Alternate LMBF methods

[Cactus]

Here is the monthly return as of 9/29/2020:

[TABLE="width: 450"]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFEC8B"]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #9AFF9A"]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEC8B"]29-Sep-2020[/TD]
[TD]0.06%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #9ACD32"]0.11%[/TD]
[TD](4.59%)[/TD]
[TD](3.52%)[/TD]
[TD](1.93%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The F Fund is the winner for Sep so the following IFTs take place before noon today, 30-Sep-2020.

•LMBF-1 Changes from the C Fund to the F Fund
•LMBF-1 SIM Remains in the F Fund through October
•LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the C Fund to the F Fund
•LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
•LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the C Fund to the F Fund

 

[Cactus]

Here is the monthly return as of 10/29/2020:

Date	G Fund	F Fund

[TD="width: 65"] C Fund [/TD]
[TD="width: 64"] S Fund [/TD]
[TD="width: 68"] I Fund [/TD]

[TD="width: 101, bgcolor: #ffec8b"] 29-Oct-2020[/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] 0.06%[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"] (0.35%) [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] (1.48%) [/TD]
[TD="width: 63, bgcolor: #9acd32"] 2.53%[/TD]
[TD="width: 68"] (3.46%) [/TD]

The S Fund is the winner for Oct so the following IFTs take place before noon today, 30-Oct-2020.

•LMBF-1 Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
•LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
•LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
•LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
•LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund

 

[Cactus]

Here is the monthly return as of 11/27/2020:

[TABLE="width: 450"]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFEC8B"]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #9AFF9A"]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEC8B"]27-Nov-2020[/TD]
[TD]0.06%[/TD]
[TD]0.92%[/TD]
[TD]11.44%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #9ACD32"]19.57%[/TD]
[TD]16.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S Fund is the winner for November as it was for October, so all our methods stay in the S Fund for another month.

 

[James48843]

Just wanted to say thank you for keeping up with this system.

I think it was McDuck who first was tracking the “last month best fund”, and I was doing it due a while too, but travel forced me to miss the calls too often to keep up, and I dropped the ball on trying to keep posting it.

I can tell you that after watching this for more than a decade, I’m convinced it really is among the top “systems” ever posted here on TSPTALK. While it doesn’t hit it right on 100% of the time, it HAS done wonders to bail out at key important Times, and to get back in when other ideas haven’t been anywhere near as good.

This system now is one of my heaviest weighted considerations as I move from active employee , into the realm of retiree. I am so glad that I’ve discovered the LMBF’s trustworthiness to me personally.

Thanks for keeping it up to date!


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[Bullitt]

This thread proves to me that there is such thing as momentum in markets. I do not believe markets behave in a "random walk".

 

[Cactus]

The S Fund is once again the winner for another month. That means all of our systems here enter the new year in the S Fund for January.

 

[Cactus]

Here are the returns for 2020:

