350Z's I Fund Thread JAN 08

[350zCommTech]

Looks like you're expectations yesterday for the Nikkie and other market expectations for today didn't pan out 350.....

I would presume that means something as far as the current market temperment......

Well, they were up 110 points in their first half. The tanking came in the second half after some bad sushi. The problem with the Nikkei is that it might be in a free fall mode. Rising Yen and a bear market.:worried:

 

[350zCommTech]

350z,
Remember the "Bernanke Put"? Emergency rate cut on experation day.

You bet I do. I made big bucks that Friday morning.

But that game has already been played. I don't see him waiting that long. If CPI is tame, he might do it tomorrow. That particular OPEX was special because the options were set to expire at the opening of the market(opening price). A lot of shorts were looking to make money at the open of the market. By doing what he did, a lot of shorts lost money when they should have made money. Ben should have just waited until after the market had opened. He pissed off a lot of people that day.

This OPEX is just a normal one I believe.

 

[Robo5555]

Looks like another bad day.

 

[350zCommTech]

Current estimate: Down 34 cents.

The I fund is getting a lot of help from the dollar. Ben said he was ready and willing so he now needs to walk the talk. The problem is that he will be sacrificing the dollar.

 

[pezfallout]

If we get the cut tomorrow it may shape up for a really profitable day if today continues to tank. If you can buy it tonight after a huge -FV if it continues to drop after the cutoff you could make out like a bandit. Anyone else considering jumping in today?

 

[350zCommTech]

If we get the cut tomorrow it may shape up for a really profitable day if today continues to tank. If you can buy it tonight after a huge -FV if it continues to drop after the cutoff you could make out like a bandit. Anyone else considering jumping in today?

IMHO, the I fund should be avoided. It's too risky to play for the -FV. The USM could hit the August lows again this afternoon and bounce on a leaked Fed cut tomorrow. If that happens, you could end up getting a +FV. Besides that, the rising Yen is going to be a problem for the Nikkei. If they panic, you might see the Nikkei lose 4% or more. That would wipe out you -FVC.

 

[350zCommTech]

Current estimate: Down 41 cents.

 

[350zCommTech]

Nikkei 225 futures down 445 points at 13765.

http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/...uctFoiType=FUT&ProductVenue=R&ProductType=idx

 

[350zCommTech]

Down 49 cents.

 

[James48843]

Ouch.

Man, look at that red flow.......

 

[350zCommTech]

MSCI EAFE = -2.2% or down 52 cents.

 

[MR_BOOOOM]

MSCI EAFE = -2.2% or down 52 cents.

Is there a chance of a -FV ?

 

[GUCHI]

i have been stuck in I fund since the first of the year and can't find a break out. that sucks !!!! going to have to ride it out now. any other suggestions ???

 

[350zCommTech]

Is there a chance of a -FV ?

Yes, since the dollar was up slightly in the afternoon, Barclay will be on the aggressive side. The tanking in the last 30 mins might have also sealed the FV deal.

I would not be surprised to see a 17 cents -FV tonight.

Total could be -69 cents.


I bet you they are examining our IFTs right now!

 

[poolman]

Intel misses by .02 cents on earnings consensus estimate.

 

[350zCommTech]

Intel misses by .02 cents on earnings consensus estimate.

Yup, missed by 2 cents and they got slaughter? Looks like my move back in might turn out to be early. Like they say, news always trump technicals.

Poolman,

looks like you mistake this morning might have been good fortune.

 

[poolman]

Yup, missed by 2 cents and they got slaughter? Looks like my move back in might turn out to be early. Like they say, news always trump technicals.

Poolman,

looks like you mistake this morning might have been good fortune.

read my post, can't believe what happen'd.

 

[caymanbrac12]

You bet I do. I made big bucks that Friday morning.

But that game has already been played. I don't see him waiting that long. If CPI is tame, he might do it tomorrow. That particular OPEX was special because the options were set to expire at the opening of the market(opening price). A lot of shorts were looking to make money at the open of the market. By doing what he did, a lot of shorts lost money when they should have made money. Ben should have just waited until after the market had opened. He pissed off a lot of people that day.

This OPEX is just a normal one I believe.

It takes a consensus of the voting member to call an emergency fomc meeting to raise or lower rates and they have to agree on the number - it's not all on Ben. It ain't gonna happen - there is too much divergence in the members. They are sticking to the set dates.

Greg

 

[350zCommTech]

It takes a consensus of the voting member to call an emergency fomc meeting to raise or lower rates and they have to agree on the number - it's not all on Ben. Greg

I know that.

 

[poolman]

I know that.

I know that too !