ask tom

[ucanbreached]

In the TSP calculater spreadsheet, what does the below actually mean.

A positive number indicates your
return > other allocation.
- A negative number indicates your
return < other allocation.

What is other allocation? In addition does this tool take into account that you may have sold high/low and bought low/high respectively?

 

[tsptalk]

It's comparing your return the different TSP funds. If you are up 5% and the G fund is up 3%, it will show you a positve 2% as you are beating the G fund by 2%.

If your return is 2%, then it would show you a -1% as your return is behind the G fund by 1%.

Hope that helps.

 

[tsptalk]

You're the 2nd to ask today so here ya go...

I'll also post it on the comments page before the end of the week. There's a lot of green in early July. Mid-July is another story.

 

[wht00ss]

You may or may not have answered this question but I'm sure it has been presented to you in some form or another.

When looking at performance to date the I fund ranks significantly higher than alot of the participants who actively manage their TSP accounts.

Since your board has been around and tracking IFT changes how have the numbers matched up when comparing the managed accounts to the indices? In other words, have the majority of actively managed accounts outperformed say for example just leaving you money in the C fund and have you determined from the empirical evidence that it makes sense to actively manage accounts not because of the psychology of feeling in control but evidence that their is on average a better performance rate than a passively managed account?

Just curious your take on this
.

thanks

white

 

[tsptalk]

According to Rokid's tallies, about 1/3 of the members being tracked have beaten the C fund over the last 2 years. My longer-term account has but not my active account.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=104887&postcount=29

 

[pyriel]

Can you pls show us the seasonality for August. TY

 

[tsptalk]

Can you pls show us the seasonality for August. TY

August

 

[wht00ss]

okay Tom what's the game plan for today?? Sit tight on the S or are we looking at a dead cat bounce and time to reduce the stress level on the sidelines??

white

 

[tsptalk]

The market is way oversold. Still looking for a rally. Maybe this afternoon into Monday? If not, we could be in trouble. sentimentrader.com had this to say about a gap down after a lopsided down day...

If the futures hold somewhere around where they are now, with a negative gap down of about 0.25%, then I can find four other precedents for that kind of gap following a 10-to-1 negative breadth day like we had yesterday.

Since the introduction of the futures markets (which more clearly show gap openings than the cash indices), the following table highlights the S&P's performance going forward, from that day's open:

Date..........Open to Close..........1 Day Later..........5 Days Later..........1 Month Later
10/19/87...(25.1%).....................(19.6%)................(18.1%)....................(9.8%)
10/16/89...+6.2%.......................+6.0%...................+7.3%......................+4.7%
03/11/96...+1.9%.......................+1.2%...................+5.2%......................+1.0%
10/28/97...+6.9%.......................+6.9%...................+8.9%......................+10.4%

 

[James48843]

Since the introduction of the futures markets (which more clearly show gap openings than the cash indices), the following table highlights the S&P's performance going forward, from that day's open:

Date..........Open to Close..........1 Day Later..........5 Days Later..........1 Month Later
10/19/87...(25.1%).....................(19.6%)................(18.1%)....................(9.8%)
10/16/89...+6.2%.......................+6.0%...................+7.3%......................+4.7%
03/11/96...+1.9%.......................+1.2%...................+5.2%......................+1.0%
10/28/97...+6.9%.......................+6.9%...................+8.9%......................+10.4%

7/27/07 ...-1.6% ................?......................... ?..................... ?


Now I know how the porcipine feels when we wants to lick his wounds......

 

[tsptalk]

Historical data is great, isn't it. It always seems so clean.

That data tells us we did not crash like '87, but we didn't get a bounce like the other 3 times. Can't we get some consistancy around here?

 

[nnuut]

Yea, I'm really pissed at my stupidity!:embarrest:

 

[McDuck]

Yea, I'm really pissed at my stupidity!:embarrest:

Me too !

 

[nnuut]

Tanks

 

[vectorman]

Tom where do you get the ideas for your TSP Poll questions? When we participant do you get paid? Thanks

 

[tsptalk]

Tom where do you get the ideas for your TSP Poll questions? When we participant do you get paid? Thanks

No, I don't get paid. It's just usually something I have recently saw on the news, or read about, been thinking about, etc.

 

[MADDOG]

No, I don't get paid. It's just usually something I have recently saw on the news, or read about, been thinking about, etc.

we used to do the same thing;
some questoins made you think;
IF YOU AND YOUR WIFE CHECKED INTO A MOTEL
AND THERE WERE ONLY TWO DOUBLE / TWIN BEDS
WOULD YOU USE BOTH OF THEM
OR WOULD YOU ONE ONE?

 

[budnipper1]

we used to do the same thing;
some questoins made you think;
IF YOU AND YOUR WIFE CHECKED INTO A MOTEL
AND THERE WERE ONLY TWO DOUBLE / TWIN BEDS
WOULD YOU USE BOTH OF THEM
OR WOULD YOU ONE ONE?

Well, that depends on whether we were in the same motel or different motels...

 

[McDuck]

Tom said > I have the worst market instincts in the world

Tom, Didn't beat yourself up. I still think you're a good guy!

 

[tsptalk]

Sure - It will be in Monday's comments.