[TABLE="width: 680"]
[TR="bgcolor: #87CEFA"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]S[/TD]
[TD]I[/TD]
[TD]LMBF-1[/TD]
[TD]C>S[/TD]
[TD]CI>S[/TD]
[TD]SIM[/TD]
[TD]G>F[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Jan[/TD]
[TD]0.17%[/TD]
[TD]1.91%[/TD]
[TD](0.04%)[/TD]
[TD](0.62%)[/TD]
[TD](2.73%)[/TD]
[TD](2.73%)[/TD]
[TD](2.73%)[/TD]
[TD](0.62%)[/TD]
[TD](2.73%)[/TD]
[TD](2.73%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Feb[/TD]
[TD]0.13%[/TD]
[TD]1.82%[/TD]
[TD](8.24%)[/TD]
[TD](8.01%)[/TD]
[TD](7.74%)[/TD]
[TD]1.82%[/TD]
[TD]1.82%[/TD]
[TD]1.82%[/TD]
[TD]1.82%[/TD]
[TD]1.82%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Mar[/TD]
[TD]0.11%[/TD]
[TD](0.64%)[/TD]
[TD](12.40%)[/TD]
[TD](21.40%)[/TD]
[TD](13.87%)[/TD]
[TD](0.64%)[/TD]
[TD](0.64%)[/TD]
[TD](0.64%)[/TD]
[TD](0.64%)[/TD]
[TD](0.64%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Apr[/TD]
[TD]0.07%[/TD]
[TD]1.78%[/TD]
[TD]12.81%[/TD]
[TD]15.81%[/TD]
[TD]6.42%[/TD]
[TD]0.07%[/TD]
[TD]0.07%[/TD]
[TD]0.07%[/TD]
[TD]0.07%[/TD]
[TD]1.78%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]May[/TD]
[TD]0.06%[/TD]
[TD]0.46%[/TD]
[TD]4.76%[/TD]
[TD]8.79%[/TD]
[TD]4.50%[/TD]
[TD]8.79%[/TD]
[TD]8.79%[/TD]
[TD]8.79%[/TD]
[TD]0.46%[/TD]
[TD]8.79%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Jun[/TD]
[TD]0.06%[/TD]
[TD]0.63%[/TD]
[TD]1.99%[/TD]
[TD]4.00%[/TD]
[TD]3.44%[/TD]
[TD]4.00%[/TD]
[TD]4.00%[/TD]
[TD]4.00%[/TD]
[TD]0.63%[/TD]
[TD]4.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Jul[/TD]
[TD]0.06%[/TD]
[TD]1.49%[/TD]
[TD]5.64%[/TD]
[TD]5.71%[/TD]
[TD]2.33%[/TD]
[TD]2.33%[/TD]
[TD]2.33%[/TD]
[TD]5.71%[/TD]
[TD]1.49%[/TD]
[TD]2.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Aug[/TD]
[TD]0.05%[/TD]
[TD](0.81%)[/TD]
[TD]7.19%[/TD]
[TD]7.20%[/TD]
[TD]5.12%[/TD]
[TD]7.20%[/TD]
[TD]7.20%[/TD]
[TD]7.20%[/TD]
[TD](0.81%)[/TD]
[TD]7.20%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Sep[/TD]
[TD]0.06%[/TD]
[TD](0.03%)[/TD]
[TD](3.80%)[/TD]
[TD](3.04%)[/TD]
[TD](2.60%)[/TD]
[TD](3.80%)[/TD]
[TD](3.04%)[/TD]
[TD](3.04%)[/TD]
[TD](0.03%)[/TD]
[TD](3.80%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Oct[/TD]
[TD]0.06%[/TD]
[TD](0.42%)[/TD]
[TD](2.66%)[/TD]
[TD]0.50%[/TD]
[TD](3.97%)[/TD]
[TD](0.42%)[/TD]
[TD](0.42%)[/TD]
[TD](0.42%)[/TD]
[TD](0.42%)[/TD]
[TD](0.42%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Nov[/TD]
[TD]0.07%[/TD]
[TD]0.99%[/TD]
[TD]10.95%[/TD]
[TD]18.26%[/TD]
[TD]15.54%[/TD]
[TD]18.26%[/TD]
[TD]18.26%[/TD]
[TD]18.26%[/TD]
[TD]18.26%[/TD]
[TD]18.26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Dec[/TD]
[TD]0.07%[/TD]
[TD]0.14%[/TD]
[TD]3.84%[/TD]
[TD]7.24%[/TD]
[TD]4.64%[/TD]
[TD]7.24%[/TD]
[TD]7.24%[/TD]
[TD]7.24%[/TD]
[TD]7.24%[/TD]
[TD]7.24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #9AFF9A"]
[TD]YTD[/TD]
[TD]0.97%[/TD]
[TD]7.50%[/TD]
[TD]18.31%[/TD]
[TD]31.85%[/TD]
[TD]8.17%[/TD]
[TD]48.48%[/TD]
[TD]49.65%[/TD]
[TD]57.95%[/TD]
[TD]26.51%[/TD]
[TD]51.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

All of our methods did real well this year. They protected us from the big drop in March and gave us better results than buy and hold.

 

[Cactus]

Here is the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over 3, 5 and 10 years.

[TD="bgcolor: #969696, align: left"] Annualized Return [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #969696, align: center"] G [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #969696, align: center"] F [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #969696, align: center"] C [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #969696, align: center"] S [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #969696, align: center"] I [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #969696, align: center"] LMBF-1 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #969696, align: center"] C>S [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #969696, align: center"] CI>S [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #969696, align: center"] SIM [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #969696, align: center"] G>F [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #C0C0C0, align: left"] 3 Year (2018 – 2020) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.03% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 5.38% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 14.13% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 15.25% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 4.68% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 10.13% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 8.85% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 13.15% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 10.64% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 11.04% [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #C0C0C0, align: left"] 5 Year (2016 – 2020) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.05% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 4.57% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 15.20% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 16.06% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 7.99% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 12.34% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 11.39% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 13.13% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 11.97% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 12.61% [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #C0C0C0, align: left"] 10 Year (2011 – 2020) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.04% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 4.07% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 13.90% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 13.32% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 5.87% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 8.66% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 9.43% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 11.31% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 10.07% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 9.39% [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]

All our methods did real well this year. If you average that over years though, buy and holding the C and/or S Funds produced better returns over time.

 

[Awashbu12]

Hello, been following this thread for a few months, and I have been trying to figure out why the last post is on here is true, and none of the various LMBF plans do as well as buy and hold over the long term.. I was thinking maybe there is a way to track the funds on a more detailed scale when the LMBF keeps us in the same fund for multiple months..

I was wondering if anyone has thought of trying to track the Best fund on a weekly basis when we spend multiple months in the same fund?


