Asian News

[Ichiro]

3jan-ap-Dollar Falls Against Major Currencies

By J.W. Elphinstone, AP Business Writer


NEW YORK (AP) -- "The dollar fell against other major currencies Tuesday during thin holiday trading and ahead of key economic reports this week.

The euro bought $1.3276 in afternoon New York trading, up from $1.3163 late Friday in New York. Exchanges were closed on Monday due to the New Year's Day holiday.


The European currency is now used by 13 countries after Slovenia adopted the euro on Monday.

The British pound also rose to $1.9729, up from $1.9613 on Friday. The dollar weakened against the Japanese currency, slipping to 118.85 yen from 118.90 yen on Friday.

"The real money players globally have not come back from the holidays yet. We'll start to see some real flows tomorrow, Thursday and Friday," said Michael Woolfolk, a senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York. "We're dollar negative today, but I don't think that's any leading indicator for the rest of the week.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070102/dollar.html?.v=7

 

[Ichiro]

3jan- Daily FX-US Dollar Sells Off on First Trading Day of 2007

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist s


US Dollar

"2007 has started with a bang even though the US equity markets were closed for the National Mourning Day. After at least a week of compressed volatility, we have finally seen a breakout in the currency market as the US dollar came under severe selling pressure. Traders are telling the market that they do not want to be long dollars ahead of the busy data week. There was originally a lot of important data due for release today, but that is now pushed out to Wednesday. Tomorrow we are expecting not only the manufacturing ISM survey, but also one of the “leading indicators” for December payrolls, which is the ADP Employment index. ISM and payrolls are this shortened trading week’s most important economic releases. The ADP report is projected to forecast a smaller payroll gain in December than in November. The size of the surprise, if any could set the tone for trading until we see the actual payrolls report on Friday. We would need to see very strong payroll growth to reverse the hold that dollar bears have on the market right now. "

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070102/1167773729925.html?.v=1

 

[Ichiro]

3jan-bloomberg-Asian Stocks Fall From Record; Thai Shares Drop After Bombings

By Chen Shiyin and Chua Kong Ho

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- "Asian stocks fell, led by Thai shares after deadly bomb attacks added to investor concerns following a military coup and the imposition of currency controls. Thai Airways International Pcl and Bangkok Bank Pcl slumped.

``The latest bombings in Thailand have created even more uncertainty,'' said Teng Ngiek Lian, chief executive officer at Target Asset Management in Singapore, which manages $1.6 billion. ``Tourism-related stocks will be the worst-hit. Banks and consumer stocks will be affected as well.''

South Korea's Kospi index declined after the government predicted that exports, the mainstay of the economy, will cool. Samsung Electronics Co. and Korea Electric Power Corp. fell following analyst downgrades. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. led Australian shares lower after a cyclone disrupted output. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aCQsyot6dHa4&refer=asia

 

[Ichiro]

3jan-Yen May Rise on Rates, Say Banks Who Anticipated Drop (Update4)

By Agnes Lovasz and Ye Xie

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- "Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., Barclays Plc and Investors Bank & Trust Co., among the handful of firms that correctly predicted last year's drop in the yen, say the currency will rebound as Japanese interest rates rise.

The yen may jump 8 percent to 109 against the dollar in 2007, the most in three years, and climb for the first time since 1999 versus the euro, according to the median of forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of 40 analysts.

Economists estimate the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at least twice by the end of March, after central bank Governor Toshihiko Fukui told business leaders in a Christmas Day address that increasing wages may stoke inflation. Most strategists predicted a rally in the yen last year only to see hedge funds and Japanese investors spurn the currency for higher-yielding markets.

``We're looking for appreciation,'' said Osamu Takashima, chief analyst for global-market sales and trading at Tokyo-based Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, the nation's biggest bank. He raised his year-end forecast to 110 to the dollar from 112 last month because ``Japan is in a tightening cycle.''

The yen rose to 118.82 per dollar at 4 p.m. in New York from 119.04 late yesterday. It fell 0.2 percent last week to 119.07 against the U.S. currency and lost 0.7 percent versus the euro after Fukui also said on Dec. 25 that consumer spending is ``somewhat weak.''

Rate Increases

``Our view is the yen will be at 110 by the end of the year,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency analyst at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. ``We see four interest-rate hikes this year.'' "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a3z5RR8AddBA&refer=japan

 

[Ichiro]

3jan-fsu-THE ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN IN BONDS WARNS OF A RECESSION IN 2007
by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.


