Asian News

[Ichiro]

20sep-bangkokpost-coup d-etat in thaliand

"The army commander Gen Sonthi Boonyarataglin staged a coup d'etat Tuesday evening (Thailand time) and ousted the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

A so-called "Democratic Reform Council" declared itself in control and declared martial law nationwide. Terse announcements said it included the commanders of all three armed forces and the police. It said the coup was necessary to correct "unprecedented division in the country."

The Council said there seemed to be widespread corruption, and independent agenies were subverted by politicians, apparently a reference to the Thaksin government. "The national government through the current administration has caused conflicts and undermined the harmony of the people as never before in history."

Public acceptance remained unknown. The coup occurred late Tuesday night, when Bangkok was under a major rainstorm, and few people were seen on the streets. "

for info:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/19Sep2006_news005.php

 

[Ichiro]

22sep-bloomberg-$ drops on philly report (very good info!!!)

by ming zeng

"The dollar fell the most since July versus the euro and yen after a report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia area unexpectedly shrank this month.

``It is consistent with soft economic growth in the U.S.,'' said Matthew Kassel, director of proprietary trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. ``When the Fed is done raising interest rates, the dollar will be sold off dramatically.''

The dollar weakened to $1.2787 per euro at 3 p.m. in New York from $1.2686 late yesterday, for its biggest loss since July 26. The U.S. currency fell to 116.35 yen from 117.46 yesterday, the largest decline since July 28.

