amoeba's Account Talk

[FAB1]

Re: I'm not an expert, but starfox is.....

my 25% bet on F-fund is working,

Keep any eye on everything for right now. It's usually calm before a storm.

I am keeping an eye on the F, was in there the last days of March. I lost a little bit, not much

2 days ago the F tumbled -.52
I like it better when the F produces small gains or losses.

 

[JTH]

The F-Fund is like having a girlfriend out of your league. She will take you money, your dignity, and your best friend...

 

[amoeba]

Birchtree's "profitable round trip" not so profitable

I did make three profitable round trip tickets on the I fund in the last two years - it all adds up. I'm trying to do the same strategy again.

Roundtrips to I-fund? No you didn't. One of the beauties of this website is that anyone who participates can look at each other's records. I'm looking at your IFT allocation right now, and you were never less than 65% in C fund that whole time, and never less than 10% in the I fund.

And, when you did move into I fund, in late 2007 and even increased your allocation in 2008 (from 22-35%), you got clobbered to the tune of -43% for 2008 for that portion of your TSP.

Not that it makes that much difference - if you were in all C-fund - you would have lost a mere 37%, and you did, but on average your return is about -40% for 2008.

 

[Birchtree]

The tracker doesn't tell the whole story - it only works in percentages and not dollars. That's what is giving you the wrong impression - but it doesn't really matter now does it. Dollar cost averaging has always been my portfolio redeemer and that's what's important. Didn't you track those trades made in 2007 and 2008? In April'08 I was 30% in the I fund at $22.83.

 

[anthony]

Re: I'm not an expert, but starfox is.....

I think we may be looking at more sideways action until the end of this month (second consecutive positive jobs report(?), if revisions hold).....which is one of several reasons I'm overweighting equities.

Keep any eye on everything for right now. It's usually calm before a storm.

I think we're starting to see the beginnings of a pretty quick down-and-back trip to the DOW 10650 area, then a strong follow through into the 12000 range.

There is some possibility that it won't even happen if your sideways action variation pans out, so for me the big takeaway is this opportunity is going to be tough to nail. There are a ton of people just waiting for a buying opportunity, so even if we get 10,650 or even 10,500, it'll probably hit intraday.

 

[Birchtree]

Again in June'09 in the I fund at 35% at $14.97. Oh now I see - you're thinking a round trip requires a 100% position. I always use DCAing to build my position and then use the same technique to ease out of a position. Such as my recent maneuvers into the I fund. I moved a 5% position out at $19.05 and put back 10% at $17.61 and then moved 5% out at $18.66 and would like to move another 5% at $19.61. Does that make sense? or have I further confused the issue.

 

[amoeba]

Again in June'09 in the I fund at 35% at $14.97. Oh now I see - you're thinking a round trip requires a 100% position. I always use DCAing to build my position and then use the same technique to ease out of a position. Such as my recent maneuvers into the I fund. I moved a 5% position out at $19.05 and put back 10% at $17.61 and then moved 5% out at $18.66 and would like to move another 5% at $19.61. Does that make sense? or have I further confused the issue.

No, birchtree. I didn't say you needed to be in 100%. What I said is that you are always in equities in 2008 - never moving out, and if you did, increasing your position in I fund, at the same time that it was losing money. As far as the recent maneuvers go, 5% moves in equities when, in your case, you have 90-100% in equities, is hardly considered much of a "move". I like what you are doing, however, that is seeing if you can do better than no moves at all - using a small portion of your TSP.

But basically, your IFT record shows that you buy and hold equities, never moving significantly out, not even for a day, for years and years and years.

Buying and holding works when the markets always go up, and not otherwise. The last decade has been otherwise.

 

[PessOptimist]

Re: I'm not an expert, but starfox is.....

my 25% bet on F-fund is working, but starfox's 66% is doing even better; he's the only other member out of the last 60 or so IFT's posed that put any money in the F-fund besides me.

Keep any eye on everything for right now. It's usually calm before a storm.

Not to worry, your bet probably will pay off more since I moved my 40% out of F COB today.:cheesy: I got tired of watching it flounder around since I bought it March 19th.