"We believe the risks for Bondholders leans toward a rise in prices, and substantially declining long-term interest rates. This is frightening, as it means we are about to enter another recession, one that could be deeper than we have seen in a long time. Why do we see this as an increasing risk? Primarily what has changed is the development of a Symmetrical or hybrid Ascending Bullish triangle from 2002, shown below. Triangles are usually wave fours, so that means we have a wave five up coming after this pattern completes. Whether this pattern is a Symmetrical Triangle or is an Ascending Triangle, both are Bullish for prices. In the case of a Symmetrical, the trend leading into the triangle is the trend that will continue after it completes — in this case up. In the case of Ascending, they are almost always Bullish."

for info:

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2006/1230.html

 

[Ichiro]

3jan-ap- AP-Stock Futures Rise Sharply

Stock Futures Rise Sharply on 1st Trading Day of 2007; Dow Futures Are Up 68

LONDON (AP) -- "U.S. stock futures rose sharply to start the new year on Wednesday, as investors viewed strong sales data from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. over the weekend as a sign that the holiday shopping season was better than expected and also looked at a downturn in crude oil futures.

In a heavy day for economic data, monthly auto sales and a key manufacturing gauge are due to be released, as are minutes from the last Federal Reserve interest-rate meeting.

S&P 500 futures rose 7.7 points at 1,436.10 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 14.5 points at 1,789.50. Dow industrial futures rose 68 points."

For info:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070103/wall_street.html?.v=4

 

[Ichiro]

4jan-ap- AP
Dollar Up Against Euro on ISM Strength

Dollar Up Against Euro After Positive U.S. Manufacturing Report

BERLIN (AP) -- "The dollar rose against the euro on Wednesday after a report detected unexpected strength in the U.S. manufacturing industry.

In afternoon trading in Europe, the continent's 13-nation currency bought $1.3188, down from $1.3276 in New York trading late Tuesday.

ADVERTISEMENT
The British pound dropped sharply, trading at $1.9528, down from $1.9729. The dollar also gained to 119.44 yen from 118.85 yen late Tuesday.

The dollar gained after a survey found that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in December, reversing the previous month's contraction.

The Institute for Supply Management's December index came in at 51.4, compared with a consensus forecast of 50.0 and November's 49.5. A reading above 50 signal expansion, while one below indicates a contraction."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070103/dollar.html?.v=4

 

[Ichiro]

4jan-bloomberg-U.S. Stocks Drop After Fed Minutes; Energy Shares Slide on Oil

By Michael Patterson

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) --" U.S. stocks reversed course and dropped on their first day of trading this year as a tumble in oil prices sent energy shares lower, while comments from the Federal Reserve dimmed the prospects for an interest-rate cut.

Exxon Mobil Corp. led the decline as crude oil had its biggest plunge in 20 months. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index erased its gain following the release of the minutes of the Fed's Dec. 12 meeting, at which policy makers concluded the risk that inflation would fail to slow was ``the predominant concern.''

``That language of inflation being the primary concern effectively threw cold water on any imminent rate cuts,'' said Jack Ablin, who helps manage $50 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. ``That's certainly unwelcome news for stocks.''

The S&P 500 slipped 6.56, or 0.5 percent, to 1411.74 as of 2:50 p.m. in New York. The benchmark earlier climbed as much as 0.8 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 15.25, or 0.6 percent, to 2400.04. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aggiuNUrIl3A&refer=home

 

[Ichiro]

4jan-bloomberg-Oil Falls the Most Since April 2005 as Mild Weather Cuts Demand

By Mark Shenk

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- "Crude oil in New York plunged the most in 20 months as mild U.S. weather curbed heating demand and traders speculated that fuel supplies increased.

Home-heating demand in the Northeast, the region responsible for 80 percent of U.S. heating-oil use, will be 43 percent below normal through Jan. 10, said forecaster Weather Derivatives. U.S. fuel stockpiles probably rose last week, according to the median of responses in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices are heading for the biggest one-day decline since April 27, 2005.

``The entire focus is on the weather,'' said Tom Bentz, an oil broker with BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. ``It looks like it will be at least mid-January before we get any hint of real cold weather in the Northeast.''

