6/4 Jobs Report

[tsptalk]

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I just added this to Friday's comments...
Jobs report came out at 248,000 nonfarm payrolls increase, 23,000 to 33,000 more than estimated. April's was revised to 346,000 from 288,000.

After positive payroll surprises, the market on average had a neutral initial reaction, but was an average of 2.3% lower after 20 days.

Be careful of this initial upward reaction. This is the emotional money reacting right now. Makes me want to jump back in the market myself, but in the past the normal reaction to more than expected jobs is not positive, but negative in the days and weeks ahead (after a neutral initial reaction). Interest rate hike concerns are the reason.

As we have been saying though, investors seem to be looking for any reason to jump back into the market, particularly on dips if they had missed the boat. Just be careful. The Dow was up over 70 near the open. Watch how the morning plays out before acting.

Tom

 

[Pete1]

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When is Greenspan scheduled to speak next? It seems like it should be very close to 20 days from now. Perhaps a big sell off toward mid to end of month in anticipation of interest rate hikes followed by a strong buyback in early July?

 

[Brak]

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What about the I Fund? Japan's market closed prior to the jobs report. The dollar is up and down so far today. Any play there?

 

[tsptalk]

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Pete1 wrote:

When is Greenspan scheduled to speak next? It seems like it should be very close to 20 days from now. Perhaps a big sell off toward mid to end of month in anticipation of interest rate hikes followed by a strong buyback in early July?

June 30. With this jobs report, could a surprise hike be in the works before June 30? Probably not but many think he should act now.

 

[tsptalk]

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G-Man wrote:

What about the I Fund? Japan's market closed prior to the jobs report. The dollar is up and down so far today. Any play there?

My guess is the dollar should rise because of the strengthening of the economy (based on thestrong jobs report). My other guess is that we may not hold these gains today (big guess). To me that says I fund is a bit risky.

Did I mention these were guesses?

 

[tsptalk]

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What I'm hearing is this report was strong but not too strong. Just right?

Well, if the market is going to like this report, I hopewe see something before the deadline. So far we just retraced yesterday's losses. We've stalled at the 1125 area on the S&P 500. A move over 1135 would be a good indication of a breakout.