ATCJeff's Account Talk

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Dave had to say this today....

Many wonder why we’re carrying such heavy [over 80%] cash balances but this type of action is the reason combined with this is the most manipulated market in history. Sometimes you just have to stay out of the way and pick another spot.

Today’s action is clouded by this intervention and end of quarter propping with markets oversold. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

http://www.etfdigest.com/davesDaily.php


 
CNBC is reporting that the Senate will have a vote tomorrow evening and the FDIC will increase limits on bank deposits.
 
An agreement isn't necessary. A $500K mortgage default carries more damage to the financial system - thus a greater shock. That's behind our current crisis and it's only 3% of the general population. Look what's happened already - do we just let them drown in their backyard pools?
 
Moving 50% C and 50% S. A very high risk move. Do not try this at home!:D

I hoping to be in for a longer term this month but will bail if we break above 1275 or below 1100 on the S&P. Also, as we move up I will reduce my allocations.

Good luck,

Jeff


BTW, Friday's job report has me very concern!
 
Last edited:
ATCJeff said:
Moving 50% C and 50% S. A very high risk move. Do not try this at home!:D
Click to expand...

so you think I fund will lag and the dollar will go up?

Also, I can see another flush out to the downside before the end of the week -- mainly because of the jobs data. If Senate passes, we still have the house, they may not vote till next week (Monday). So, Friday we may go down, then early next week the big pop after it makes it through BOTH the House & Senate. That would give Paulson and his friends more time to hide the accumulation. THOUGHTS?
 
fedgolfer said:
so you think I fund will lag and the dollar will go up?

Also, I can see another flush out to the downside before the end of the week -- mainly because of the jobs data. If Senate passes, we still have the house, they may not vote till next week (Monday). So, Friday we may go down, then early next week the big pop after it makes it through BOTH the House & Senate. That would give Paulson and his friends more time to hide the accumulation. THOUGHTS?
Click to expand...

When the Senate pass the bill, the dollar will fall. The jobs number is already baked in.
 
ATCJeff said:
Moving 50% C and 50% S. A very high risk move. Do not try this at home!:D

I hoping to be in for a longer term this month but will bail if we break above 1275 or below 1100 on the S&P. Also, as we move up I will reduce my allocations.

Good luck,

Jeff


BTW, Friday's job report has me very concern!
Click to expand...

1275? Holy smoke you are an optimist! I'll be out after the first substantial 2 day rally...maybe 1200-1220.
 
fedgolfer said:
so you think I fund will lag and the dollar will go up?

Also, I can see another flush out to the downside before the end of the week -- mainly because of the jobs data. If Senate passes, we still have the house, they may not vote till next week (Monday). So, Friday we may go down, then early next week the big pop after it makes it through BOTH the House & Senate. That would give Paulson and his friends more time to hide the accumulation. THOUGHTS?
Click to expand...

Job data is a concern. Senate will pass the bill. Looking for the House to pass this weekend. I'm still looking for a strong dollar and did not want to jump in on a +FV if the market recovers this afternoon. The FV's in the I the past couple of weeks have been huge. Too much risk getting caught on the wrong side of a FV.
 
350zCommTech said:
When the Senate pass the bill, the dollar will fall. The jobs number is already baked in.
Click to expand...

Not sure about the dollar on passage. Jobs number may not be that big of a deaL.

BTW, GE is next to go or do something major. GE's 1 year credit swaps are now over 800 basis points!
 
ATCJeff said:
Not sure about the dollar on passage. Jobs number may not be that big of a deaL.

BTW, GE is next to go or do something major. GE's 1 year credit swaps are now over 800 basis points!
Click to expand...

Yes, you gave me a heads up on GE 2 weeks ago.:)

The dollar has been up huge due to European bank problems. Once the senate pass the bill tonight, the dollar will fall against the Euro and the pound.
 
ATCJeff said:
BTW, GE is next to go or do something major. GE's 1 year credit swaps are now over 800 basis points!
Click to expand...

Jeff, please excuse my stupidity...but would you elaborate.

GE is the most fundamental entity I have - I see them as the most major player we have - something that most represents the general economy.

If you're saying they are going down - like LEH, Bear Stearns,Fannie and the others - then I'm getting out.
 
Steadygain said:
Jeff, please excuse my stupidity...but would you elaborate.

GE is the most fundamental entity I have - I see them as the most major player we have - something that most represents the general economy.

If you're saying they are going down - like LEH, Bear Stearns,Fannie and the others - then I'm getting out.
Click to expand...

GE just made a deal with Warren Buffet. Buffet got a great similar to GS.

This means GE was hurting. 12B common stock offering is dilution. Not good.
 
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