Crude oil for February delivery fell $2.80, or 4.6 percent, to $58.25 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $58.12, the lowest since Nov. 20. Oil is down 7.8 percent from a year ago. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQmSRD3VgcdA&refer=worldwide

 

[Ichiro]

4jan-bloomberg-Pound Has Biggest Daily Drop Since 2005: World's Biggest Mover

By Gavin Finch

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- "The U.K. pound fell against the dollar, the biggest fluctuation of any currency today, on speculation an earlier rally to the strongest in almost a month already reflected prospects for another interest-rate increase.

The currency had its biggest daily drop versus the dollar in almost 14 months after a report yesterday showed manufacturing growth weakened in December to the slowest pace in nine months. Traders last month cut bets the pound will gain, after it reached a 14-year high against the U.S. currency, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

``Sterling looks very fully valued, and that in the extreme,'' given the interest-rate outlook, said Jeremy Stretch, senior currency strategist at Rabobank Groep in London.

The pound fell against all 16 of the most actively traded currencies, trading at $1.9495 at 4:30 p.m. in London after earlier touching $1.9490, from $1.9737 yesterday. Against the euro, the pound was at 67.54 pence from 67.25 pence."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aQt.iT7rcpGA&refer=uk

 

[Ichiro]

6jan-Japan, U.S. warn N. Korea on nuke tests

By HANS GREIMEL, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 59 minutes ago

TOKYO - ""Japanese and U.S. officials warned Friday of tougher measures against
North Korea if the isolated communist nation conducts a second nuclear test.

Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice said that a second nuclear test "no doubt would deepen its isolation."

Rice and
South Korea's foreign minister, Song Min-Soon, agreed at a news conference in Washington that their governments want negotiations on North Korea's nuclear program resumed.

"If North Korea is prepared to return in a more constructive spirit" the talks could be reopened fairly soon, Rice said. But she added, "We know of no substantive response from the North Koreans."

The remarks came amid U.S. media reports that Pyongyang has appeared to have readied for another nuclear test and that the preparation steps were similar to those taken before its first nuclear detonation on Oct. 9. But Japanese and South Korean officials have not reported any signs that the North was preparing for another test.""

for info:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070106/ap_on_re_as/japan_nkorea

 

[Ichiro]

5jan-reuters-Emerging debt-Prices fall on interest rate woes
Fri Jan 5, 2007 5:13pm ET

By Walter Brandimarte

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) -"" Emerging sovereign bonds gave back part of their recent rally on Friday after a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report led investors to reduce their expectations of interest cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year.

A continued fall in commodities prices also weighed on Latin American markets despite a 1-percent recovery in crude prices, after losses of 9 percent during the previous two sessions.

Emerging debt returns fell 0.42 percent on average, erasing all of their gains year-to-date, according to the benchmark JP Morgan's EMBI+ index <11EMJ>. Bonds gained about 10 percent in 2006. ""

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...1-05_22-13-19_N05155738&type=comktNews&rpc=44

 

[Ichiro]

5jan-daily fx-- Daily FX
Dollar Surprise As NFPs Shirk Detractors
Friday January 5, 2:52 pm ET
By John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst strategist@dailyfx.com

""The long awaited US payrolls number offered the surprise that volatility traders were expecting. However, as the monthly figures continue to stabilize around 100,000 new hires a month, the question arises whether such a tepid indicator will still draw the crowds should similar prints be in the cards for the future.


Price action following today’s employment numbers was tame relative to what has been seen in the past. Against the euro, the dollar pushed 80 points ahead, before quietly settling just above 1.2980 support. Seeming to fall back into its congestive behavior, the USDJPY initial move totaled 55 points and lost upward momentum around 119. Unsurprisingly, the GBPUSD produced the biggest move for the day in a 95-point initial drop to trade around 1.93. Finally, USDCHF cleared 1.23 with its 70-point advance though 1.24 proved to be insurmountable with Friday’s thinning liquidity.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070105/1168030363416.html?.v=1

 

[Ichiro]

6jan-FOREX-Jobs data help extend dollar rally to third day
Fri Jan 5, 2007 4:18pm ET145

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) - ""The dollar gained for a third day on Friday after a surprising report on U.S. jobs growth in December led investors to scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rates cut in the next six months.

The euro plunged to a six-week low against the dollar after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy generated 167,000 new jobs in December, well above market expectations for a rise of 100,000. For more, see


"For the time being, with this reasonable number that you have, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut is off the table," said John McCarthy, vice president of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets in New York. "That's lending a bit of support to the dollar."

Several analysts said they are not expecting the Fed to cut interest rates from the present level of 5.25 percent any time soon, especially since the data also showed the largest rise in average hourly earnings in eight months.

