when to buy or sell. I would crunch it myself but I know my limitations! I am not as adept at crunching numbers as you guys are and thought I should leave it up to persons that much less likely to screw up!

-mcq

 

[Barney]

Thanks for your encouragement. I have not compared with the Seven Sentinel’s. I looked at if for the first time after you posted this. I do not understand some of the SS and will have to study it some more.

Barney,

Interesting pattern with your 3 a month. I asked Coolhand if he had heard of your system and if he had compared it with the Seven Sentinal's buy/sell. Thought I would ask you the same thing, in reverse, and see what you think! If yours and the SS match it would be the perfect marriage for our 2 transfers a month! (as I said to Cool, wishful thinking, I'm sure!!!)

Looking at the SS's, that Coolhand refers to, they seem to provide strong indicators when to buy or sell. I would crunch it myself but I know my limitations! I am not as adept at crunching numbers as you guys are and thought I should leave it up to persons that much less likely to screw up!

-mcq

 

[Barney]

This is a wild wave we are on. Still at 75-S and 25-C. For now.

 

[Barney]

View attachment 8628

I am still tracking and using these dates as a tool. I will look again around the 19th of the month for a move.

 

[Barney]

I moved all to the G-fund. If nothing else, I am just locking in my gains. It may be a few days pre-mature, but maybe it is perfect timing. As I had my finger on the button, a thought about pigs and hogs entered my mind . My indicators said to wait until the 18th or 19th, but I decided not to wait.
We shall soon see. Good luck everyone!

 

[Barney]

I guess it is not that bad. I did not gain the .68% that I would have if I stayed in. Maybe I will feel better tomorrow... or Friday.
GL everyone.

 

[Barney]

I would like to share some of the data I have been keeping track of. This is Technical Analysis information, but helped me make my decision to exit:

View attachment 8704
View attachment 8705
View attachment 8706

This next chart tells me that a change is going to occur around the 19th of the month, however, January and February changed a few days early, so I made my move.

View attachment 8707