Alternate LMBF methods

[Hallatauer]

So as we approach the end of the month... looks like the I fund is the move to make for May. Prepared to transfer early next week.

 

[Cactus]

Yes, with the lead the I Fund has right now it looks like LMBF-1 will be going into I on Tuesday. We will have to see the closing prices Monday night to be sure, but it would take quite a one-day-change to upset this trend.

Looks like our S Fund is the big loser this month. So much for April being the 2nd best month for the market. Oh well, the question you have to ask yourself now is are you going to stick with the traditional LMBF/LMBF-1 or try ILoveTD's seasonal variant where you Sell-In-May and walk away. ILoveTD automatically has you in the F Fund from May through October and in LMBF the other months. I will track that here as LMBF-1SIM, but probably won't use it myself. It should be interesting to see the difference this summer.

 

[JTH]

Yes, with the lead the I Fund has right now it looks like LMBF-1 will be going into I on Tuesday. We will have to see the closing prices Monday night to be sure, but it would take quite a one-day-change to upset this trend.

Looks like our S Fund is the big loser this month. So much for April being the 2nd best month for the market. Oh well, the question you have to ask yourself now is are you going to stick with the traditional LMBF/LMBF-1 or try ILoveTD's seasonal variant where you Sell-In-May and walk away. ILoveTD automatically has you in the F Fund from May through October and in LMBF the other months. I will track that here as LMBF-1SIM, but probably won't use it myself. It should be interesting to see the difference this summer.

I'd hardly call the S-Fund's -.72% being the big loser and we still have 2 days to go.

 

[Cactus]

Sorry about that. I didn't mean to imply that the S Fund had lost a large amount, only that our chosen Fund for April had come in last place. At least so far.

 

[JTH]

Sorry about that. I didn't mean to imply that the S Fund had lost a large amount, only that our chosen Fund for April had come in last place. At least so far.

Nothing to be sorry about my friend, it's no secret I have a personal bias towards the S-Fund and equally against the I-Fund (within Europe's current situation.) May is a tricky Month to play all in all the LMBF system isn't something that strikes my fancy, but the long-term circuit protection it provides does have its advantages.

 

[Cactus]

Here are the monthly returns as of 4/29/13.

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] Date [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] G FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] F FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] C FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] S FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] I FUND [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] 29-Apr-2013 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]0.12% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]1.04% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]1.67% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]0.00% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CC00, align: right"]4.60% [/TD]

The best fund is I so LMBF-1 goes into the I Fund by noon eastern tomorrow. This is also the time where the seasonal varaiant branches off. LMBF-1SIM goes into the F Fund and stays there through October, syncing back up with LMBF-1 in November.

 

[PLANO]

Thanks Cactus, do you know if anyone has crunched the numbers using the seasonal adjustment?

 

[Cactus]

Yes. Here are the first numbers ILoveTDs ran against LMBF: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-te...-best-fund-method-strategy-30.html#post388869. And here are the numbers I ran against LMBF-1: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-term-fund-strategies/15018-alternate-lmbf-methods-3.html#post399058. I wasn't too excited about the results compared to LMBF-1C>S (substituting S for C). You can see the seasonal adjustment introduces a lot more yearly volatility in a method that already jumps around quite a bit month-to-month.

I will be posting the results here for the seasonal variant to see how this looks real time. Posting back-tested results on historical data is one thing; being invested in it in our continuing bull market is quite another.

If you are considering following this method, I would suggest you read JTH's recent blog on seasonallity here: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/jth/2409-trading-stats-month-may-2013.html. I found it quite good.

 

[ILoveTDs]

Thanks for tracking these Cactus

 

[jonfresno]

Hi Cactus. Thanks for crunching these numbers. Really cool stuff. Love the thread.

Question along the lines of C--> S. What do you think about C or I --> S? I would think there isn't much correlation since it's a different "market", but, I guess I'm askin' if you have a chance and it's not too difficult, can you try it?

Thanks!

