4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04

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Frizz B.,

You have stumbled onto something BIG, really BIG. By comparing the C to the S fund, and moving your savingsto the fund likely to narrow the gap.When I read that your moves have yielded 6%+ for this year,(while mine are struggeling tostay possitive), I opened up my spreadsheet skills. Here's what I did/found:

I see some problems comparing C with the S fund, because when one goes up or down the other usually does as well. So I calculated out some columns to compare the C,S & I funds to the constant and steady G fund using a % instead of hard numbers (C to S 100 or lower, S to C 115 or higher)

I found that a 13% gain could have been made from Jan02 through April this year.

For example: On Jan 28 and 29th my calcultionsindicated that all three funds indicated a GET IN date
C at 115%, F at 126% and I at 127% over the G fund.
Then get out dates around Feb11th with
C at 118%, F at 129% & I at 130%
Followed by the next get in date of Feb23 with
C at 116% andS at 127%. (Notice a slight upward trend)

I figure in a bull market the range over the G fund will keep increasing, but since March the range is comming back down, for example on Mar24 the C fund was just 111% over the G fund, then increased to 117%by April05, and is currently at 114% over G. -

CJ :^
 
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Hind sight is wonderful when determining when you should have been in or out. Hense the Jan 28 date you referred to, however, we could have had a few more concecutive down days that month meaning that you obviously didn't want to be in on that day..Now don't misunderstand me, no matter what the stock did on that day..the fact of the matter was that the fund/funds had all dropped substantially enough that there was positive opportunity to recover the same ground originally lost and make some positive gains to the medium/norm. I have been doing the same, ie; waiting for the market to take some consecutive hits (bad days) hopefully losing 35-50 cents before getting back in .....timing is difficult....I was up 2.39% for this month but dropped .15% on monday and .75% on Tuesday...With Greenspans comments yesterday and comments again today...I believe I will get into the G and watch for a while. Just need to ride out today before the change takes effect....

Happy trading :dude:
 
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Thanks for the compliment, just remember, this is not a day trader system, if you believe that the market is still going to be a bull market, and you have made your trade back to the market, like I did on April 15th. then just ride out this down we just had. In time the share prices should go higher than the 13.02 share price, the price of the transaction on April 15. If you get nervous and trade just because you lost some share price, you will lose with this system. I have made some trades where the share price went considerably lower than the price that I traded at, but in a little time the share price came back and I made my profit. Right now what I am doing works on the bull market. I am going look at the history that Tom sent to me and see how my findings are. Get back later.

The big news that I did not and should have considered is the Greenspan effect. Knowing that people were now saying that he was considering the hike in the interest rate, should have been out of the market for his speech. But that Monday Morning quarterbacking and we can't do that. I think the Greenspan effect is one of those timesto bea daytrader, when there is a possibility of Greenspan talking, even if there is a possibility of a rate hike, the stocks seem to take a big bite.

FrizzB.
 
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When I started I only used the S and I, then put in the C and then the F. If I had used all the Funds at the begginning my % would be at that 12 to 13 % range. I got hurt using mostly the C and S. As you said the share price went down when the C caught up to the S. Being in the G or F fund would have made a bigger % for me. I was new to this and wanted to be only in the S, C, and I since I heard that this was going to be a good year for the funds. Using all the funds, yes Tom, even the G fund is a wise thing to do. Again you just can't get spooked when you see the shared are going down if you believer that the stocks will still rebound (being in the bull market in long term).
 
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Tom, everytime I click onto the website that you gave me for the funds, I get page not available, If I was to put this on the internet, what is the WWW. for me to use. Thanks again, and it was really nice to see someone else say that they put the #'s on a excel spreadsheet just to see the #'s for themselves and how they go up and down. The % change is something I never thought of. KOOL, A different system.

Frizz B.
 
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marytsp wrote:
I'm going to need a remedial lesson on how you figure your numbers. Thank you for your input. I, too, am learning a lot from this site. It's become my daily ritual to check in here first thing! Good job on everyone's part in here. Thank you!
Click to expand...
Hi Mary!
Sorry I missed yourpost. Itkind of got lost in the middle. I see it was your first so welcome! If you were talking about FrizzB's numbers, you might take a look at his account forum here --->"Frizz B Account." I'm sure he'll be happy to answer questions, which I'm sure you will have,in his "Frizz B's Account Talk" forum also. Just click on the links.

Thanks for joining us!
Tom

 
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I also track data daily giving percentages not only daily up down percents but it also compiles and computes a running tally for the month (Always matches the end of month TSP figures exactly...However, I track on Quattro Pro...Not sure how to send the the program out for others to use.

Current figures since close of trading on the 21st of April


[align=left]APRIL 2004 F FUND C FUND S FUND I FUND[/align]
[align=left]BBF %% 0.69 -1.5 0.38 0.6[/align]
[align=left]MTD% CHANGE -2.24% -0.08% -1.06% -1.04%[/align]

[align=left]MTD$ CHANGE -0.23 -0.01-0.14 -0.14 [/align]

BBF % is the Percentage up or down for the previous month

MTD% (month to Date Percentage up/down) MTD$ is money (in cents) change:dude:
 
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oops that didn't display well at all.. certainly didn't look like that on my screen when I sent it....Sorry
 
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F- fund has lost .23 cents for the month equating to a -2.24% this month

C-fund has lost 1 cent for the month " """ -.08% this month

S- fund lost .14 cents -1.06% this month

I- fund lost .14 cents -1.04% this month

Keeping in mind this is if you were only in 1 fund since the beginning of the month. In and outs buying the dips and riding it out still gives opportunities to pull of a percent or two gain even though the overall stats are not to the positive. Recover lost ground to make you money:dude:
 
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Hope to recover! Lost $$ past 2 days. Haven't been this low since 3/30/04. Maybe today's upward stock swing (finally) will help recovery.
 
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I have pulled the S & P, can you give me the correct Symbols for the S, I and F funds. It will take me a little while to complete but I am on the road.

Frizz B.
 
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Morning Frizz

Have been following your articles...My outlook/opinions are similiar....

Not sure if this is what you are asking for ...

I-Fund (EAFE)

Guys in my office did the research but I am passing it on. We can find out at the close of U.S. trading what the TSP I fund actually closed at sooner.

GO to WWW.MSCI (Morgan Stanley site)

click on Equity Indices on left side of page this will bring you to a chart screen with EAFE

It will show prices for the day of close, additional you can back date the calender at the top of the chart and see what the previous close was and see what you change will be. I have primarily been either been in the I to play or G to hide, however I have used the S in the past.... hope this is what you are looking for concerning the I fund
 
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Good morning everyone. I know it might be a little early stillbut, anyone have allocation recommendations for tomorrow 4/23/04? before the deadline today?Tom? Frizz B.? Thanks all, your comments, responsesare all greatly appreciated.
 
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I agree PR. Glad I left it in stocks as they are soaring. May move all to C and S, delete the I fund. :)
 
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