06/09/25
The main story on Friday was the better than expected jobs report, and it sent the stock market higher despite some negative revisions to prior reports. Most of the US indices gained 1% or more. The dollar rallied on the strong data and that held the I-fund back, but it still closed with a moderate gain on the day. Bonds fell sharply as yields move up.
I am still on my mini vacation and will be back in my office by Tuesday morning. Thanks for your patience with the brief reports.
Both the stock and bond markets reacted as if the jobs report was strong economic data, and on the surface it was, but as I have complained about for the last couple of years, the pattern of negative revisions to prior reports continues, and that made this overall data less appealing.
While the May jobs report beat estimates by about 10,000 jobs, the April report was revised down 12,000, and the March report was revised down by a whopping 65,000 jobs. To me this sound like a big net loss. However the BLS figures these numbers out, maybe it's time that they delay the release of the numbers until they have a better grip on the data.
That said, I always say that the market is usually doing its thing despite the noise of these types of reports and it is looking for an excuse to get to where it was heading, and the news is just making the trip a little more bumpy, and in Friday's case it took the news as an excuse to keep going higher, just as the charts have been trying to tell us.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) rallied 1% on the day and that was enough to have it close above 6000 for the firs time since February, and that also put it above the resistance line it had been battling for the last several weeks, so the technical action remains positive.
I don't know how the stock market is going to react to the immigration activity in Los Angeles this weekend, but my initial thought, based on recent prior civil unrest, is that it may only be a minor distraction unless it continues to escalate.
Again, I will be back in my office on Tuesday morning so I have one more commentary to do for tomorrow before I will be at my normal setup where I can write a proper report. Thanks so much for your patience!
The DWCPF / S-fund performed as you might expect when the S&P 500 was up 1% and it gained 1.3% on Friday, so I won't post that chart.
The ACWX / I-fund lagged because of the 0.55% rally in the dollar on Friday caused by the better than expected jobs report.
BND / F-fund fell sharply on the jobs report and that makes a third failed breakout on this chart, or at the least the extremes are being sold once this wanders outside of the trading channel that has been dominant for months on this chart.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The main story on Friday was the better than expected jobs report, and it sent the stock market higher despite some negative revisions to prior reports. Most of the US indices gained 1% or more. The dollar rallied on the strong data and that held the I-fund back, but it still closed with a moderate gain on the day. Bonds fell sharply as yields move up.
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I am still on my mini vacation and will be back in my office by Tuesday morning. Thanks for your patience with the brief reports.
Both the stock and bond markets reacted as if the jobs report was strong economic data, and on the surface it was, but as I have complained about for the last couple of years, the pattern of negative revisions to prior reports continues, and that made this overall data less appealing.
While the May jobs report beat estimates by about 10,000 jobs, the April report was revised down 12,000, and the March report was revised down by a whopping 65,000 jobs. To me this sound like a big net loss. However the BLS figures these numbers out, maybe it's time that they delay the release of the numbers until they have a better grip on the data.
That said, I always say that the market is usually doing its thing despite the noise of these types of reports and it is looking for an excuse to get to where it was heading, and the news is just making the trip a little more bumpy, and in Friday's case it took the news as an excuse to keep going higher, just as the charts have been trying to tell us.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) rallied 1% on the day and that was enough to have it close above 6000 for the firs time since February, and that also put it above the resistance line it had been battling for the last several weeks, so the technical action remains positive.
I don't know how the stock market is going to react to the immigration activity in Los Angeles this weekend, but my initial thought, based on recent prior civil unrest, is that it may only be a minor distraction unless it continues to escalate.
Again, I will be back in my office on Tuesday morning so I have one more commentary to do for tomorrow before I will be at my normal setup where I can write a proper report. Thanks so much for your patience!
The DWCPF / S-fund performed as you might expect when the S&P 500 was up 1% and it gained 1.3% on Friday, so I won't post that chart.
The ACWX / I-fund lagged because of the 0.55% rally in the dollar on Friday caused by the better than expected jobs report.
BND / F-fund fell sharply on the jobs report and that makes a third failed breakout on this chart, or at the least the extremes are being sold once this wanders outside of the trading channel that has been dominant for months on this chart.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