Interest-rate futures show traders have erased expectations for another Fed increase and are starting to bet on a rate cut by year-end.

```The Fed is definitely done hiking rates,'' said Alan Kabbani, a senior currency trader at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``People are going to adjust their expectation as the U.S. economy continues to slow down. The dollar bullishness is over.''

Kabbani predicted the dollar will fall to $1.3450 per euro and 108.50 yen by the end of this year.

The U.S. currency has lost 6.8 percent against the euro and 0.7 percent versus the yen this year on speculation central banks in Europe and Japan will outpace the Fed in raising borrowing costs. The U.S. central bank paused last month after raising rates at 17 straight meetings since June 2004.


The yen also advanced on speculation China will allow faster gains in the yuan as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who favors a more flexible Chinese currency, meets China's Finance Minister Jin Renqing today in Beijing.


Asian currencies also rose on signs a coup this week in Thailand won't prompt investors to sell assets in the region. Army chief Sondhi Boonyarataklin took power without bloodshed and pledged to hold elections in October 2007.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=agL78k4SgNL0&refer=japan

 

[Ichiro]

22sep-bloomberg-yuan makes biggest weekly adv

by jake lee

"China's yuan made its biggest weekly gain since a dollar peg ended last year as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said his visit to Beijing had achieved a consensus on currency-market changes.

The yuan climbed to the highest since July, 2005, as Paulson said there were ``few differences on the principles'' of economic policies required, with timing being one. China has limited yuan gains to 2.4 percent since the peg, causing Democrat Senator Charles Schumer and Republican Lindsey Graham to propose tariffs on China's goods to reduce their nation's record trade deficit.


``The yuan will continue to gradually strengthen,'' said Joseph Kraft, head of the interest-rate products and foreign exchange division at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. ``Paulson has tried to promote an implementation of a more flexible currency policy that won't provide any shock to the economic system.''

``China is still the target of the U.S. and the pressure on them to allow more yuan gains is here to stay,'' said Carlos Cheung, chief currency dealer at Bank of East Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``With a much stronger economy, China can allow more strength without hurting it too much.''

for info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=akqoDfyD0IkE&refer=currency

 

[Ichiro]

22sep-bloomberg-euro gains

by ron harui

"The euro rose against the dollar after traders said it breached a key historical price pattern that triggered automatic orders to buy the currency.

Europe's currency extended gains after climbing above its 100-day moving average of $1.2740 yesterday, according to Ian Gunner, a currency strategist at Mellon Financial Corp. in London. The euro is up 8.2 percent this year on speculation the European Central Bank will outpace the Federal Reserve in lifting borrowing costs.

``We'll see the euro go higher as upward momentum is building,'' said Adam Cole, a senior currency strategist in London at RBC Capital Markets. ``$1.30 is well within the bounds of possibility as a high for the remainder of the year.''

The dollar is poised for its biggest weekly loss in three months on speculation the Fed is done lifting borrowing costs. The U.S. currency slid the most since July yesterday after a report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia area unexpectedly shrank in September.

Rate Cut?

Interest-rate futures show traders are pricing in a 12 percent chance the Fed will cut its target for the overnight lending rate between banks by December, reversing 9 percent odds on an increase on Sept. 20.

``Expectations of a Fed rate rise are rapidly withering away, buffeted by weak U.S. economic data,'' said Satoru Ogasawara, an economist and currency analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Tokyo. ``I expect the already dollar-bearish sentiment to prevail.''

An end to the Fed's rate cycle may diminish the yield premium of dollar-denominated assets.

``The euro looks strong on expectations of the widening gap in interest rates between Europe and other regions, such as Japan,'' said Jun Kitazawa, head of foreign exchange in Tokyo at BBH Investment Services Inc., a unit of Brown Brothers Harriman. ``I expect the ECB to raise rates twice more this year.''

======VIP ===VIP========
The yen may gain as the yuan headed for the biggest weekly gain since a dollar peg ended last year as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said his visit to Beijing had achieved a consensus on currency-market changes.
========VIP========VIP=========

The yuan climbed to the highest since July, 2005, as Paulson said there were ``few differences on the principles'' of economic policies required, with timing being one. China has limited yuan gains to 2.4 percent since the peg, causing U.S. legislators to propose tariffs on China's goods to reduce their nation's record trade deficit."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=atqWBFRod6gY&refer=currency

 

[Ichiro]

22sep-bloomberg-currecny strategist:lehman says buy yen before economic summit

by min zeng

"Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. advised investors to add to wagers on yen gains before economic reports next week that may fuel speculation the Bank of Japan will lift interest rates again this year.

Statistics next week will probably show increases in industrial production and consumer prices, according to Bloomberg News surveys. Bank of Japan policy makers kept the key interbank overnight loan rate at 0.25 percent this month, after raising it in July for the first time in almost six years.

==========vip========