 

[Cactus]

Hello, Jonfresno.

Interesting idea to have all equities be an indicator for the S Fund. I'm not the only one who's been burned by the I Fund and FV, so why not avoid it altogether. Well, with C>S we saw a clear advantage in that S followed C as the best Fund 2 out of 3 times. This isn't the case with the I Fund, though. Here is the count of the number of times each fund followed the I Fund.



As you can see, S has the most but they are all about equal. So I wouldn't expect much of a correlation.

It's easy enough to substitute one fund's return for another though, so let's run the numbers for CI>S and compare it to C>S. The results should be listed in the two tables below:

Table 1: LMBF-1 C > S


Table2:LMBF-1 CI > S

Note: The olive gray blocks indicate that months where the S Fund was substituted in.

Comparing the two tables it looks like CI>S beat C>S 4 out of 9 years from 2004 - 2012 and so far is in the lead this year. So this looks like a 50:50 split. It's interesting that the 2008 loss wasn't as great and the 2009 recovery was much greater for CI>S. So how do the total returns compare for 2004 - 2012? Here is a table comparing several of the LMBF variants.

Table 3: Total returns for 2004 - 2012


C>S & CI>S are the two variants that scored the best returns so far with returns of 218% & 210% respectively. I'm frankly surprised that CI>S did this well. Maybe it is also worth following for those who are I Fund averse.

Well, CI>S is in the lead for 2013, but then it's been in the S Fund all year and the S Fund is in the lead. Check out the monthly returns through April in the table below:

Table 4: 2013 Monthly returns


Holding the S and/or C Fund has definetly been the way to go so far this year and CI>S is right along with them. Is that what got you interested in this variant to begin with? I wouldn't put too much stock in that. It will change eventually.

Also of note is that LMBF took the lead from LMBF-1 in April. Of course that changed again after the 1st trading day of May. These type of systems do jump around a lot. It just goes to show you that you can't declare a winner until the end.

 

[jonfresno]

Wow, thanks, you're a wiz with this stuff!

No real reason went into my thinking other than just using the three funds to trigger whether to go into the S fund and seeing what popped out. You know, "what happens if you do this...". If I can stomach staying in the markert at this high level, I've got a 50/50 split of S & I, sort of using the C/I-->S in a wimpy way.

As a new guy, this site is just great. So many different strategies to use. I think I'd like to use the LMBF-1 C -->S, but it's tough, my emotions pull me out of the market after a couple % run-up worrying about a major correction.

You know, I see that there's premium offers, but after seeing these options (LMBF & variations), and not to mention just picking a member who tends to do pretty darned well year after year, like ContrarianJeff, why would you pay? So many good minds to copy!

 

[Cactus]

You have plenty of options on this site. Some people are better suited to one method over another. For me, I think I'm better suited to following trends than trying to time the market. I also need a system that operates on a weekly to monthly time frame like our Sentiment Survey or one of the LMBF methods. I just don't have time to follow it every day or hourly like some folks on this site.

I'd encourage you to look around here, read what others are doing, and find a system you feel comfortable with and can stick to. The most important aspect of any system is that it take the emotions out of it. The market is geared to use your emotions against you and take your money. This year has not been a good example so far. It's just been up, up, up. That's not typical. Look at the monthly returns on the tables I posted. Some of them have rather large red numbers even in years that turned out good. Can you follow a system like this when the market does that to you? If not, you need to find something else.

Many people on this site use a combination of existing systems to build their own method. Don't be afraid to change and try someting new. It's all a learning experience. You just need to give it time to work.

 

[James48843]

.... It just goes to show you that you can't declare a winner until the end.

See, that's the beauty. It NEVER ends.

It just goes on, and on, and on, and on.

Month after month after month.

It never ends ....until you do.







The end.

 

[Cactus]

Here are the monthly returns as of 5/30/13.

