Back to Square One

On the last trading trading day of 2010 the S&P 500 closed at 1257.64. The last trading day of 2011 the S&P 500 closed at 1257.60. So after one year we're back to square one.

hamster wheel.jpg

Trading was very light and largely mixed, with the major averages floating above and below the neutral line. But selling pressure picked up a bit towards the close, which ultimately led those averages to settle around their lows of the day.

Here's how the charts look going into the new year:

NAMO-NYMO.jpg

NAMO and NYMO ebbed a bit lower, but remain in positive territory and on buys. They are also very near their trigger points.

NAHL-NYHL.jpg

NAHL and NYHL managed to move higher and are also on buys.

TRIN-TRINQ.jpg

TRIN and TRINQ both worked off their overbought conditions with TRIN remaining on a buy and TRINQ flipping to a sell. They are now neutral overall.

BPCOMPQ.png

BPCOMPQ managed to move a bit higher today and remains in a buy condition.

So the signals are mixed, but neutral overall. Although BPCOMPQ suggests higher prices may be coming. The Seven Sentinels remain in a buy condition going into the new year.

I can't read much into the signals as they are now largely neutral and the first two trading days of January are part of the Santa Claus rally time frame, which means seasonality is still positive. But traders are returning from holiday break too, so we'll see how it goes.

I'll have the tracker charts posted by Monday. Our sentiment survey backed off its highly bullish stance for the new week, so it will be interesting to see if our stock allocations followed suit. See you then.
 
This question is semi-related to your blog posts. Is there a way to overlay $BPSPX over $SPX? Can either of these be viewed intra-day.

-Emo
 
How did the C-fund manage to gain 2.11% on the year if the S&P only gained 4 hundredths of a point? :confused:
 
Sensei;bt4615 said:
How did the C-fund manage to gain 2.11% on the year if the S&P only gained 4 hundredths of a point? :confused:
PFM... lol

The only things that come to mind are:

De-listings
Listings
Weighting
 
Regarding C-Fund vs S&P 500 (which actually went down four hundredths of a point, not up): Dividends?
 
The S&P 500 dividend yield is currently 2.00%. That should account for the vast majority of that difference.
 
Wow, think about the 'C Fund' vs S&P500 returns. Last year was the same...

What that actually means is that you can beat 'market returns' by sitting in the 'C Fund'. That is good to know. Going to look at the F/S/I.

Or, you can trade like a trained ape (like me) and lose to market returns. This means that I am -4% from the 'C Fund'. Kinda missed the target, eh...
 
EmoDx;bt4614 said:
This question is semi-related to your blog posts. Is there a way to overlay $BPSPX over $SPX? Can either of these be viewed intra-day.

-Emo

No doubt there is, but I have to have a premium subscription to stockcharts to assemble it. And I don't trade enough to pay for that. There may be other methodologies, but I'm not familiar with them.
 
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