Allocations Reflect Bearish Sentiment

At the close Friday, the S&P 500 and DOW logged their seventh weekly loss out of the last eight weeks (-0.24% and -0.58% respectively). But the Nasdaq and the Russel 2000 logged robust gains of 1.39% and 2.05%.

Is that bullish or bearish?

If our sentiment is any indication it must have been bearish as our sentiment survey remained in a buy condition for the fourth straight week. And our stock allocation agrees with our sentiment as shown on this week's charts:

2011 Fund Allocation ~ Top 50 Chart 3.jpg
2011 Cash-Stock Exp ~ Top 50 Chart 1.jpg

The Top 50 dropped their stock allocations going into next week by a sizable 9.4%. This group now has a collective 49% of their allocation spread between the G and F funds. Their stock allocation is down to 51%.

That's notable as this group is very close to having more cash and bonds than stocks.

Total Fund Allocation Chart 3.jpg
2011 Cash-Stock Total Exp Chart 1.jpg

The herd (the entire tracker) also dropped their collective stock allocation, although their allocation is much higher at about 59%.

So where's the market going? If 7 of 8 down weeks for the S&P 500 and the DOW is bearish, than what do we make of those gains in the Nasdaq and Russel 2000?

Small caps and technology lead the market, right? So this ought to be a very interesting week given those numbers. My guess remains higher prices by the end of this week.
 
I'm looking forward to seeing the allocation distribution this week since the flow is mostly in one direction. I think there is at least a loose relationship between auto tracker participants and the sentiment of the overall investing world...so what will the new sentiment lead to?
 
It looks like the survey will show a much higher bullish percentage for next week. I'm not sure everyone is buying it though. Some have been selling. Like me. :D

MrBowl;bt3487 said:
I'm looking forward to seeing the allocation distribution this week since the flow is mostly in one direction. I think there is at least a loose relationship between auto tracker participants and the sentiment of the overall investing world...so what will the new sentiment lead to?
 
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