ayla Account Talk

[ayla]

I probably should put my comments about my IFT here. In case it isn't already obvious, I screwed up and didn't record on TSPTalk my latest IFT which I made on March 27th (before noon).

I realize the rules don't allow "back tracking" (which makes sense). Do whatever is necessary to keep me in the rules. But as of COB March 27th, I was 100% I fund. Not sure what the date is that you can officially put me there to keep me within the rules.

No hard feelings, just my mistake.. At least I have as some consolation, the wonderful performance by the I Fund today, 25 cents (and the dollars in my TSP to show for it)! YEAOOWEEEE!

I'll take this opportunity to give a thanks for those of you who keep this site going and to all the others who participate. THANK YOU.

 

[Rod]

I probably should put my comments about my IFT here. In case it isn't already obvious, I screwed up and didn't record on TSPTalk my latest IFT which I made on March 27th (before noon).

I realize the rules don't allow "back tracking" (which makes sense). Do whatever is necessary to keep me in the rules. But as of COB March 27th, I was 100% I fund. Not sure what the date is that you can officially put me there to keep me within the rules.

No hard feelings, just my mistake.. At least I have as some consolation, the wonderful performance by the I Fund today, 25 cents (and the dollars in my TSP to show for it)! YEAOOWEEEE!

I'll take this opportunity to give a thanks for those of you who keep this site going and to all the others who participate. THANK YOU.

For tracking purposes, I'm sure our Trackers won't have you 100 (I) until COB tomorrow.

It's only fair for everyone else.

So, wherever you were at prior to 100(I), that's where you are at now for tracking purposes until COB tomorrow.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

I just looked at your account thread, and see this for Mar 25:

"I=100%
IFT request submitted prior to noon on March 27, 2006"

So, you should be good to go.

Why did you think you screwed up? It looks like you recorded your IFT on Mar 25.

 

[ayla]

I am even more embarrassed if that is possible. I didn't look at the second page of my Account Transaction thread.

You are right. Yes, I did record it, everything is fine. I didn't think I had because I was looking at only the first page. I not only will get credit in my TSP account in actual dollars but as it turns out will also get credit here on the TSP talk site. Apologies. My brain just aint what it used to be. Glad you straightened this out.

 

[Rod]

Glad you straightened this out.

Not a problem!

As Moderator, that's what Tom "pays" me for...

Right Tom?

 

[Spaf]

As Moderator, that's what Tom "pays" me for...

Oh [bleep]! Another income credit... .....Spaf

 

[ayla]

I just went 100%I after being 20% C and 80% I.

I still consider myself a newbie and understanding the connection between the news and fund prices still escapes me pretty much. But that said, the chart for the I fund looks very healthy IMO.

The I fund price is hugging rather nicely (above) the 20 day moving average, the 20 day SMA is above the 50 day SMA and the 50 day SMA is above the 39 week SMA. The MACD is still positive with a positive (or maybe neutral) slope. The ROC has come down quite a bit for the I Fund which means it has done some consolidation, I think. The RSI looks healthy (though my calculation is a bit different for RSI than what I"m seeing on website such as stockcharts.com).

The VIX chart for volatility seems to indicate to me that there is complacency which means at least no real panic that there is going to be a "fall". Still trying to understand this symbol.

Today might be a good day for an FV for the I fund since the Nikkei is down as I write this. I don't usually comment on my reasoning, don't always have something to say but thought I'd contribute a few of my thoughts.

 

[nnuut]

Ayla, I love to hear how Members come to their decisions, helps with the learning process. Probably better than mine, let's see heads I stay in, tails I get out!

 

[ayla]

RSI (relative strength) and ROC (rate of change) starting to look bearish for all funds. Consolidation is good and if it weren't election week, I might be willing to risk a small pullback for the longterm but think I will "get out of the casino" for the week (at least). I won't be able to check on this later today so must make this decision early.

As they say, this is all about willingness to risk, at least given my level of understanding and experience at this point. Oh well.

 

[Birchtree]

The greater risk is being out, not being in - IMHO.

 

[ayla]

I just went 100% F. The charts are looking a little too much like May 9th. Big drop (over 30) in slow stochastic %k indicator, S Fund ROC (rate of change) has dropped to half what it was yesterday or day before yesterday, slow stochastic crossover from +80 to less than 80 for I fund. MACd's for both S fund and I fund don't look too bad so my confidence isn't really high on this but I think I would rather be safe than sorry at this point.

My IFT is intended to be effective by cob Nov 10,2006

I think the final interpretation of the TSP board's very ambiguous statement about "limited business hours" and "treasury still accepting G fund" will have to remain to be seen until I get a confirmation, hopefully tonight. Let's go with this date, please. (I hope I hope)

 

[ayla]

Should be 100% S by Cob today. Hoping I can squeeze a little more out of this breakout. Wishing I would have done this a couple of weeks ago. oh well.

I plan to get out fast if things start looking grim. Too much being said about a pullback otherwise I would stay long (for a while).

 

[ayla]

Just went 100% I - May be a bit premature but having looked long and hard about the Ifund's performance for the past year, there are a lot of things I could do stupider than "going long" in the I fund.

Now, if I can only stay long, LOL.

-Given that the Ifund has a 7 cent loss today (big if), the RSI shows an increase which indicates a positive divergence, a good thing I think.

-Also, the price difference with the 20 day moving average has gotten smaller, can be another good thing,

-Big drop in the %k(fast) stochastic for the last two trading days (at least by 30). Has often (though not always) shown to be a precursor to a breakout (but may not show up for a day or two.)

-Also Santa Claus rally (does this apply to Int'l funds too or only U.S.?)

-Also down trend with the dollar seems to be a good thing for the IFund.(this could be looked at as a negative for the IFund, I know considering that the dollar is due for a "bounce back" but long term, seems many or saying there isn't a good future for the dollar for 2007 anyway.)

I could also probably give some data that would show this may not be the best time. If it sounds like I'm "weasle wording" quite a bit, I am. But since I'm really hoping to stay long this time around, I think because today will likely be down, might as well start today.

P.s. I also think the S-Fund is looking good especially after this morning's down trend. May go there later if the IFund doesn't work out. (So much for my "stay long" approach, LOL.)

 

[ayla]

Well, turns out my getting into the Ifund was at least 1 day premature but I'm not selling yet though I have a pretty high fear factor at this point.

For the first time ever in my stock watching career (which has been relatively short), I am working on trying to come up with real indicators to tell me when to sell.

What I'm looking at right now (could change) --

--given the stochastics are looking like they were pre-May10th pullback, if using time interval alone, that would give me until Dec 21st (drop dead date - probably best to use one a few days earlier at least) to get out.

--given the stochastics are looking the same(etc.)... looking for a follow-up when the first dip below the 20 day average occurs - would be a good time to see if history repeats (and SELL)

--when the ^VIX touches on or goes about its 200 day average as it did on
Apr 11th, May 1st or May 11th - not sure which - maybe use a date just prior to the Dec 21st time interval mentioned above.


The above doesn't leave me with much of a strategy for the end of the year and beginning of the next. Will need to wait and see. Also, the stochastics have been so drastic that my idea of using an equivalent time period may be seriously flawed and I may need to use one that is much sooner that Dec 21st.

If it weren't for the possible Christmas rally, I would be more definite about believing the "much sooner" scenario.

 

[Birchtree]

When you use common technical statistics you should be aware that you are not alone. You become part of the consensus and the stinky contrarians are working against that data because they have the same access - but apply a different interpretation. When and if you ever find the holy grail please let me know. I pride myself on being a contrarian but it wasn't planned that way - I slowly grew into the approach. Good luck and good profits.

 

[ChemEng]

I would argue that building an informed basis to make informed decisions with our TSP has value in itself. Its not about looking for some mythical Holy Grail.

 

[Birchtree]

A little something for you on the VIX. Trading in the option market was relatively quiet as some investors pondered where volatility goes from here.

After spiking Monday amid the stock market's drop, the Chicago Board Options Exchange's market volatility index, or VIX, fell yesterday 0.68 to 11.62. On Monday, the VIX rose 14.6% as the DJIA saw its steepest fall since mid-July. Like other investors, option traders want to know what happens next. The question is whether the drop was a mere blip on Wheels radar screen that won't stand in the way of a continued move upward by stocks, or does it signal that something more significant is afoot - like a change in the market trend. It isn't an academic question - options traders need to get their bearings on this because it will affect how options should be priced. So far, the stock market's rise has been characterized by low volatility readings, but if volatility is going to rise, premiums should be more expensive.

 

[ayla]

So far, the stock market's rise has been characterized by low volatility readings, but if volatility is going to rise, premiums should be more expensive.

Not understanding your statement "premiums should be more expensive". Are you saying something is different? What is that?

Seems like the volatility has been behaving with a very low value (below its 200 day average) since the upward trend started on or about August 15th.
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=^vix;range=ytd;indicator=sma(50,200)+volume+macd;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

 

[Birchtree]

If the VIX is going to increase then the premiums that option traders pay when they trade will increase - remember options are time weighted and the trader has to pay for the time. Take care.

 

[ayla]

100% G - going to get the penny (I hope) and VIX is up 3% today. Will probably be back shortly to I or S fund tomorrow or Monday, depending...