350Z's I Fund Thread JAN 08

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12%ayear said:
big -fv coming
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You guys just won't learn... No fv talk!!!... didn't you see the headlines??... Barclay's fv determinations were being outsourced to some French bank and this guy was in charge :p plausible deniability?? :D

data
 
You've got to be kidding me. ChickenChit short covering in the last 10 mins?

Cowards! It's not like Ben can come out and cut rates on Monday...:nuts:

Dow managed to hold 12200. It's doesn't mean anything.
 
So... will the news leading up to the FOMC be all about the hedge fund collapses that were floating around all day today? More temper tantrums to get another cut?

from www.bloomberg.com

U.S. Treasury Notes Advance as Drop in Stocks Increases Demand

By Sandra Hernandez and Deborah Finestone
Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury notes gained, heading for their sixth straight weekly advance, as declining stocks fueled concern that the U.S. economy will fall into recession.
Traders drove two-year note yields 1.39 percentage points below those on 10-year notes, close to the biggest gap since 2004, on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by as much as a half-percentage point on Jan. 30. Volatility in Treasuries reached the highest in a decade this week as policy makers cut their target in an emergency move, while stocks posted the longest slide since 2002.
``Yields at these levels reflect safe-haven flows,'' said Jane Caron, chief economic strategist in Burlington, Vermont, at Dwight Asset Management Co., which oversees $68 billion of fixed-income assets. ``Treasuries are being used as a parking place for cash worldwide until there's a better sense of global financial-market direction.''
The two-year note yield fell 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point, to 2.19 percent as of 2:16 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The 3 1/4 percent note due December 2009 rose 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face value, to 101 31/32. The yield is down 16 basis points this week, and has dropped about 1.1 percentage point since mid-December.
The 10-year note yield dropped 12 basis points today to 3.59 percent. The yield touched 3.29 percent this week, the lowest since June 2003, as investors sought shelter from falling stocks. Five- and 10-year yields have also fallen for six weeks.

Treasury Volatility
Ten-year TIPS yielded 2.22 percentage points less than similar-maturity notes, down 7 basis points from yesterday. The difference, or breakeven rate, indicates the rate of inflation investors expect over the next decade.
Merrill Lynch & Co.'s MOVE index, which measures volatility on Treasury options, climbed to 171.7 yesterday. That's the highest since October 1998, when the Fed cut interest rates between meetings, responding to financial-market turmoil after the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP.
In another sign of how turbulent trading has been this week, the five-day historical yield volatility on the 3 5/8 percent coupon Treasury maturing in December 2012 reached 132.7 yesterday, up from 30.4 on Jan. 10.
``I don't remember triple-digit volatility,'' said Cerra of TIAA-CREF. ``It's really beyond my 23 years of experience.''

Have a great weekend everyone!!:):)
 
Originally Posted by 12%ayear
You are going to have profit-taking tomorrow. IMO.......watch how they work!!!In this kind of market we are in, the bears are still in control. You have to take profits and sideline. That is why I got killed the last few months. Although MSFT beat and the QQQQs are green after-hours means crap. They will open it higher and sell into it. We are still not out of the woods. Trading this market is the key to obtaining higher returns. I am not going to stay postioned in one fund anymore. That aside, I will be in the S Fund Monday. I am aiming for .50%-1% a week. BTW..no EFT in the other room. I will post it in here...........................
 
12%ayear said:
Originally Posted by 12%ayear
You are going to have profit-taking tomorrow. IMO.......watch how they work!!!In this kind of market we are in, the bears are still in control. You have to take profits and sideline. That is why I got killed the last few months. Although MSFT beat and the QQQQs are green after-hours means crap. They will open it higher and sell into it. We are still not out of the woods. Trading this market is the key to obtaining higher returns. I am not going to stay postioned in one fund anymore. That aside, I will be in the S Fund Monday. I am aiming for .50%-1% a week. BTW..no EFT in the other room. I will post it in here...........................
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I posted above yesterday. They will run the markets Monday.
 
350zCommTech said:
I was close.

Down 6 cents.

The I fund got a 24 cent -FV.

If you just jumped in to the I fund for Monday, you're ahead by 24 cents.
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it will be needed when the Nikkei sells off Sunday night.Also the US DOLLAR is ready to pop. IMO the USMs will be the winner Monday. Looking at the C Fund next week. Huge laggard and battered. Great play FED.Day. Small Caps for Monday.
 
BE SCARED!!! I think this past week was the best we're going to see for awhile. The word on the street is that the great Fed will only cut 25 this next meeting! I kinda believe it. That means the people will be pissed...and sell like crazy again trying to get someone to listen. This past couple of days, by no means represents the "wind at your back" theory. The rate cut was too late and the stim package will only put a few bucks in your wallet to spend on whatever. The bears still own this market imo. Like I said ....BE SCARED!
 
Gunny said:
BE SCARED!!! I think this past week was the best we're going to see for awhile. The word on the street is that the great Fed will only cut 25 this next meeting! I kinda believe it. That means the people will be pissed...and sell like crazy again trying to get someone to listen. This past couple of days, by no means represents the "wind at your back" theory. The rate cut was too late and the stim package will only put a few bucks in your wallet to spend on whatever. The bears still own this market imo. Like I said ....BE SCARED!
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That's what I like to hear... F E A R

:D
 
Fear... Yes. But an opportunity to jump in at the bottom and make some serious cash....YESSS!!!! Hope our instincts are right when we decide to dive back in. Good luck all.
 
$117B exposure for 4 German banks.:nuts:

Landesbanks' subprime exposure 80 bln eur -report

Sat Jan 26, 2008 6:17am EST

FRANKFURT, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Four German state banks have a combined exposure of almost 80 billion euros ($117.2 billion) to risky assets and the state bank of Bavaria, BayernLB, could need an over 2 billion euro write-down, FOCUS magazine reported.

Germany's Landesbanks are financial institutions owned by regional government and local community savings banks.
FOCUS, in a preview received on Saturday of an article due for publication on Monday, said the other three banks were WestLB, LBBW and HSH Nordbank.

The banks are considering whether to transfer their U.S. subprime debt-related instruments to a special-purpose vehicle, the weekly magazine reported without citing its sources.http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSL2651648120080126
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Gunny said:
Fear... Yes. But an opportunity to jump in at the bottom and make some serious cash....YESSS!!!! Hope our instincts are right when we decide to dive back in. Good luck all.
Click to expand...

That's just it... where's the bottom???

Lotsa folks all around were calling it last week. Well, they can go ahead and call it if they want. We'll just sit back and watch them get creamed.

Then we'll come in and clean up.:D
 
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