Stocks were down yesterday with the Dow ending the day down 94-points. We did break a trend of weak closes as stocks actually rallied into the close on Tuesday taking the indices well off their lows. Bonds were up, the dollar was down, and we saw a spike in oil prices.
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[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 163"]
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[TD="width: 83, align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.0063%[/TD]
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[TD="width: 83, align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.08%[/TD]
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[TD="width: 83, align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.31%[/TD]
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[TD="width: 83, align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.42%[/TD]
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[TD="width: 83, align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.69%[/TD]
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The S&P 500 (SPY) fell to the 20-day EMA and found some support there. The rising wedge has clearly broken but the next test for any kind of measurable pullback would be a break of that 20-day EMA. It held twice in November, where the rally resumed both times.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps lost about a half of a percent but it is also holding above the 20-day EMA. Nothing wrong here yet.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index broke below its recent rising wedge, and like the other indices, tested and held above the 20-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The NYSE overbought / oversold indicator is back on the oversold side, but just barely. The series of higher lows on this chart could mean a rebound is coming. That is if we don't see a breakdown from that 4-month trend, which is possible since we are also seeing lower highs on the overbought side of the indicator.
This chart was brought to my attention in the Forum by one of our members (MrJohnRoss). It compares the current action in the Dow with that of the action leading up to the 1929 crash. I enjoy stuff like this, but I won't comment. You can read about it in the link below the chart.
Source: 1929 Analog - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial
Bonds moved up slightly yesterday with the help of the weakness in the dollar. We still have some poor formations on these bond charts so the surprise move here would be a move to the upside.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This Friday we get the November jobs report. Estimates are looking for approximately 200,000 new jobs being created, and an unemployment rate of 7.2%. What do you think? We have our monthly jobs report contest going on in the Forum.
In today's TSP Talk Plus Report we take at the overbought / oversold indicator, the Rydex fund ratios, the dollar and recent change in the price of oil. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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