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] Date [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] G FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] F FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] C FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] S FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] I FUND [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] 30-May-2013 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]0.11%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (1.62%) [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CC00, align: right"]3.83%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]3.78%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (1.14%) [/TD]

The best fund is C, so the following IFTs take place before noon eastern tomorrow, 5/31/13:

• LMBF-1 : changes from the I Fund to the C Fund
• LMBF-1 SIM : remains in the F Fund through October
• LMBF-1 C>S : changes from the I Fund to the S Fund
• LMBF-1 CI>S : remains in the S Fund

Note that the monthly returns for the C & S Funds are real close, so tomorrow’s results could push LMBF into a different fund than LMBF-1 since LMBF decides a day later. This does happen occasionally, though it’s not that common. The last time they diverged was in Jan 2011.

 

[Cactus]

Here are the results through May 31, 2013 and as you can see, we are starting to see more differentiation between the LMBF-1 variants.

[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]G[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]F[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]C[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]I[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMBF[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMBF-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]C>S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]CI>S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]SIM[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](0.56%)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.96%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.96%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Feb[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.51%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](0.99%)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.66%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.07%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.57%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Apr[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.93%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.32%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.27%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]May[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](1.78%)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.34%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](3.12%)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](4.67%)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](3.12%)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](3.12%)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](1.78%)[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: left"]YTD[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]0.62%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"](0.76%)[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]15.38%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]16.91%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]6.46%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]5.13%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]6.72%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]7.69%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]16.91%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]8.20%[/TD]

The Buy-and-Hold crowd are still firmly in the lead. Holding S and/or C Funds has been the most profitable so far this year. Will this continue? I don't know. Volatility has started to pick at the end of May.

LMBF, LMBF-1, and C>S all took a significant loss in May by being fully invested in the I Fund which had the worst return of our 5 Funds. LMBF is on the TSPTalk AutoTracker and was in the top quintile (top 20%) for the 1st quarter of 2013. It has now fallen to the middle of the pack being at #585 out of 1104.

An interesting sidenote is that LMBF & LMBF-1 will be going into different Funds in June so we should be seeing even more differentiation between these two Methods. LMBF-1 has IFTed into the C Fund and LMBF should IFT into the S Fund by noon eastern Monday. This doesn't happen often, but when two funds are as close as the C & S Fund were on May 30 (only 0.05% difference) they can easily swap positions the next day.

The big surprize came with the SIM Method. It is invested in the F Fund which has been loosing money all month while the equity funds were going up. I felt sorry for those in the Sell-In-May crowd because it didn't seem to work this year. Well surprize, surprize. Come the end of the month, it didn't loose as much as the I Fund, so it is now better off than LMBF, LMBF-1, or C>S. That being the whole intent of this method, it did work for May!

Finally, we have CI>S. It is the clear winner of all the LMBF-1 variants to date. That is because it's been in the S Fund all year so it is, in effect, emmulating Buy-and-Hold so far. I have been asked to continue to post the IFTs for this method, so I will be doing that as well as analyzing it here. That will become more interesting when it leaves the S Fund.

On final note for those of you who feel bad about how much we lost this month. This is a monthly Set-It-And-Forget-It type plan and they do jump around a lot month to month. Take a look at the tables I published at the beginning of this thread and you can see it does produce months with large losses even in years that turned out rather well. If you can't handle that, these methods are not for you and you should probably look at something else. What ever you do, don't base your decision on emotion. That <b>doesn't</b> work. I can vouch for that.

 

[Cactus]

Here are the monthly returns as of 6/27/13.

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] Date [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] G FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] F FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] C FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] S FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] I FUND [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] 27-Jun-2013 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CC00, align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (1.68%)
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (0.92%) [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (0.81%) [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (2.28%) [/TD]

The best fund is G, so the following IFTs take place before noon eastern tomorrow, 6/28/13:

• LMBF-1 : changes from the C Fund to the G Fund
• LMBF-1 SIM : remains in the F Fund through October
• LMBF-1 C>S : changes from the S Fund to the G Fund
• LMBF-1 CI>S : changes from the S Fund to the G Fund

Note that the G Fund was the only fund that was positive for June. Even the F Fund showed a loss. LMBF-1 SIM is hardcoded to the F Fund from May through October so it stays in the F Fund instead of joining the rest in the G Fund.

