I'll be the first to admit I'm not a bond guy, but I do like to watch the price action in AGG. Sometimes when you're watching AGG's action, you can get a good feel for what is happening in stocks and over the last few trading days AGG's volume has been on the low side. Perhaps this tells us the true interest lies in stocks?
Here is an hourly AGG chart with some trend lines thrown in. Our most recent swing high of 104.47 bounced off the top of the trading channel and appears to be headed back down to test the middle trend line.
Now let's zoom in on that same chart, add a bollinger band, and highlight in white 104 as a key point in resistance. We started the month with a gap down from around 104, then tested 104 two more times, then trickled down only to gap up and test 104 again on the 10th.
Having fallen from our most recent swing high, we are trading sideways at 104 again. So my question is do we go down to fill the gap from September 9th? Or do we skirt along the bottom of the bollinger band untill we hit the bottom of the trading channel? Or perhaps we do both?
Here we have a Daily volume chart of AGG with a 20EMA yellow line to serve as a trending indicator. I've drawn in a white line from the 20EMA's last swing high peak, to the most recent swing high peak.
What this is telling me is AGG's volume has been on an overall decline since the first week of May.
Now let's compare the decline in volume, to the rise in AGG's price action. My feeling is, when volume starts to poor back in, this could serve as a top for AGG.
Speaking of of AGG and toppy. Back on 2 September Bullitt pointed out he thought things looked toppy, and until proven otherwise I'd have to agree.
On the weekly chart, the white line represents our most recent swing high. From Feb 08 to Jan 09 we've had 4 failed attempts in this area. We are now in our 6th attempt, so I am watching and waiting to see what happens next.
Cheers... JTH
Here is an hourly AGG chart with some trend lines thrown in. Our most recent swing high of 104.47 bounced off the top of the trading channel and appears to be headed back down to test the middle trend line.
Now let's zoom in on that same chart, add a bollinger band, and highlight in white 104 as a key point in resistance. We started the month with a gap down from around 104, then tested 104 two more times, then trickled down only to gap up and test 104 again on the 10th.
Having fallen from our most recent swing high, we are trading sideways at 104 again. So my question is do we go down to fill the gap from September 9th? Or do we skirt along the bottom of the bollinger band untill we hit the bottom of the trading channel? Or perhaps we do both?
Here we have a Daily volume chart of AGG with a 20EMA yellow line to serve as a trending indicator. I've drawn in a white line from the 20EMA's last swing high peak, to the most recent swing high peak.
What this is telling me is AGG's volume has been on an overall decline since the first week of May.
Now let's compare the decline in volume, to the rise in AGG's price action. My feeling is, when volume starts to poor back in, this could serve as a top for AGG.
Speaking of of AGG and toppy. Back on 2 September Bullitt pointed out he thought things looked toppy, and until proven otherwise I'd have to agree.
On the weekly chart, the white line represents our most recent swing high. From Feb 08 to Jan 09 we've had 4 failed attempts in this area. We are now in our 6th attempt, so I am watching and waiting to see what happens next.
Cheers... JTH
