350Z's I Fund Thread - Sept. 07

[Birchtree]

We are now going to have strength with low inflation - they have room to cut. They have no reason to hold steady as long as inflation is contained. I don't think the market really cares either way: good cap-ex spending in the last eight quarters, increased labor productivity, moderating wage growth, increased exports with subsequent trade deficit reduction, possibility of double digit earnings again going forward into 2008, continued historic low mortgage rates and other low interest rates, euro zone folks on their way to acquire assets, Chinese looking for asset plays, market sentiment at historic lows, NYSE breadth MCO has had a double initiation thrust over the past week and a second higher high on Monday taking out highs for the past year, three 9 to 1 Zweig thrusts, OSM's holding rates steady, most indexes are showing patterns of bottoms above bottoms, technology currently leading.

 

[12%ayear]

Bottom-line is they have to cut. I agree with 350z. Many tall-tales signs of a sluggish real estate markets that is effecting everyone from lenders,service industry,to retailers. This has nothing to do with helping/bailing out people , it has to do with saving the economy from tailspinning into a recession. It is better to fight inflation later than to face a recession. I posted a great read several days ago about this.

 

[ebbnflow]

G 12.10 even
F 11.54 -.01 -0.09%
C 16.57 +.07 +0.42%
S 20.02 +.07 +0.35%
I 23.84 +.12 +0.51%

That's all folks!

 

[dell]

Ebb: Are you still moving 100% to the I tomorrow?

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb: Are you still moving 100% to the I tomorrow?

Dell, that's right. I'm doing an IFT to the I-fund tomorrow morning to be in the I-fund for Monday.

 

[dell]

Seems a little risky to me but I certainly will not argue with the results of your system.

Thanks.

 

[Robo5555]

An Awesome system it is.

 

[Fivetears]

These kinda numbers look like our markets are getting back to their old self's again; sorta tranquil. I like the channels forming in the Fundsurfer charts too. He's not completely convinced in the short term yet... but I can see 'em shaping up ok.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=114157&postcount=496

G 12.10 even
F 11.54 -.01 -0.09%
C 16.57 +.07 +0.42%
S 20.02 +.07 +0.35%
I 23.84 +.12 +0.51%

That's all folks!

 

[350zCommTech]

Current estimate: Down .314% or -7 cents.


The dollar fell of a cliff.

 

[James48843]

Jobs report just came out.

instead of 100,000 to 110,000 new jobs created, as forecasted, the report says 4,000 FEWER jobs in August.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070907/economy.html?.v=2


It's a HUGE blow.

Anyone want to guess how the market will react?

Fed has real good reason now to cut interest rates.... will we slide down big this morning?

 

[350zCommTech]

Jobs report just came out.

instead of 100,000 to 110,000 new jobs created, as forecasted, the report says 4,000 FEWER jobs in August.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070907/economy.html?.v=2


It's a HUGE blow.

Anyone want to guess how the market will react?

Fed has real good reason now to cut interest rates.... will we slide down big this morning?

They finally told the truth because they needed an excuse to cut. I say we finish green today.

 

[nnuut]

The last time something like this happened (last Tuesday, I think) the market rallied but reversed the next day.

 

[fedgolfer]

if they fix the jobs data, he'll have his academic excuse to cut. Supposedly, he wrote papers on Japan waiting too long to cut and then they were led into a recession. Ain't no way he wants the R word -- which is where we'll go if the investing class can't make money in real estate or equities -- which will be a real freeze on liquidity. Get ready for the happy endings, we're in Benny's Bunny Ranch.

EASY MONEY!!!!! Back up the truck and load up. Tech analysis will say buy after the mornining scare, Ebb charts are all green, jobs data will spook the retail investors while the big boys whipsaw 'em going into the fed cut. If there's big volume buying anytime today, that's 100% confirmation that the big boys are playing the rate cut.

 

[350zCommTech]

Current estimate: Down .538% or -13 cents.

 

[James48843]

If it wasn't for the dollar's plunge, it would be a lot worse.


not including the dollar, now showing down -.41 cents.

With the dollar, now down -.14 cents.

Whipsaw day?

 

[pezfallout]

I wish I could just set up my tsp to auto-trade according to Ebb's tracker and not read the forums. I'm not deviating from his tracker but it always makes me squeamish.

 

[Robo5555]

I wish I could just set up my tsp to auto-trade according to Ebb's tracker and not read the forums. I'm not deviating from his tracker but it always makes me squeamish.

Of course it makes people sqeamish. There are some huge gambles taking place here. I love being part of this....even when I lose....bottom line is that this forums are part of my daily fuel!!! Thanks to all. I guess it explains my avatar......

 

[James48843]

Yep.

Squeamish is a good word.

But what is really interesting to me today is seeing that S&P 500 benchmark of 1460 holding up. that is aroudn the 200-day moving average.

So we get a move in for Monday from EBB.

And a sentiment survey signal to move back in.

Good news.

My only question is do I pul the trigger and move in today, or wait until Monday, in case this downturn goes one day longer.

tought call.....

 

[Wrngway]

From time to time I get the squeemish feeling too. The last couple of times I went against the tracker though, it didn't turn out well.

Today, I'm moving into I-Fund, but there's a possibility of a +FV seeing as we're down hard early this morning.

 

[Red_65_Mustang]

Hey, Ebb thanks for the great discussion on the ebbchart page. I watched it for 2 months before jumping in. In only 10 days my returns are:
Ebb system: 7.76%
I fund: