03/20/26
The bears were in control for most of the day on Thursday, but an afternoon decline in the price of oil led to a late rally in stocks. The big three indices were down, but the small caps ended the day with a solid gain. The charts are trying to hold in key support areas but the bears are still holding onto the momentum.
The S&P 500 actually went positive after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to the media about working with the US to try to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil fell sharply and while there are a lot of technical and sentiment type indicators suggesting we could see some relief, it is really the dance between oil and the stock market that matters most right now. It reminded us how quickly things could change if the right headline comes along.
Oil vs. the S&P 500. USO is an Oil ETF.
Here is the chart of oil itself, and while it was down modestly, it is still sitting near the recent closing highs and causing concerns.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) fell below its 200-day average during intraday trading on Thursday, pushed briefly into positive territory in late trading, but eventually closed down 0.27%, but that was good enough to keep it above the 200-day average on a closing basis. In the process of yesterday's decline, the open gap from November was filled, and the index closed within the gap.
I don't want to get too predictive because in the short-term everything could turn on a dime if the geopolitical events shift, or they could get worse as we digest the headlines that are coming out.
The 10-year Treasury Yield temporarily broke out above the recent highs over 4.3% but once oil started to pullback, so did the yield. The right shoulder may need more time to churn before we see an eventual breakout or breakdown. The left shoulder took 3-weeks to form. Still, the inverted head and shoulders patterns are suggesting yields may be going higher eventual, but if oil calms down, that could change.
The dollar fell sharply and that helped the I-fund recover some early losses - although lately the I-fund's price has been difficult to predict on a day to day basis, and the TSP has had to make a lot of adjustments. The ACWX was down just 0.19%.
So whether you are a basketball fan or a market timer, March Madness has been fun to watch. It's back to basketball for me.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) posted a modest gain but more importantly it managed to close back above its 200-day average. I don't know if we've seen the lows in this chart, considering the head an shoulders pattern, but if it is going to hold, this would be a good place. The 2425 area has now held four times.
ACWX (I-fund) filled a gap from the first trading day of the year, and rebounded, closing with a modest loss, and well off the lows. However, now that the 100-day average (orange) has broken, it may try to act as resistance.
BND (bonds / F-fund) managed a small gain after a weak open, and recapturing the bottom of its channel is bullish, but clearly the short-term trend is down for bonds.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The bears were in control for most of the day on Thursday, but an afternoon decline in the price of oil led to a late rally in stocks. The big three indices were down, but the small caps ended the day with a solid gain. The charts are trying to hold in key support areas but the bears are still holding onto the momentum.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
The S&P 500 actually went positive after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to the media about working with the US to try to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil fell sharply and while there are a lot of technical and sentiment type indicators suggesting we could see some relief, it is really the dance between oil and the stock market that matters most right now. It reminded us how quickly things could change if the right headline comes along.
Oil vs. the S&P 500. USO is an Oil ETF.
Here is the chart of oil itself, and while it was down modestly, it is still sitting near the recent closing highs and causing concerns.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) fell below its 200-day average during intraday trading on Thursday, pushed briefly into positive territory in late trading, but eventually closed down 0.27%, but that was good enough to keep it above the 200-day average on a closing basis. In the process of yesterday's decline, the open gap from November was filled, and the index closed within the gap.
I don't want to get too predictive because in the short-term everything could turn on a dime if the geopolitical events shift, or they could get worse as we digest the headlines that are coming out.
The 10-year Treasury Yield temporarily broke out above the recent highs over 4.3% but once oil started to pullback, so did the yield. The right shoulder may need more time to churn before we see an eventual breakout or breakdown. The left shoulder took 3-weeks to form. Still, the inverted head and shoulders patterns are suggesting yields may be going higher eventual, but if oil calms down, that could change.
The dollar fell sharply and that helped the I-fund recover some early losses - although lately the I-fund's price has been difficult to predict on a day to day basis, and the TSP has had to make a lot of adjustments. The ACWX was down just 0.19%.
So whether you are a basketball fan or a market timer, March Madness has been fun to watch. It's back to basketball for me.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) posted a modest gain but more importantly it managed to close back above its 200-day average. I don't know if we've seen the lows in this chart, considering the head an shoulders pattern, but if it is going to hold, this would be a good place. The 2425 area has now held four times.
ACWX (I-fund) filled a gap from the first trading day of the year, and rebounded, closing with a modest loss, and well off the lows. However, now that the 100-day average (orange) has broken, it may try to act as resistance.
BND (bonds / F-fund) managed a small gain after a weak open, and recapturing the bottom of its channel is bullish, but clearly the short-term trend is down for bonds.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
