350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[ebbnflow]

If we get a -FV, is -6 cents about right?

That would make a total of (-28) cents for the day.

If Barclays decide to exercise their prerogative (thievery/filching), then it would be at least a -.10 cents FV added to the -.22 cents today.

 

[350zCommTech]

Especially true because the Hong Kong market was closed today for (the) Buddha's birthday. The HSI might fall fast and hard on the open.

Yes, HSI will fall fast tonight, but I was referring to the Shanghai(main land) stock market. I believe it will be closely watched tonight.

Posted above when market was in a fake rally mode. These Sharks will kill you. They were trapping new money and selling into it. Asia is going to get killed tonight. I hope everyone bailed and I hope nobody loses any capital. Hope I am wrong

What happened today appears to have been just profit taking. Looking at todays' modest rise in the Yen, I don't see any trouble, yet. As I said earlier today, the key will be the Shanghai stock market. If the Yen remains stable or falls tonight, Shanghai will be OK and the USM will probably bounce tomorrow afternoon or Tuesday.

 

[350zCommTech]

If Barclays decide to exercise their prerogative (thievery/filching), then it would be at least a -.10 cents FV added to the -.22 cents today.

If the FV is .5%, then it would be .5% of the current I fund price.

 

[12%ayear]

Yes, HSI will fall fast tonight, but I was referring to the Shanghai(main land) stock market. I believe it will be closely watched tonight.



What happened today appears to have been just profit taking. Looking at todays' modest rise in the Yen, I don't see any trouble, yet. As I said earlier today, the key will be the Shanghai stock market. If the Yen remains stable or falls tonight, Shanghai will be OK and the USM will probably bounce tomorrow afternoon or Tuesday.

I disagree about the profit taking. It seems to me smart money is establishing short postions . Shanghai should sell-off tonight taking all markets with it. Regarding fv..when was the last time there was a fv? It has been a while!!! I think Barclay(hate to say it and hope I am wrong) will dish one out tonight. Why? Barclay has not been upfront and they want everyone to know that FV is still out there.Regarding tomorrow, want to see what the OSMs do and USMs.......Now it gets real tricky

 

[ebbnflow]

Regarding fv..when was the last time there was a fv? It has been a while!!! I think Barclay(hate to say it and hope I am wrong) will dish one out tonight. Why? Barclay has not been upfront and they want everyone to know that FV is still out there.Regarding tomorrow, want to see what the OSMs do and USMs.......Now it gets real tricky

G 11.93 even
F 11.30 even
C 16.80 -.16 (-0.94%)
S 20.31 -.30 (-1.46%)
I 24.26 -.35 (-1.42%)

Dang, Barclays did exercise their prerogative of saddling the I-funders with a -FV of -.13 cents.

12% called it right!

 

[ebbnflow]

That can only mean one thing with this FV -- Barclays know there will be a bloodbath tonight. No doubt about it.

 

[350zCommTech]

That can only mean one thing with this FV -- Barclays know there will be a bloodbath tonight. No doubt about it.

As I've said before, Barclays will do whatever they want.

 

[jayhawker]

That can only mean one thing with this FV -- Barclays know there will be a bloodbath tonight. No doubt about it.

Japan opened down 1.03%. Australia down .75% after one hour. Here comes the dawn.

 

[qibovin]

Japan opened down 1.03%. Australia down .75% after one hour. Here comes the dawn.

And after all that, China is (still) up! Can we get a China fund in the TSP?

 

[350zCommTech]

Japan opened down 1.03%. Australia down .75% after one hour. Here comes the dawn.

And after all that, China is (still) up! Can we get a China fund in the TSP?

Yep, Shanghai has recovered from the opening low. The Yen is also trying to stabilize after another modest rise on Japan CPI. So far, these two things tells me that a bounce in the USM might be around the corner.

 

[ayla]

Besides the Shanghai market appearing to stabilize, it looks like the CBOE put/call ratio is staying fairly well behaved, unlike it was a couple of days before the Feb 27th correction (too bad I wasn't watching it then.)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$CPC

On the negative side, the 20SMA for the dollar is moving upwards towards a crossover with the 50SMA. Seems like these kinds of crossovers can cause some responses that aren't always pleasant.