The BOJ will boost its benchmark another 0.25 percentage point this year and then to 1.5 percent by the end of 2007, according to Lehman. The yen will rise to 110 per dollar this year and to 95 per dollar 12 months later, the report said.

==========vip========
Japanese industrial production probably rose 1.9 percent last month after a 0.9 percent drop in July, according to a Bloomberg survey. The government releases the data on Sept. 29 in Tokyo. A separate government report that day will likely show national consumer prices climbed 0.9 percent in August from a year earlier, three times the July gain, a Bloomberg survey showed.

BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Sept. 17 that Japan's economy had ``finally recovered'' and growth will persist.

Lehman also increased its bets on a decline in the dollar as reports pointed to a slowdown in the economy and as the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 5.25 percent this month.

``The dollar looks a little vulnerable,'' McCormick said in the report.


The dollar yesterday fell the most since July versus the euro and yen after a report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia area unexpectedly shrank this month."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aAugq_4lyd3M&refer=currency

 

[Oldcoin]

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's business confidence unexpectedly rose to a two-year high in September, increasing prospects that the central bank will raise interest rates by the end of the fiscal year in March.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agNzBHEbpNLU&refer=home

 

[Gilligan]

By Chen Shiyin and Makiko Suzuki

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell from a four-week high on concern recent gains were excessive. Canon Inc. and Li & Fung Ltd. led declines after climbing to records yesterday.
The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent to 130.10 as of 11:30 a.m. in Tokyo,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEtLakK3V2AU&refer=home

 

[Gilligan]

Quake raises fears of 2nd N. Korea test
TOKYO - A strong earthquake shook northern Japan on Wednesday and the Japanese government said it had detected tremors, leading it to suspect North Korea had conducted a second nuclear test. However, Kyodo News quoted Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as saying he had no information to confirm a second North Korea test had taken place.
http://news.yahoo.com/fc/World/North_Korea

 

[Oldcoin]

Asian Stocks Climb to Six-Week High, Led by Sony on U.S. Demand
By Stuart Kelly

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose to a six-week high, led by exporters such as Sony Corp. and LG.Philips LCD Co. after U.S. consumer confidence and spending reports eased concern demand is cooling in the region's biggest export market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aG1v70L.CMTE&refer=asia

 

[weatherweenie]

WASHINGTON - Air samples gathered last week contain radioactive materials that confirm that North Korea conducted an underground nuclear explosion, National Intelligence Director John Negroponte's office said Monday.

In a short statement posted on its Web site, Negroponte's office also confirmed that the size of the explosion was less than 1 kiloton, a comparatively small nuclear detonation. Each kiloton is equal to the force produced by 1,000 tons of TNT.

 

[Gilligan]

North Korea May Test Another Bomb, South Korea Says (Update7)

By Meeyoung Song

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea is aware of indications North Korea may be preparing to conduct a second nuclear explosion, after a report said U.S. satellites picked up activity at the site of the country's first test last week.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCKgBNfs0sY4&refer=home

 

[Gilligan]

NKorea: Sanctions are declaration of war By JAE-SOON CHANG, Associated Press Writer




SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea on Tuesday blasted U.N. sanctions aimed at punishing the country for its nuclear test, saying the measures amount to a declaration of war and that the nation wouldn't cave in to such pressure now that it's a nuclear weapons power.
The North broke two days of silence about the U.N. resolution adopted after its Oct. 9 nuclear test, issuing a Foreign Ministry statement on its official Korean Central News Agency.

"The resolution cannot be construed otherwise than a declaration of a war" against the North, also known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061017/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear

 

[Show-me]

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/moab.htm

 

[airlift]

Yesterday The USD reached an intraday high of 87.20 (.05 basis points higher than the 200 day moving average of 87.15); and then retreated to close at 86.98. Since the markets don't move in a straight line, and now we have additional problems with NK, which could strengthen the USD as a safe-haven currency in times of international turmoil and uncertainty. This is something to consider as we watch the I fund to determine a good entry point.

 

[airlift]

I am looking for a better entry point to return to the I fund, but am considering going 100% G fund for a few days, even if I miss out on some upside. Currently, I am 30G, 70S, but preservation of capital is important in an overbought market. Moreover, October is a tricky month. Don't follow my fears, just take them into account! -- --

Yesterday The USD reached an intraday high of 87.20 (.05 basis points higher than the 200 day moving average of 87.15); and then retreated to close at 86.98. Since the markets don't move in a straight line, and now we have additional problems with NK, which could strengthen the USD as a safe-haven currency in times of international turmoil and uncertainty. This is something to consider as we watch the I fund to determine a good entry point.

 

[airlift]

Core PPI .6%, instead of the expected .2%. What do you think?

 

[Ichiro]

