350Z's I fund thread DEC 07

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i agree with robo.it and it all depends on when the withdrawal date is.longer time horizons i would be fully invested in a particular fund then move it around+ its easier to do the math.......:cheesy:
 
Robo5555 said:
There is a flip side to that coin. With 18 years to go the markets will be up and down several times b4 you retire. So you can afford to be aggressive and you can always go to the lili pad with a drop and minimize your losses. Then jump back all in when the rally starts. IMHO is ok to be 100% in one fund. Most people here do that quite often. No offense hesssian.
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Robo, I agree, there likely is plenty of time for Gunny, I'm just trying to suggest to learn what's what, before leaping into Funds 100%. Especially, the "I" - the most volatile and riskiest Fund there is! BIG LOSSES are possible here. Even the "most experienced traders" on the Board, often make wild, unpredictable, disparately different moves on sudden notice, when switching into/out of funds. :blink:
What's the harm in suggesting some time to learn? -I responded as I did because he said -he's not really knowing why he's in "I".
VR
PS You really think he knows "the math?" -maybe ask him?
PPS Sorry Gunny, you'll learn that opinions vary on this board. It is its greatest benefit, and all on you to decide.
 
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Big losses are possible for anyone that goes 100% in one fund. The bigger the risks the bigger the losses or rewards. No one can predict the market. Its a beast of its own. Decades of experience in trading do not give you an edge in what the market is going to do. Remember the year 2000? A lot of experts lost their sox. An educated guess is almost as good as a rookie one. Thats why we bet on the "contrarian" moves often and win. Contrarian moves are against knowledge, experience and common sence. We just love this game so much that we crave more and more information. :-)
 
Yeah, I was in the 2040 fund but felt I could do better in the fund I wanted to go long in. The I fund seemed logical since I saw the the dollar struggling, the internationals seeming strong and our economy "wondering if we're going into a recession". Also, I had heard, if gold goes up the I goes up due to the dollar..??? It just seemed like a good bet for awhile. Besides, like Robo said I have plenty of time to ride aggressively.
 
anyone have any ideas on allocation mix with the new measures going into effect. I am 60 S and 40 I have been for a while. 10 years left to retire.
Thanks
I am thinking G thru the first quarter then who knows after that.
Joe
 
I'm going to start easing a little at the time into G during 2008 and will probably be all G by the end of 08.

Or I could get spooked anytime and go 100 G and stay there and not worry about it.

GGAL
 
350z, I'm more a lurker than poster, generally read posts and charts and then try to make my own decisions. One curiosity I'm starting to notice is a divergence from the I funds and the s and c funds. Generally they run fairly close with each other. The last week or sothey seem to have become detached for lack of a better word. I like bigcharts, glancing at the three month chart with bollinger bands would you agree? It appears we may be at the top of a cycle with the c and s, and just starting a good strong up trend in the I? This is what i use for the I fund designator xx:1771565.

Thanks for your analysis. Howxotk
 
If you are looking at EFA fund to track I note that they paid a couple dollar dividend, they took some money out so the value appeared to drop. That and the dollars value is fluctuating which effect foreign funds values. Take these two factors out and they track closer.
Other than that I think the credit crunch is effecting Europe and Asia later, so the effect there is delayed and showing up more now.
 
If it were 2002 again I'd be totally comfortable going 100% in an international fund, but the heavy lifting has essentially been completed and now the first one out the door will be the survivor - not saying the end is in sight but certainly somewhere over the next horizon, especially if we slow our economy. Even a dance hall girl gets tired.
 
I really need to pay more attention to the sentiment survey. Sure whipped the pants off my returns. Think I will stay in the I fund for one more week and see what the survey says.
Later, Vol46
 
Howxotk said:
350z, I'm more a lurker than poster, generally read posts and charts and then try to make my own decisions. One curiosity I'm starting to notice is a divergence from the I funds and the s and c funds. Generally they run fairly close with each other. The last week or sothey seem to have become detached for lack of a better word. I like bigcharts, glancing at the three month chart with bollinger bands would you agree? It appears we may be at the top of a cycle with the c and s, and just starting a good strong up trend in the I? This is what i use for the I fund designator xx:1771565.

Thanks for your analysis. Howxotk
Click to expand...

The divergence was due to the dollar. I would agree about the tops for the C and S but not about the up trend in the I. Since you don't know, I don't use the EFA charts for any analysis except for estimating FVs. I do look at charts for major countries in the I fund though.

If the USM continues to move down, so will the OSMs. If the dollar continues to fall, it will offset the losses or even show a gain in the EFA, just like what happened on Friday. No technical analysis involved there.
 
The guy who wrote that article seems to have no clue what to do. But does anybody? It's anyone's hunch at what will happen in 2008. Mine.....I'm in the I Fund for now @ 100%. Once the market looks to stabilize then I'll probably consider jumping to the C. Thank God I have some time to gamble! Good luck everyone and Happy New Year.:D
 
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