The stocks market took a break from its 4-day rally and pulled back a bit on Thursday. The indices opened slightly lower but a mid-afternoon $200 billion China tariff comment from President Trump quickly pushed back the dip buying attempts. The Dow ended the day down a modest 138-points, and the losses were fairly broad, although nothing too serious.
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So the trade talk continues to giveth and taketh away depending on which way the wind is blowing. The negotiations with Mexico went well earlier in the week and stocks rallied. This time the China tariffs put pressure on the market, and the light volume trading magnified the move.
The losses yesterday merely erased some of Wednesday's gains so it was just a small dent in the recent rally, but the question is whether the upside momentum is waning, or if this is some of that pre-holiday reversal action that we've been expecting?
It's been a tough week to navigate and we did a lot of analysis in Thursday's commentary, so I will be brief today. We have a long holiday weekend ahead of us and I am looking forward to forgetting about the market for a few days.
From www.tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, September 3 in observance of the Labor Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (September 3) will be processed Tuesday night (September 4), at Tuesday's closing share prices."
The S&P 500 / C-fund pulled back and is testing the old resistance line again. I had suggested in the prior commentary that this mini-breakout could be the pre-holiday games that sometimes get played, but of course we won't know until we see what happened after the holiday. A strong market should hold at that line but those opens gaps are still a draw and there's one down by 2875.
The Dow Transportation Index pulled back and has been stuck in that 11,300 - 11,500 range for several days, and is now testing some key support.
The AGG (bonds) was up and has found at least short-term support at the May and July highs, but it remains in that larger rising wedge formation, which is generally bearish.
The September seasonality chart is another ugly one, but we know that didn't stop August from doing quite well. But here it is. It's officially the worst month returns-wise, over the last 60+ years.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It's that time of year again... time for the annual Last Man Standing NFL Contest. It's free.
More Information: Last Man Standing Contest
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/site-news-and-announcements/30639-last-man-standing-2018-a.html
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. Check out Thursday's commentary for more in-depth analysis on the current situation, in case you missed it.
Have a great holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
So the trade talk continues to giveth and taketh away depending on which way the wind is blowing. The negotiations with Mexico went well earlier in the week and stocks rallied. This time the China tariffs put pressure on the market, and the light volume trading magnified the move.
The losses yesterday merely erased some of Wednesday's gains so it was just a small dent in the recent rally, but the question is whether the upside momentum is waning, or if this is some of that pre-holiday reversal action that we've been expecting?
It's been a tough week to navigate and we did a lot of analysis in Thursday's commentary, so I will be brief today. We have a long holiday weekend ahead of us and I am looking forward to forgetting about the market for a few days.
From www.tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, September 3 in observance of the Labor Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (September 3) will be processed Tuesday night (September 4), at Tuesday's closing share prices."
The S&P 500 / C-fund pulled back and is testing the old resistance line again. I had suggested in the prior commentary that this mini-breakout could be the pre-holiday games that sometimes get played, but of course we won't know until we see what happened after the holiday. A strong market should hold at that line but those opens gaps are still a draw and there's one down by 2875.
The Dow Transportation Index pulled back and has been stuck in that 11,300 - 11,500 range for several days, and is now testing some key support.
The AGG (bonds) was up and has found at least short-term support at the May and July highs, but it remains in that larger rising wedge formation, which is generally bearish.
The September seasonality chart is another ugly one, but we know that didn't stop August from doing quite well. But here it is. It's officially the worst month returns-wise, over the last 60+ years.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It's that time of year again... time for the annual Last Man Standing NFL Contest. It's free.
More Information: Last Man Standing Contest
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/site-news-and-announcements/30639-last-man-standing-2018-a.html
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. Check out Thursday's commentary for more in-depth analysis on the current situation, in case you missed it.
Have a great holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