 

[Birchtree]

amoeba,

Does the last decade include the last bull market that started in March '03 and ran until October '07? I manage three family accounts which allows me a certain degree of versatility to buy and hold and swing trade. I already gave you my gross proceeds from my oceanic account from 2008, 2009, and so far for 2010. I will tell you I made money every year the bull was running - I did take a $1M haircut in the fall of 2008 but still had more to give up - and have made it all back and then some. My TSP tugboat is just frosting on a much larger cake - even though the tugboat is substantially hefty in balance.
Whenever you can dollar cost average bi-monthly into low prices it doesn't take long to recoup any damage - but it's absolutely necessary to put good money down the well during tough times. I sincerely doubt that TSP participants will ever see prices again that were available during the bear market. So I'm fortunate to do the amount of buying I did do but it took courage and as I get older those accumulated shares will provide a comfortable zone to play around in.

 

[Birchtree]

I went back and looked at my gross proceeds for the years 2006 and 2007. The gross proceeds for '06 were $165,674 and for '07 they were $428,644. I won't tell you what I paid in taxes but all profits and principal are reinvested.

 

[amoeba]

DCA is not a strategy

amoeba,

Does the last decade include the last bull market that started in March '03 and ran until October '07? I manage three family accounts which allows me a certain degree of versatility to buy and hold and swing trade. I already gave you my gross proceeds from my oceanic account from 2008, 2009, and so far for 2010. I will tell you I made money every year the bull was running - I did take a $1M haircut in the fall of 2008 but still had more to give up - and have made it all back and then some. My TSP tugboat is just frosting on a much larger cake - even though the tugboat is substantially hefty in balance.
Whenever you can dollar cost average bi-monthly into low prices it doesn't take long to recoup any damage - but it's absolutely necessary to put good money down the well during tough times. I sincerely doubt that TSP participants will ever see prices again that were available during the bear market. So I'm fortunate to do the amount of buying I did do but it took courage and as I get older those accumulated shares will provide a comfortable zone to play around in.

Birch - dollar cost averaging doesn't do ANYTHING different from buying and holding. Our TSP accounts put fixed dollar contributions in; you get more shares when they are cheap, BUT FEWER SHARES WHEN THEY ARE EXPENSIVE. So, this "strategy" does nothing.

Whatever you "made" in 2003-7, you lost and then some the next year. Making money "every year the bull is running" as you say, doesn't count unless you pull the money out before the market craters.

I can't comment on "oceanic" accounts, but whatever "hefty" balance you have in TSP, I suspect, is the same as 10 years ago - if you bought and held. Good luck to us all the rest of this week.

 

[amoeba]

Re: I'm not an expert, but starfox is.....

Not to worry, your bet probably will pay off more since I moved my 40% out of F COB today.:cheesy: I got tired of watching it flounder around since I bought it March 19th.

Well, I can understand your frustration, buying at the 3-month peak (I bought at the equivalent low - not boasting - just lucky in that case, and not with the concurrent move into C,S,I).

I've been fooled sometimes by the AGG ticker, which is NOT always reflected day to day by our F-fund price (it can go up, and our share price can go down, don't ask me why - I'm not sure anyone knows).

I may make a modest re-allocation depending on the F-fund share price when known, but not planning to bail on anything yet.

 

[Birchtree]

Perhaps you don't fully appreciate the DCA strategy - buying and accumulating more shares at much cheaper prices end up gaining in value as the prices rise and therefore so does the balance. I no longer qualify for DCA so now I will swing trade my account using the I fund for now. My goal has always been to accumulate 40,000 shares of the C fund and guess what....it's a nice feeling to have power in retirement. You'll be there someday, but it does require time in grade and accumulate and accumulate some more. Snort

 

[Handballer]

The F-Fund is like having a girlfriend out of your league. She will take you money, your dignity, and your best friend...

Ain't that the truth. After that, she's gone. I can smile again.

 

[amoeba]

does anyone understand what birchtree just said????

Perhaps you don't fully appreciate the DCA strategy - buying and accumulating more shares at much cheaper prices end up gaining in value as the prices rise and therefore so does the balance.

I fully appreciate what you are doing. But frankly, what you just said, above makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. If there's anyone else on this website that understands what birchtree is talking about - please chime in and explain it to both of us.