Also note that if we have another rally day tomorrow like we had today LMBF could end up in the C or S Fund instead of joining the LMBF-1 variants in the G Fund. That would be the second month in a row of divergence. We will have to wait and see what tomorrow brings.

 

[Cactus]

Well, it's the end of the 2nd quarter and time to see how our funds have done again. Here are the results through Jun 28, 2013 and as you can see we have some more losses.

[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]G[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]F[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]C[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]I[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMBF[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMBF-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]C>S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]CI>S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]SIM[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.56%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.96%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.96%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Feb[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.51%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.66%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.07%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.57%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Apr[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.93%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.32%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.27%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]May[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.78%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.34%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (4.67%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.78%) [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jun[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.53%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.34%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.77%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.79%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.34%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.53%) [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: left"]YTD[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]0.76%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (2.28%) [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]13.83%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]15.75%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]3.51%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]4.29%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]5.29%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]6.62%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]15.75%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]6.55%[/TD]

There is no way around it, June was a bad month. Everything but the G Fund lost money. OK, but for most of the LMBF variants this makes two months in a row. Whats up with that? Well, if we look at the tables I posted at the start of this thread, http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-term-fund-strategies/15018-alternate-lmbf-methods-5.html#post391621, we see that it does happen. LMBF had equivalent or worse losses in the same two months in 2010 & 2011 and still managed to end each year up better than 12%. :blink: That's way better than my track record; I can tell you that. These methods jump around a lot and they currently happen to be on the down side. Looking to the up side, all of them except SIM have moved to the G Fund, so they can't have losses for 3 months in a row.

So, that being the case, how do the different methods compare to each other now? I'm going to sound like a broken record, but things haven't changed much. The Buy-and-Hold crowd are still firmly in the lead. Holding S and/or C Funds has been the most profitable so far this year. On the other hand, any of the LMBF methods would come in third beating the G, F and I Funds.

LMBF-1 lost more than LMBF in June, closing the difference to only 1%. This was primarily due to them being invested in different funds this time round and LMBF-1 choosing the worse fund (C vs. S).

C>S also outperformed LMBF-1 by being in the S Fund and not losing as much. It's ironic that the C>S variant of LMBF-1 was originally intended to produce superior returns on the up side, but here it also produced a superior return on the downside. Is that a fluke? It bears investigation to see how often that happens. The argument has always been you can earn more with S over C on the way up but you also lose more on the way down.

SIM had the biggest disappointment among the variants. It lost more than the rest in June and has now fallen below C>S. The F Fund has not been kind to it this summer. On a positive note it is still above LMBF & LMBF-1 for the year, so I guess you have to say it's still working according to its original purpose.

CI>S is still the clear winner of all the LMBF-1 variants to date by having been in the S Fund all year. It's grip on the S Fund has come to an end, though, as next month it will join all the others, except SIM, in the G Fund. So one way or another CI>S will diverge from the S Fund next month. We will have to wait until then to see which comes out ahead.

 

[Hallatauer]

As we approach the end of the month,and unless there is a drastic change, the S fund is looking like the winner. We missed out on the S funds gains for July unfortunately but there are gonna be flops like this occasionally. Since this is a long term strategy, these tend to fall by the wayside over time. At least being in the G fund no losses were incurred.

 

[Cactus]

Thanks for posting, Hallatauer. You're right that we didn't lose anything in the G Fund for July, but the way I look at it, we also didn't recoup our losses from May & June. That really hurts right now. You've followed this system for a while, is it often like this? I'm wondering specifically if the summer months tend to jerk us around like this and mess us up emotionally. I gotta neutralize those emotions. They're telling me the run up is over and there is nothing left in the S Fund for August. That's exactly the thing that kept me out of the S Fund in February so I missed out on another 1% gain.