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[Cactus]

You can basically think of these methods as following a ~20 day moving average with changes set to go in to affect for the next month. There are other moving averages posted around the forum. Check out Ravesfan's thread: https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/19774-ravensfans-account-talk.html. He usually gives us the 15 & 60 day best and worst funds.

The problem with any of these methods is that they follow a trend that may not sync well with what the market is doing at any particular time. The market can stay on a trend for months or it can swing wildly daily or anything in between. At worst your method can be perfectly out of sync with the market. There have be months where the LMBF methods were in the market for a big loss followed by a month in the G Fund when the market recovered.

I'm afraid you will find that switching to a weekly trend will produce wilder swings and less gain not to mention we are only allowed 2 IFTs a month. You can look at the early posts of this thread to see people have tried shorter trends and the results weren't any more favorable. Finally be aware that all this analysis is hindsight. You can't go back and change what you should have done and changing it now frequently doesn't align with the current trend in the market if any.

Whatever system you choose to use, you should check out the performance over several years. Anyone can have a good year like the LMBF methods did last year, but it is the accumulation over years that counts for our retirement.

 

[Cactus]

Here is the monthly return as of 1/28/2021:

[TABLE="class: cms_table, width: 450"]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFEC8B"]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #9AFF9A"]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEC8B"]28-Jan-2021[/TD]
[TD]0.06%[/TD]
[TD](0.62%)[/TD]
[TD]0.92%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #9ACD32"]4.38%[/TD]
[TD]0.56%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S Fund is the winner once again, so all our methods stay in the S Fund for another month.

 

[Cactus]

Here is the monthly return as of 2/25/2021:

[TABLE="width: 0"]
[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25-Feb-2021[/TD]
[TD]0.07%[/TD]
[TD](2.26%)[/TD]
[TD]3.24%[/TD]
[TD]4.83%[/TD]
[TD]3.87%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S Fund is the winner once again, so all our methods stay in the S Fund for another month.

 

[Cactus]

Here is the monthly return as of 3/30/2021:

[TABLE="width: 0"]
[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-Mar-2021[/TD]
[TD]0.11%[/TD]
[TD](1.22%)[/TD]
[TD]3.99% [/TD]
[TD](1.63%)[/TD]
[TD]2.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The C Fund is the winner for Mar so the following IFTs take place before noon today, 31-Mar-2021.

•LMBF-1 Changes from the S Fund to the C Fund
•LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the S Fund to the C Fund
•LMBF-1 C>S Remains in the S Fund
•LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
•LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the S Fund to the C Fund

 

[Cactus]

Here is the monthly return as of 4/29/2021:

[TABLE="width: 0"]
[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29-Apr-2021[/TD]
[TD]0.13%[/TD]
[TD]0.73%[/TD]
[TD]6.09%[/TD]
[TD]5.42%[/TD]
[TD]4.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The C Fund is the winner for Apr so the following IFTs take place before noon today, 30-Apr-2021.

•LMBF-1 Remains in the C Fund
•LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the C Fund to the F Fund until November
•LMBF-1 C>S Remains in the S Fund
•LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
•LMBF-1 G>F Remains in the C Fund

 

[mmk119]

Hey Cactus. I haven't "visited" the post in a while. wanted to say hello to everyone and wish you all well.

 

[Cactus]

Looks like the I Fund is the winner for May so the following IFTs take place before noon tomorrow, 28-May-2021.

•LMBF-1 Changes from the C Fund to the I Fund
•LMBF-1 SIM Remains in the F Fund until November
•LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the C Fund to the I Fund
•LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
•LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the C Fund to the I Fund

 

[Awashbu12]

Not gonna lie, I have never gone into the i fund.. it seems so volatile to me. I am making the switch, cause I wanna follow LMBF-1 this year, but I am really nervous about putting my money in it.

 

[mmk119]

For all my TSP friends, acquaintances, and fellow investors; I would like to thank you all for you posts and wish you all a safe and happy holiday weekend. Remember what this holiday is all about. But also, remember it is one of the two most dangerous holiday weekends of the year. Please be safe. Thank you for all those who have sacrificed for us to be here today.

 

[Cactus]

Looks like the S Fund is the winner for June so the following IFTs take place before noon tomorrow, 30-Jun-2021.

•LMBF-1 Changes from the I Fund to the S Fund
•LMBF-1 SIM Remains in the F Fund until November
•LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the I Fund to the S Fund
•LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
•LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the I Fund to the S Fund

 

[James48843]

I continue to be impressed by the positive results from Last Month’s Best Fund (LMBF)method, as well as its various derivatives. I think I first heard about it from McDuck, if I’m not mistaken, and it’s done very,very well over the longer term.

Thank you to those who
Monitor and track. I believe I am much better for having learned to watch and track that system.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums