At Odds

I must say that my feelings about where this market is going have not changed in the past few weeks. I said not too long ago that I thought this rally would end in fireworks rather than a whimper and I still hold to that belief. The market's action has really not given any significant evidence that this bull run is over.

Having said that, I am a little disappointed that my market performance is not reflected in my belief. But I've explained why more than once that using an Intermediate Term system in a quickly reversing market can cause problems. Especially when one is highly restricted in trading.

This market is once again due for a pullback. We are close to the upper end of the current trading range. I am pretty sure we will breakout to the upside, but we may take another shot down before we do. And that's where I'm at odds.

The SS gave me a buy signal yesterday, but we could whipsaw back down again next week only to reverse yet again to the upside. I don't have the luxury of moving back and forth and that means I could easily miss out on an upside breakout "if" and when it occurs. At this point my strategy has me "potentially" disregarding the next sell signal given how relatively shallow pullbacks have been in relation to this rally off the March lows. But of course I need to see how the market plays out. For now, I am trying to look out past these sell signals and accept more volatility than I might under different market circumstances.

 

[JTH]

I feel for you Coolhand. There are still questions out there yet to be answered. Volume is still light, and whenever volume picks up, it's been to the downside. But the dollar is poised to dive down so we have that issue too.

 

[Diesel]

Cool,
I'm on the fence. I've been interested in this SS system since I first saw it on this MB about a year ago. Has anyone backtested this system to calculate its performance over the years. I had every intention to go through with an IFT this morning but unfortunately, after submitting, I pulled out. Yes, my emotions and GUT got in the way because economic fundamentals are not matching what the market is doing. What I'm seeing in the charts and reading doesn't coincide, therefore, doubt is produced. I lost my backside last year and don't want to risk what I have gained (4%) this year.

 

[coolhand]

Cool,
I'm on the fence. I've been interested in this SS system since I first saw it on this MB about a year ago. Has anyone backtested this system to calculate its performance over the years. I had every intention to go through with an IFT this morning but unfortunately, after submitting, I pulled out. Yes, my emotions and GUT got in the way because economic fundamentals are not matching what the market is doing. What I'm seeing in the charts and reading doesn't coincide, therefore, doubt is produced. I lost my backside last year and don't want to risk what I have gained (4%) this year.

Yes, it's been backtested, but that does not mean infallability. I'm not comfortable either, but that's often the best time to go against ones feelings.

 

[Birchtree]

I was going to sit back and relax today - but now that you've gone long I feel I must support that move by doing some buying of my own. I can't let you carry the load alone.