AutoTracker Standings 2024

[TommyIV]

If you've followed the recent TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Ups or are a member of The Last Look Report, you have noticed the tight race for the best 2024 return in the TSP Talk AutoTracker Standings. It has taken some impressive maneuvering to outperform the C-fund (+4.90%) so far in 2024. Only three full year members have been able to conquer the fund six weeks into the year: totallykool (+5.33), HarleyLar (+5.31%), and joblin20 (+5.27).

After Thursday's market, totallykool has taken the number one position while holding 50% C and 50% S-fund, an allocation they've held since January 4th. Meanwhile, the other two top members currently hold 100% C-fund, securing their position above the C-fund in the standings. The market has teetered between favoring the C-fund and the S-fund this week. There has been a rotation between the two funds despite the indices behind these funds facing different technical positions. The S-fund outperforms the TSP funds for the week, but this back-and-forth action has favored those who have made IFTs amongst the stock funds this week.

Two of the top four member returns so far this week hold a mix of stock funds. All four of those best returns have made an IFT this week. Find out who comes out on top with the best return for the week in the next TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up.

 

[TommyIV]

The Few that Outpace the C-fund

Over 570 non-premium TSP Talk AutoTracker members have been able to outperform the G-fund's 0.64% return this year. Over 340 members have been able to outpace the S-fund's 2.34% gain. But only three members have outmanuvered the C-fund 6.51% gain, along with the rest.

We're close to finishing up our second month of the year and there are only three at the top above the those who have held the C-fund all year:

totallykool - currently holding 100% L 2045-fund

HarleyLar - currently holding 100% C-fund

Sign_Stealer - currently 100% G-fund.

 

[TommyIV]

Tomorrow (May 31) ends the May AutoTracker Contest but it will take a good rally in stocks to top the current leader for the month:



With a return of 6.57%, thewingreaper sits at the top with the best return for May. That return is going nowhere on the final day of the month while thewingreaper holds 100% G-fund. The next three returns are also from members who currently hold 100% G-fund. The current 5th place holder, ColonelFur, has a chance to climb that list tomorrow while they hold 90% of stocks across the TSP stock funds, but it will take a rally across the market to lift their 5.79% May return above thewingreaper's protected 6.57%.

Stocks are not putting on their best show right now, especially the C-fund. Investing fully in the large-cap stock fund today would have dropped your TSP by 0.6% Yet the S and I-fund both had decent days, both making their investors richer. The few investors who hold the I-fund enjoyed a gain of around 0.6% for the day.

 

[TommyIV]

The top of the TSP Talk AutoTracker is C-fund heavy. Among non-premium members, only three of the top 100 in the 2024 standings are holding 100% G-fund. The average C-fund allocation among the top 100 non-premium members is 86.0%. The second-highest is the S-fund at 5.7%.

That includes 54 members tied for third place in the non-premium standings who have not left 100% C-fund all year.

This approach has worked for these members so far this year, but will it work for the second half as well?

Want access to the TSP Talk AutoTracker standings that include premium members?

Start your Premium Service Membership with The Last Look Report for only $10/month.

 

[TommyIV]

A Quick Shift to the C-fund Yesterday

The average allocation of non-premium members took a significant single-day shift from the S-fund to the C-fund yesterday.

Yesterday the average C-fund allocation rose from 28.17% to 29.12%. Meanwhile, the average S-fund allocation dropped from 26.24% to 25.31%. That ~1% change is not common for a single day. However, some members jumped from 100% S-fund to 100% C-fund while others who were previously diversified between the two chose to lean into their C-fund investments.

The C-fund has been outperforming the S-fund so far in June, yet the S-fund did outperform the C-fund yesterday when this shift took place. These members who made these IFTs are looking smart today with the DWCPF (S-fund) down nearly twice as much as the S&P 500 (C-fund) in today's intraday trading.

Learn more about the difference between the two TSP funds in my blog: C Fund vs. S Fund: Which TSP Investment is Right for You

 

[TommyIV]

We have a new leader in the TSP Talk AutoTracker.

Johnny held the number one position for some time, (you've noticed if you have access to the premium standings). But after Johnny left stocks for 100% G-fund early in June, Timberwoof has been able to close the gap between them with their 100% C-fund allocation and now outright holds the number one position.

Now Johnny is on the verge of leaving the top and falling below the C-fund herd. Johnny's 2024 gain is now just 0.07% higher than the C-fund's return. The S&P 500 is up this morning but has quickly pulled off its highs. A modest gain of 0.08% or higher would knock Johnny down to the 63rd position in the standings. Johnny could reemerge to the top if the S&P 500 starts to top for the month. Both Johnny and Timberwoof have IFTs to work with in June.





Start your TSP Talk AutoTracker before July and be eligible to win in the July AutoTracker Monthly Contest.

 

[TommyIV]

There is a new sheriff in town.

After weeks of only Timberwoof outperforming the C-fund in the 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker standings, the S-fund rally has pushed three more members above the C-fund herd and into the top 4:



Our new 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker leader BadKharma moved from the C-fund to the S-fund on Monday and we noticed on the Last Look Report. Yesterday's outperformance of the S-fund over the C-fund pushed Badkharma from 69th to number 1 in one day. Of course, that jump is easy with the 2024 C-fund herd taking up 59 spots. Outperform the C-fund and you'll be on top.

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[JTH]

There is a new sheriff in town.

After weeks of only Timberwoof outperforming the C-fund in the 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker standings, the S-fund rally has pushed three more members above the C-fund herd and into the top 4:

View attachment 61330

Our new 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker leader BadKharma moved from the C-fund to the S-fund on Monday and we noticed on the Last Look Report. Yesterday's outperformance of the S-fund over the C-fund pushed Badkharma from 69th to number 1 in one day. Of course, that jump is easy with the 2024 C-fund herd taking up 59 spots. Outperform the C-fund and you'll be on top.

Start Your Own TSP Talk AutoTrcker Account For Free

BadKharma has also the #1 June Winner...

 

[nasa1974]

There is a new sheriff in town.

After weeks of only Timberwoof outperforming the C-fund in the 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker standings, the S-fund rally has pushed three more members above the C-fund herd and into the top 4:

View attachment 61330

Our new 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker leader BadKharma moved from the C-fund to the S-fund on Monday and we noticed on the Last Look Report. Yesterday's outperformance of the S-fund over the C-fund pushed Badkharma from 69th to number 1 in one day. Of course, that jump is easy with the 2024 C-fund herd taking up 59 spots. Outperform the C-fund and you'll be on top.

Start Your Own TSP Talk AutoTrcker Account For Free

With both the "C" fund and "S" fund down about the same percentage. It will be interesting to see who the top dog is after 4pm. Maybe by a few hundredths of a point.

 

[TommyIV]

With both the "C" fund and "S" fund down about the same percentage. It will be interesting to see who the top dog is after 4pm. Maybe by a few hundredths of a point.

Great Point!

And I'll say, BadKharma is holding 100% S-fund and Timberwoof is holding 100% C-fund. Both Johnny and gitkrunk hold two different mixes of the C and S-funds. Those proportions will be kept private to respect the Premium Memberships they pay for, but I wonder if those with the C-fund heavy allocations will float to the top two.

 

[tsptalk]

COB 7/17, it's BadKharma by 0.02% :22:

TSP Talk AutoTracker

 

[TommyIV]

Timberwoof is back on top

Although the S&P 500 was first to slip into negative territory this morning, the S-fund went on to close with a greater loss than the C-fund today.

Consequently, Badkharma's 2024 return slipped down to be even with the C-fund's. Conversely, Timberwoof's return floated back to the top of the TSP Talk AutoTracker Standings.

Badkharma moved back to the C-fund today, so now these two both hold 100% C-fund.

Johnny and gitkrunk still contend in the second and third position below Timbewoof and above the C-fund herd, both holding a mix of the C and S-fund, but at different proportions.




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[TommyIV]

The top three remain the same but the S-fund heavy allocation of Johnny floats him back to number one.

Johnny held the number one spot for most of the year but lost this spot in June when the C-fund took off while he sat in the G-fund. His reentry into stocks earlier this month included a 70% exposure to the S-fund and 30% exposure to the C-fund. That allocation has lifted him back above the rest.

Below Johnny is gitkrunk (50% C & 50% S) and Timberwoof (100% C). Below them are those who have stuck with 100% C-fund for all of 2024.

 

[TommyIV]

Two more have made their way above the C-fund for 2024.

We now have a top 5 distinguished from the C-fund and its full year investors.

Bullet, one of the top investors of July so far, have climbed their way to the fourth position of in the 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker standings. They moved from the G-fund to the S-fund on July 5th when the S-fund was briefly down for the month.

The other new top return is from the TSP Talk Plus System. Only Subscribers will know how they got there.




TSP Talk AutoTracker Standings (non-premium)

TSP Talk AutoTracker Standings (includes premium)

 

[TommyIV]

These nine are the Top AutoTracker Leaders beating the C-fund as of 07/30 close of business. We may see a readjustment of these top members if the C-fund keeps its lead over the S-fund this morning. There are some S-fund heavy allocations among them.

The C-fund is up 14.85% for the year not including its return today. The S&P 500 (C-fund) is up 1.6% at the TSP trade deadline.

 

[TommyIV]

The S-fund fell nearly twice as much as the C-fund today. The S-fund slipped 2.56% while the C-fund fell 1.37%.

As a result, some of the S-fund heavy investors at the top of the TSP Talk AutoTracker Standings fell back below the C-fund for the year.

Yesterday I reported nine members outperforming the C-fund for the year, today that number was cut to four:



That includes the trading system of TSP Talk Plus (Plus_System)

 

[TommyIV]

We've reached the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 2024. The market went wild after the FOMC cut rates by 0.50%, but you wouldn't know it looking only at the TSP fund returns for the day. The S-fund ended the day up 0.03%... The C-fund fell 0.29%... We will see if the intraday swings will churn tomorrow's action as well.

Here are the current top 6 returns for 2024 among the TSP Talk AutoTracker community, the only members outperforming the C-fund for the year. That includes the trading system of TSP Talk Plus. Three of the other five members are Premium Members.



Cash_Money has climbed their way to the number one position thanks to some early buying while stock prices slipped to start the month. They remain fully invested in the S-fund.


Start your free TSP Talk AutoTracker account here.

 

[TommyIV]

The C-fund and its herd pushed the G-fund investors out of the top list so far this week. Investors who have stayed in after last Thursday's rally have enjoyed the modest gains padding their profits this week. Two of the three 100% G-fund (full cash) holders who started the week in the top 5 have been knocked back under the C-fund herd. Now only three have outpaced the C-fund through all of 2024.

 

[TommyIV]

Yesterday's surge in the S-fund has put gitkrunk back at the number one position in the TSP Talk AutoTracker standings. There are currently five members and the TSP Talk Plus Trading System who outperform the C-fund for the year.