4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04

[tsptalk]

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Before today's deadline I am going to get a little bold, hoping that nerves scare the market toward the weekend close. I am putting 25% in C, 15% in S and 25% in I fund, leaving 35% in G. So I'll be65% in stocks for Monday.

I am basing this on what could happen by the end of today since we are forced to make decisions by noon ET. The S&P 500 just went over yesterday's high which is always a good sign.Traders couldget nervous about holding stocks over the weekend giving us a nice price to be in for Monday. If we don't get late selling, we may be at a reversal ready to head up. We are very oversold andI am running out of excuses to be out.

I am only going 65% into stocks in case I am wrong and I will still have some ammunition to buy more if we do go down early next week.

I must be driving some of you crazy owith all of these transfers but this is just how I would play my account in a market of this nature.

Tom

 

[puertorico]

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I go two news one good one bad

The good one is my numbers says monday

gonna be up:^

The bad one is ,I am always wrong...

 

[tsptalk]

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The indices stayed surprising buoyant late today. I was hoping for some selling but the fact that traders were willing to take positions home over the weekend bodes well for the market next weekin my opinion. The buyers are getting a little bolder again.

The Nasdaq continued itsweakness but the third support area I talked about Tuesday seemed to hold on Friday. I said...

Just in case you are looking for a potential target on the downside, ~ 2019 would fill the gap. After that 2000 (psychological) then about 1975 (trend line).

Well the gap was filled, then 2000 came and went and today it hit 1982 where that trend line I talked about actually is (not 1975). If that area of supportcan't hold, thenthe floor falls out becausenext area of support isn't until 1905.

Better news is that the S&P did make a higher high today and a higher low (compared to yesterday). It appears to be at least a temporary change in trend to the upside.

 

[TSP-roulette]

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Tom. I made a transfer to 100% in G fund before noon today. Is it feasible to make another transfer today or later on this weekend to more stocks,or perhaps wait until early Monday morning.I guess I jumped the gun this morningas the funds seemed to perform better than yesterday. Does TSP allow for more than one transfer\day? Just wondering, I am new at thisFund\stocksgame and confusion sets in some times.:?

 

[tsptalk]

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Welcome roulette! Love the name.

You can make as many transfers as you want in a day, but only the last one prior to the noon ET deadline will take affect. So if you change your mind, just go in and initiate another transfer. In your case you will be in the G fund Monday no matter what you do. Any new transfer before Monday at noon would be for Tuesday.

Make sense?
Tom

 

[puertorico]

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How are the bets for today ?

Will be a rally:^ or the bote go down

 

[puertorico]

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I dont know but can't afford another down.

In my last three shot I went down two and one up.

so,i need even or I change strategy.

If market go down if not late for a long term.

I gonna sit in a long term:?Hope see some green

 

[highplains]

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you aren't alone puerto rico. timing difficult last week. hope we get bailed out soon.

 

[puertorico]

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HIGHPLAINS:^

i Can't stomach more red !no chin enoff!

 

[Frizz B.]

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If you haven't check out my account, try to read and understand FrizzB account, in Members Allocation, it works for me and I am up over 9 % for the year. My last transaction hit perfectly from the F to the S, I am still looking for a 15 point rise in the S fund and then it will probably be time to get into the F or G fund. Just my opinion. I am not a day trader. I wait for my #'s to tell me what to do.

FrizzB.

 

[puertorico]

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fRIZZ B. I check every single post in this forum.

U post too.Very nice stuff.But for an apprentice

that is big league.I will put an eye again .

U know is to much stuff in the game ,when is not

option is interes rate,or inflaction,deflaction,economic,

job increase,job decrease,good news,bad news,Some

times good news become bad news and viceversa,

sellout ...ect and all that circle make me confused.

It Is too much to handler in a same time.

Little by little baby step I will get there

I learning a lot here in three month [nice very nice] .

 

[Frizz B.]

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I am very suprised at how well I am doing, I have hit on every transaction except for the move to the C fund on March 2nd. I have made up for that one, since. I believe my #'s just tell me when the market is in for a correction. Whether down or up. When I make my change we have either hit a high in the market and unless it keeps on going further it should start to go down, to a point where I hope that I hit again, where it has gone low enough and in time will bypass the point of my low and go high again. Just hope I keep getting lucky on this, so far so good.

FrizzB.

 

[tsptalk]

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It certainly sounds like an effective plan. One thing you may want to work on is what you will do in a bear market. It seems like it could always have you in the stock funds as they go down. You might try using 2000, 2001 or 2002 data to see how your system would hold up.

Thanks,
Tom

 

[tsptalk]

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One other thing Frizz. Not to take away from what you have accomplished because you have done what I have not been able to this year, but your system will work best in this type of market environment, a choppy volatile market. Like I mentioned, a bear market or a bull market for that matter, may need another set of requirements for fund changes. Think about that. You can havedifferent type of criteria based on whether the market is trending (like a bear or bull market) or oscillating, as it is now.

Like I've said before, I believe you are onto something but constant tweaking as you gain experience from different market conditions will make it better.

Thanks again,
Tom

 

[Frizz B.]

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Is there a way to get day to day data for those years, I only believe you can get month to month data, I have made up to three changes in a month, some within 4 days of each other, that is how it can change so quickly, and yes I have thought and been asked about those questions about the bulls and bears market. I am good with #'s and even if I lose once in a while, I do not believe that I will keep this 90% record rate of transaction. I have faith in what I see. Even in a down market you had times where the market gained and then went to lose again. I hope I can keep adjusting to this, I am not trying to say I my system is perfect, but I hope I can stay ahead of the game with it. We shall see. I will look at the monthly data and who knows. I will let you know in a little while once I see how it looks. But without day to day #'s, I not sure I could use this system.

FrizzB.

 

[tsptalk]

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What you can do is come up with a spreadsheet to convert actual S&P 500 and EAFE prices to a share price. For example if the S&P 500 was 900 in say May 2002, divide it by 100 to come up with a share price of 9.00. Then Divide the same day's EAFE price by 100 to come up with a share price and compare the two somehow. It might be sloppy but it should give you the same results percentage-wise.

Sounds like a lot of work but somehow I believe you like to do stuff like that. :dude:

Keep up the good work.
Tom

 

[marytsp]

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I'm going to need a remedial lesson on how you figure your numbers. Thank you for your input. I, too, am learning a lot from this site. It's become my daily ritual to check in here first thing! Good job on everyone's part in here. Thank you!

 

[Frizz B.]

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Tom, I have been looking for daily share prices for those years you were talking about. Without daily quotes, I can not know if my system is accurate. I have make up to 3 changes in a month. So Monthly rates will not due it for me. I have been tracking since June 1 when the market started to go up. The C, S and I funds were almost identical, and then the C took a back seat to the S and I. The S and I went back and forth until December and then the I fund has not looked back. I just keep watching the #'s and see how they relate to each other.

Do you know where I can get the daily #'s for the F, S, C, and I fund. If I do not have at least 3 of the 4 daily rates, I would not be able to justify my findings.

FrizzB.

 

[tsptalk]

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I thought I was answering that question with my prior post? I guess it wasn't too clear. There were no shares or shareprices prior to last June. You can however use the indices themself to come up with your share prices. On May 31st, 2003 all funds were $10.00. If you are ambitious, using the indices and an Excel formula you can decipher what the hypothetical share prices were prior toMay 31st.

 

[Frizz B.]

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I did understand what to do, but where to find the indices for each day is my question. Where would I find these indices for the funds.