29oct-fsu-fibonacci and other cycles converging in nov 06. We may see the end of the summer/autumn rally shortly after the election.

"We are going to examine some cycle work that suggests a trend turn is possible, maybe even likely, in November.

On January 14th, 2000, we saw the previous all-time nominal top in the Dow Industrials at 11,749.97, the Fibonacci 21st week from August 25th, 1999. The next major top occurred on April 12th, 2000, at 11,423.90, one week before a Fibonacci 34 weeks from August 25th, 1999. The next major top occurred on September 6th, 2000, one week before a Fibonacci 55 weeks from August 25th, 1999, at 11,401.19. Then, the next major top in the Dow Industrials occurred on May 11th, 2001 at 11,350.05, one week after a Fibonacci 89 weeks from August 25th, 1999. Then, the next major top occurred on May 17th, 2002, at 10,353.43, one week before a Fibonacci 144 weeks from August 25th, 1999. Then, the next major top occurred on February 19th, 2004 at 10,753.63, a precise Fibonacci 233 weeks from August 25th, 1999’s top. Next up is November 17th, 2006 +/- one week, a Fibonacci 377 weeks from August 25th, 1999, three weeks from now. This suggests we might see an end to the summer/autumn rally shortly after the election."

for info:http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2006/1028.html

 

[Ichiro]

28oct-bloomberg-japan's core consumer price gains slow

by mayumi otsuma

"Japan's consumer price gains unexpectedly slowed, prompting speculation the central bank will refrain from raising interest rates until next year.

``The BOJ is taking a forward-looking view,'' said Richard Jerram, chief Japan economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. It is saying ```we are worried that the growth will lead to some sort of inflation and imbalances in the future and therefore we are going to keep pumping rates higher.'''



Wages to Rise

The central bank will next meet to decide rates on Oct. 31, the same day it releases a semi-annual outlook on the economy and inflation. All but one of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the bank to keep rates on hold at the meeting."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aJjPsZqgRizQ&refer=japan

`

 

[Ichiro]

23nov-daily fx-How does the US dollar perform over the month of December?

byAntonio Sousa

"As many technical analysis traders will attest, patterns have and do form in the financial markets. The definition of Seasonality is that patterns occur predictably at given times of the year. Therefore it should come as no surprise then that there is also an interesting pattern in the US dollar’s behavior in the month of December.

US Dollar – Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

Since 2002, the U.S. dollar has depreciated against the Japanese yen during the month of December but over the past 20 years, the U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese Yen 9 out of 26 times, which indicates a very low seasonality factor. On average, the Japanese yen gained 3.41 percent during the positive months and lost 2.04 percent during the negative months."

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/061122/1164235705336.html?.v=1

 

[Ichiro]

23nov-daily fx-Carry Trade Liquidation Hits the US DollarWednesday November 22, 3:59 pm ET

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com

"US Dollar – Traders banked their four day rolls at the close of business yesterday and began a massive liquidation out of carry trades that sent the US dollar sliding to its lowest level against the Euro in 14 months. Just as everyone has settled into the notion that it would be a quiet trading week, volatility spiked and currencies began to move. Given that many US and Japanese traders have left early for the holidays, which is quite common this time of the year, the lack of significant liquidity is sure to have played a major role in today’s exaggerated price action. The dollar’s biggest drop was against the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen, both of which are very popular carry trades. Looking ahead, we want to warn that the combination of a depreciating dollar and a bleaker US economic outlook could resurrect talk of reserve diversification by central banks. This was the same case in 2004 when talk of reserve diversification was at its peak as the Euro surged from 1.22 to 1.3660 in a matter of 3.5 months. With the market so dollar bearish, any talk of reserve diversification could take the EUR/USD above 1.30. According to an interesting price study that we published as a special report today on DailyFX.com, over the past 20 years, the US dollar depreciated against the Euro 15 out of those 20 years during the month of December. The seasonality is even more apparent if we zoom into the past 12 years, where there were only two instances that the US dollar managed to rally in the last month of year. Meanwhile only minor economic data was released today. Weekly mortgage applications dropped last week by 3.7 percent, erasing most of the prior week’s gains. Jobless claims ticked higher, bringing the 4 week average to 317k, which signals that payrolls could be a bit softer in November. The final University of Michigan consumer confidence index was also revised down from 92.3 to 92.1 as consumers were slightly less optimistic about the current economy.

Japanese Yen – Carry trade liquidation was the main driver of today’s rally in the Japanese Yen. No meaningful economic data was released last night and the market completely shrugged off the Japanese Cabinet’s first downgrade of their economic assessment since December 2004. The government is worried about consumer spending which has long been one of Japan’s major economic problems. The prior weakness in the Yen should help to keep demand domestic while also boosting the export sector. We still believe that Japan is on the road to recovery and expect incoming economic data to reflect that. Japanese markets are closed tonight for the country’s Labor Thanksgiving Day."

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/061122/1164232768669.html?.v=1