11/17/25
Stocks were mixed but slightly lower on Friday but it was another Friday that saw the lows of the day coming in the morning, with an afternoon rally that recouped most of the losses, although once again the late action in the final hour was on the weak side. The I-fund lagged with the dollar moving higher, and small caps and the F-fund were under pressure from rising yields.
The Hindenburg Omen signals continue to trigger. I believe there have been five now, and that's when these have been more effective - when they come in bunches.
According to investopedia.com: The Hindenburg Omen is a technical indicator designed to signal the increased probability of a stock market crash.
Four criteria must be met to signal a Hindenburg omen:
* The daily number of new 52-week highs and 52-week lows in a stock market index exceeds a threshold amount (typically set at 2.2%).
* The 52-week highs can't be more than twice the 52-week lows.
* The stock market index is still in an uptrend. A 10-week moving average or the 50-day rate of change indicator is used for this.
* The McClellan oscillator (MCO), a measure of the shift in market sentiment, is negative.
The takeaway is that not all signals precede market melt downs, but many market melt-downs are preceded by a series of these signals. The distinction is that if we took them all literally we be selling too often, but when you were right, you were very right.
Five signals is nothing to sneeze at and our long-time forum member James48843 has been stressing his concern and posting a lot of good information here.
Here is one of the charts he posted and it is from www.mcoscillator.com/.
My personal outlook has been that once we get past this mid-November swoon, stocks will catch their breath again and rallying to the holidays. Now I have to pause and consider this development.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was flat on Friday - a very similar day to the prior Friday where a morning sell off was reversed back toward break even. It has been hanging on by a thread, looking over a precipice and a lot white space on the chart. Some of the smaller cap and broader indices have already broken their channel and trend.
The 10-year Treasury Yield popped higher on Friday as the bull flag we were watching did break out to end the week. It looks like it may be looking to tag that blue 200-day average at some point.
The dollar was up modestly on Friday but it had been trending lower this month, falling below some support.
Why is this happening? The probability of an interest rate cut at the December FOMC meeting is down to 44%. That's not as good as it was a week or a month ago, but one other thing the Fed is doing in December is ending their quantitative tightening. That will help market liquidity and should help boost demand for stocks, and after any sell off, there could be a race to buy, meaning anymore downside could be met with a sharp reversal - maybe not the likes of the COVID crash bottom and its huge reversal, but bullish for the same reasons.
More money in the system, plus the possibility of those tariff refund checks being sent out, has the market and the Fed a little concerned about inflation again, which leads to higher interest rates. I believe that is what investors are wrestling with during this recent market turmoil.
The government is back open, but I'm not sure what that means for near-term economic data since data collection had been on hold for weeks.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) managed to remain inside the red bullish looking flag, but there's not a lot of other bullish ways to describe this chart after it broke down early this month. Small caps tend to be more volatile and the chart can be a little less clean so I haven't completely given up on it yet, but it is starting to look like it wants to test that blue 200-day average down near 2350. Hopefully I am wrong and the bull flag remains intact and does what bull flags tend to do - eventually breakout to the upside.
ACWX (I-fund) was down modestly on Friday (0.14%) with the dollar up 0.14%. The I-fund price was down a little more and that happens for several reasons, so I wouldn't be surprised if its adjusted upward with Monday's price. The trading channel remains intact. The open gap below was basically filled but with the support line at 66 it could get tested again.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down as yields start to head higher. It will be an interesting test at that 50-day average early this week, to see if this wants to completely break down. There's a lot of support-less white space in between that 50 and 200 day averages.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mixed but slightly lower on Friday but it was another Friday that saw the lows of the day coming in the morning, with an afternoon rally that recouped most of the losses, although once again the late action in the final hour was on the weak side. The I-fund lagged with the dollar moving higher, and small caps and the F-fund were under pressure from rising yields.
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The Hindenburg Omen signals continue to trigger. I believe there have been five now, and that's when these have been more effective - when they come in bunches.
According to investopedia.com: The Hindenburg Omen is a technical indicator designed to signal the increased probability of a stock market crash.
Four criteria must be met to signal a Hindenburg omen:
* The daily number of new 52-week highs and 52-week lows in a stock market index exceeds a threshold amount (typically set at 2.2%).
* The 52-week highs can't be more than twice the 52-week lows.
* The stock market index is still in an uptrend. A 10-week moving average or the 50-day rate of change indicator is used for this.
* The McClellan oscillator (MCO), a measure of the shift in market sentiment, is negative.
The takeaway is that not all signals precede market melt downs, but many market melt-downs are preceded by a series of these signals. The distinction is that if we took them all literally we be selling too often, but when you were right, you were very right.
Five signals is nothing to sneeze at and our long-time forum member James48843 has been stressing his concern and posting a lot of good information here.
Here is one of the charts he posted and it is from www.mcoscillator.com/.
My personal outlook has been that once we get past this mid-November swoon, stocks will catch their breath again and rallying to the holidays. Now I have to pause and consider this development.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was flat on Friday - a very similar day to the prior Friday where a morning sell off was reversed back toward break even. It has been hanging on by a thread, looking over a precipice and a lot white space on the chart. Some of the smaller cap and broader indices have already broken their channel and trend.
The 10-year Treasury Yield popped higher on Friday as the bull flag we were watching did break out to end the week. It looks like it may be looking to tag that blue 200-day average at some point.
The dollar was up modestly on Friday but it had been trending lower this month, falling below some support.
Why is this happening? The probability of an interest rate cut at the December FOMC meeting is down to 44%. That's not as good as it was a week or a month ago, but one other thing the Fed is doing in December is ending their quantitative tightening. That will help market liquidity and should help boost demand for stocks, and after any sell off, there could be a race to buy, meaning anymore downside could be met with a sharp reversal - maybe not the likes of the COVID crash bottom and its huge reversal, but bullish for the same reasons.
More money in the system, plus the possibility of those tariff refund checks being sent out, has the market and the Fed a little concerned about inflation again, which leads to higher interest rates. I believe that is what investors are wrestling with during this recent market turmoil.
The government is back open, but I'm not sure what that means for near-term economic data since data collection had been on hold for weeks.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) managed to remain inside the red bullish looking flag, but there's not a lot of other bullish ways to describe this chart after it broke down early this month. Small caps tend to be more volatile and the chart can be a little less clean so I haven't completely given up on it yet, but it is starting to look like it wants to test that blue 200-day average down near 2350. Hopefully I am wrong and the bull flag remains intact and does what bull flags tend to do - eventually breakout to the upside.
ACWX (I-fund) was down modestly on Friday (0.14%) with the dollar up 0.14%. The I-fund price was down a little more and that happens for several reasons, so I wouldn't be surprised if its adjusted upward with Monday's price. The trading channel remains intact. The open gap below was basically filled but with the support line at 66 it could get tested again.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down as yields start to head higher. It will be an interesting test at that 50-day average early this week, to see if this wants to completely break down. There's a lot of support-less white space in between that 50 and 200 day averages.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