Robust job growth, coupled with upward pressure on hourly wages, will likely keep the Fed concerned enough about inflation to leave its key interest rate on hold for at least several months to come, analysts said.""

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...1-05_21-18-01_N05429826&type=comktNews&rpc=44

 

[Ichiro]

7jan-fsu- THE WORLD AT A GLANCE-Global Economic Growth to Continue in 2007
by Monty Guild
Guild Investment Management, Inc.
January 4, 2007

""World economic growth for last year is a portent of growth for 2007.

In our opinion, world economic growth rates in 2007 will be much like 2006. The U.S. and Canada grew a little slower, and Europe a little faster, China and India grew very fast. China grew over 10% in 2006, and four countries total; China, India, Argentina and Venezuela grew at over 8%. Never have we seen economies of large countries grow like that.

If a country’s economy is growing at 8%, the better companies in that country can grow their earnings at a much faster 20 to 30% rate.

I look for more of the same in 2007. In addition, Eastern Europe may surprise many, as they start to grow faster than many had thought possible.

ON THE WHOLE, DECENT AND RESPECTABLE GROWTH WORLDWIDE IN 2007

For 2007, our estimates for real GDP (gross domestic product after removing inflation) for each country/region are as follows:
Europe
United Kingdom 2.5%
Scandinavia 3.5%
Switzerland 2.7%
E.U. Countries 2.4%
Asia
Japan 1.7%
China 10.0%
India 8.0%
Other Asia 6.6%
North and South America
Latin America 4.0%
United States 2.2%
Canada 2.4%

WHAT DO THESE GROWTH RATES MEAN?

Basically, we are looking for ok economic growth for the world, and much better than ok growth for China, India, Eastern Europe much of Asia. The growth in Western Europe and North America should also be ok.

The strategy should be to wait for corrections, and buy when others are pessimistic. The media will continue to beat the drum that the U.S. economy and market are doing stunningly well. This is true in the short run, however for the last few years this is not true. The reality is that the S&P 500 has gone nowhere for six and 1/2 years, the Dow Jones Index is up only a few percent over the same amount of time, and the NASDAQ Composite is still down 40% from its highs in early 2000.

The last few months have been good, and the last 3 years acceptable, but the beating that the market took from 2000 to 2002 is still affecting many U.S. stocks.

Foreign markets have significantly outperformed the U.S. since 2000, and in our opinion will continue to for the next few years. With foreign markets, there will, be plenty of volatility, and we plan to buy on the dips.

The U.S. market should be ok, but not great. The market and economy may weaken and bottom in the middle part of the year, and be followed by a modest recovery. Also, housing will probably recover in the later part of 2007.""

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/guild/2007/0104.html

 

[Ichiro]

7jan-fsu-EURO KEY TO US$ DECLINE
by Jim Willie CB
January 5, 2007


""The USDollar decline remains in progress, the one which began when the United States citizenry and its Wall Street aristocrats observed the great eating orgy known as Thanksgiving. Nothing can stop a holiday where Americans make eating the order of the day. All else sits still, even markets. The USDollar began its breakdown then, and it continues. The past week only served to provide a correction to the breakout. Technicians call it a revisit to the point of breakout. Some offer that it is akin to a man emerging from a bathroom window. He sticks his head out first, then pulls back in. Next is emergence of the entire upper torso to be followed by the entire body afterwards. In this setting, the euro head moved back inside the bathroom. Next is the continuation of the foreign currency uptrend, with more uplegs, led by the euro and sterling. The yen is the wild card.

A starkly plain fact of economic life is that a USDollar correction contradicts all claims of a USEconomic recovery. Instead, it screams “RECESSION” and confirms the inverted Treasury Yield Curve. The slump in the energy and copper market also testifies to the recession underway. Don’t look to the Banking Stock Index BKX for guidance, since those guys are way too competent to miss speculative opportunities to make big money. The spread trades (to profit off yield differentials) and the carry trades (to do the same within different currencys) offer the big banks plenty of opportunity to pick low fruit for profit. They are most likely tipped off by Goldman Suchs after they have their positions in place, with an “all clear” on absent risk. The magnets for investment in the last twelve months have been outside the United States all year long, another signal of USDollar unattractiveness.

FIRST STAGE OF USDOLLAR BREAKDOWN

Much talk has floated like verbal vomit about the benefit to US exporters from a lower USDollar. If so, then the net benefit to the USEconomy would show up in a remedied trade gap. This is mere material suitable for promotional literature at Wall Street firms, surely not fit in our world. One needs a manufacturing base to pull off that stunt. Not happening. We still import much more than export, as any recovery is founded upon imported goods purchased in both retail consumption and foreign made equipment. Import growth has superceded export growth since 2003. Also, multi-national firms will enjoy favorable currency translation of operations, but that encourages more jobs shipped overseas. To be sure, Caterpillar and Boeing will benefit from currency translation. Talk of benefits is pure political pablum and Wall Street deceptive spin. Any market correction to the obscenity whereby the United States demands 80% of world capital will NOT come with any benefits, only pain, crisis, financial loss, and disruption. Probably war too.

When the buck broke down in thin holiday trading during the week of Thanksgiving, the real story was with the major international currencies. The euro, swissy, aussie, and sterling all jumped markedly, enough to grab headline news. The USDollar breakdown, plunge, steep decline, severe adjustment shook the global financial world and captured its attention in loud manner. The intractable imbalances are not resolvable, and will present a clear & present danger for years to come. What happened in late November was the first of a great many earthquakes in a long sequence whose trade and debt imbalances serve as tectonic plate gaps rubbed raw by destructive foreign policy discourse amidst power games. The earthquake event six weeks ago made all the more urgent the economic summit meeting in China. The summit might buy more time, but will not in any way fix anything. The main outcome will be for more Wall Street profiteering. More IPO’s are in the pipeline, ensuring heavy profit for Chinese leaders on the inside track, and for Wall Street firms who are also on the inside track. The line between government and big private firms has been blurred, if not eradicated, all in the Mussolini tradition without a peep objection by the clueless public."

for info:

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2007/0105.html

 

[airlift]

I respect Ichiro's freedom of expression. However, I can see a lot of hostility and anger towards the United States and towards Wall Street. This hostility I do not share. Nevertheless, the contents of his post refer to matters beyond my area of expertise. Moreover, I am not an economist or a stockbroker. I don't know if he is on the right track or not regarding the U.S. economy. Perhaps the economy is going through transition pains associated with globalization and/or free trade. I defer to others more knowlegeable than I, in financial matters. Good luck!

 

[pyriel]

I respect Ichiro's freedom of expression. However, I can see a lot of hostility and anger towards the United States and towards Wall Street. This hostility I do not share. Nevertheless, the contents of his post refer to matters beyond my area of expertise. Moreover, I am not an economist or a stockbroker. I don't know if he is on the right track or not regarding the U.S. economy. Perhaps the economy is going through transition pains associated with globalization and/or free trade. I defer to others more knowlegeable than I, in financial matters. Good luck!

I have to admit that my way of thinking is congruent with Ichiro's posts. All of my recent readings seems to be pointing that way. We can also assess that by how international has been beating the US stock funds within the last few years. I'm not saying that this trend will be forever but for my short term range like 3-5 years, i'm betting on international outgrowing our US stock funds.
P

 

[dell]

I respect Ichiro's freedom of expression. However, I can see a lot of hostility and anger towards the United States and towards Wall Street. This hostility I do not share. Nevertheless, the contents of his post refer to matters beyond my area of expertise. Moreover, I am not an economist or a stockbroker. I don't know if he is on the right track or not regarding the U.S. economy. Perhaps the economy is going through transition pains associated with globalization and/or free trade. I defer to others more knowlegeable than I, in financial matters. Good luck!

Where do you see anger towards the U.S.? What in the world are you looking at? He is one of the most valuable posters on this board and has been for a long time. He does the research most of us do not have time to do and posts the articles he finds for us to use or ignor as we sit fit.

Please direct me to the post in which this hostility is displayed against the U.S. Clearly I have missed it and I would like to read it so I can come to my own conclusion.

Thanks - Dell

 

[350zCommTech]

I respect Ichiro's freedom of expression. However, I can see a lot of hostility and anger towards the United States and towards Wall Street. This hostility I do not share. Nevertheless, the contents of his post refer to matters beyond my area of expertise. Moreover, I am not an economist or a stockbroker. I don't know if he is on the right track or not regarding the U.S. economy. Perhaps the economy is going through transition pains associated with globalization and/or free trade. I defer to others more knowlegeable than I, in financial matters. Good luck!

Those are not his opinions. Like Birch, he's just doing a copy/paste of the articles, hence the links below them. These articles provide insights to the OSMs and their currencies' direction.