 

[12%ayear]

05/25 05:03

Value2,230.04Change-14.700 % Change-0.655
Going to the I Fund for next MON/TUES. Looking for a bounce and some + FV,then I will be locking.

 

[350zCommTech]

Yep, Shanghai has recovered from the opening low. The Yen is also trying to stabilize after another modest rise on Japan CPI. So far, these two things tells me that a bounce in the USM might be around the corner.

The Yen has fallen nicely overnight as Shanghai shrugged off the USM sell-off. Looks like a rebound is in the air.

 

[FundSurfer]

I see several people buying into the I-fund. I considering it as well. If you own I-fund you will have to hold it over a three day weekend. The risk is that something will brew up in the world. If nothing brews then I think you could be well rewarded on Monday.

 

[clester]

Whats the outlook for the dollar? Anyone have an opinion? Thanks

 

[jayhawker]

Early estimate:
TSPLookup: -.256% or -6 cents.
bloomberg.com: -.302% or -7 cents.

Plus a 13 cent FV correction.

 

[FundSurfer]

Whats the outlook for the dollar? Anyone have an opinion? Thanks

Dollar has begun to trend up. I expect this may continue for a while.

 

[jayhawker]

11:40 AM EDT estimate:
TSPLookup: -.345% or -8 cents.
bloomberg.com: -.345% or -8 cents.

What a coincidence!

Plus a 13 cent FV correction.

I'll be Vegas next week and don't know when I'll be back. Somebody step up and make the estimates. You have everything you need. TSPLookup and bloomberg.com.

Ed.

 

[McDuck]

Unfair Valuation Tally

04/12/07 I-fund -0.084% MSCI -0.073%
04/13/07 I-fund 0.794% MSCI 0.240% <= UFV 0.554%
04/16/07 I-fund 0.705% MSCI 1.262% <= UFV -0.557%
04/17/07 I-fund 0.207% MSCI 0.17%
04/18/07 I-fund 0.124% MSCI 0.112%
04/19/07 I-fund -0.582% MSCI -0.599%
04/20/07 I-fund 0.825% MSCI 0.816%
04/23/07 I-fund -0.165% MSCI -0.215%
04/24/07 I-fund -0.373% MSCI -0.366%
04/25/07 I-fund 0.454% MSCI 0.399%
04/26/07 I-fund -0.083% MSCI -0.139%
04/27/07 I-fund -0.249% MSCI -0.258%
04/30/07 I-fund -0.583% MSCI 0.080% <= UFV -0.663%
05/01/07 I-fund 0.208% MSCI -0.499% <= UFV 0.707%
05/02/07 I-fund 0.579% MSCI 0.518%
05/03/07 I-fund 0.041% MSCI 0.045%
05/04/07 I-fund 0.820% MSCI 0.75%
05/07/07 I-fund 0.732% MSCI 0.707%
05/08/07 I-fund -1.111% MSCI -1.096%
05/09/07 I-fund 0.573% MSCI 0.508%
05/10/07 I-fund -1.705% MSCI -0.905% <= UFV -0.800%
05/11/07 I-fund 0.988% MSCI 0.201% <= UFV 0.787%
05/14/07 I-fund 0.164% MSCI 0.125%
05/15/07 I-fund 0.246% MSCI 0.237%
05/16/07 I-fund -0.329% MSCI -0.364%
05/17/07 I-fund -0.330% MSCI -0.326%
05/18/07 I-fund 0.534% MSCI 0.504%
05/21/07 I-fund 0.000% MSCI -0.132% <= UFV 0.132%
05/22/07 I-fund 0.246% MSCI 0.259%
05/23/07 I-fund 0.813% MSCI 0.811%
05/24/07 I-fund -1.443% MSCI -0.896% <= UFV -0.547%

 

[jayhawker]

EAFE final: -.295% or -7 cents +13 cent FV correction = +6 cents.