The number of shares means nothing to DCA, it is based on number of Dollars, not Shares. Now, if you did change your allocation in relation to the price of shares, that would be a strategy, but DCA is not that.

Anything you made, isn't based on what you're doing in TSP, which is substantially the same as buying and holding. That used to work, and it hasn't for awhile.

 

[JTH]

Re: does anyone understand what birchtree just said????

I fully appreciate what you are doing. But frankly, what you just said, above makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. If there's anyone else on this website that understands what birchtree is talking about - please chime in and explain it to both of us.

The number of shares means nothing to DCA, it is based on number of Dollars, not Shares. Now, if you did change your allocation in relation to the price of shares, that would be a strategy, but DCA is not that.

Anything you made, isn't based on what you're doing in TSP, which is substantially the same as buying and holding. That used to work, and it hasn't for awhile.

I'm lauging with you. DCA down, ok I get it. But we are in A bull trend so I fail to see how you can accumulate MORE shares with rising prices? Yes I realize you will have more shares, but when the market turns you've just lost ALL your value.

 

[anthony]

DCA does work, and it works for one simple reason. DCA eliminates emotion.

There are some people including folks on this board, who were able to dodge the crash and pick the bottom. I'd venture to guess maybe 5%.

There are people who dodged the crash and stood on the sidelines when it went back up.

There are people who went down with the crash, panicked at some point and bailed, and only got back in to some degree on the upswing, maybe missing a fair portion of it.

Then there are the DCA B&Hers - they bought the crash all the way to the bottom and all the way back up. They didn't panic because the automatic entries took emotions out of the mix. If they did panic, the auto DCAs eliminated that panic. The auto DCAs bought low priced stocks and are watching them payoff. They didn't miss the bottom because they were in the whole time. If they DCA'ed money into a falling market before it bottomed out, they still got shares cheaper than they are today. If they DCA'ed money into a rising stock market for eight months after the bottom, they still got shares cheaper than they are today or will be when DOW 13000 rolls around.

The timers and swings trader who nailed it are doing well. The ones who bailed but got back in late are probably comparable to a DCAer, but worked a lot harder to get there. The ones who let emotion reign are probably doing worse than a DCAer and will continue to do worse in the long term.

Technically I would classify what Birchtree is doing now more as asset reallocation than DCA, but I think you can DCA into a revised asset allocation, by moving the money/shares in small increments. And to further remove emotion (as long as you stick to your plan) you could do it on a specified day, i.e. DCA 5% from X to Y on the 1st and 15th of the month for three months to move 30% on an averaging approach. The ITF rules meant to curtail timing hurt this DCA method, as previously you could have moved 1% per day for a hundred days if you wanted, or say 1% per day every three days, to reallocate through DCA gradually over the course of an entire year.

Bottomline: Emotion is the enemy of the investor. Whatever method you use to destroy that emotion will help set you up for success, whether it's a backtested system, buy-sell technical signals, or DCA. For the less educated investor (probably most of us), DCA is the simplest and least emotion-based system out there.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: does anyone understand what birchtree just said????

I'm lauging with you. DCA down, ok I get it. But we are in A bull trend so I fail to see how you can accumulate MORE shares with rising prices? Yes I realize you will have more shares, but when the market turns you've just lost ALL your value.

Not all your value, only as far as the stop point on the downturn (Bottom)

JTH,
Value concerns are dependant on your age. If you're 5 years out or more from retirement share accumulation is the name of the game. BT's post insinuate that he is close to retirement, which IMHO, makes his plays risky for most peoples nerves. The more risk you take the more assumptions you must make. The assumptions are generally based on history. If you believe in market history, buy buy buy. Those that believe the market will not rebound and we are headed for a global melt down, I question their reasoning for being in any market in the first place.

 

[nasa1974]

I believe Birch is already retired. I also believe he uses his TSP account for fun. His real money is outside the TSP and if you read into his posts he could be in the lower 7 figure area. It sounds like the way he has spread his portfolio he can afford some minor ups and downs with little effect. If I am wrong in my speculations Birch will let me know real quick.

 

[WorkFE]

I happen to agree with you Nasa. Monopoly $:nuts: