350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

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Pilgrim said:
What's so important about "carry trade"? Does this matter to us?
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"The yen rules; and Japan's authorities wish it wasn't as the yen carry trade is being unwound in the most violent manner everywhere around the trading world this morning," said Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter. "This is already a very, very ugly day and we fear it is only going to get worse. Put your tray tables and seats into a locked and upright position and prepare for a very, very bumpy ride."
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Is that a rhetorical question? If not, then yes, it's very important. It's the cheap money that's been driving up markets all over the world. As the Yen rises, that cheap money becomes less cheap or more expensive.
 
This "Kerry" trade... Is ole John putting in his bid or something???:laugh:
 
350zCommTech said:
Is that a rhetorical question? If not, then yes, it's very important. It's the cheap money that's been driving up markets all over the world. As the Yen rises, that cheap money becomes less cheap or more expensive.
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It's really not that the increase in interest rates in Japan has had a major affect on the value of the yen so much as it's about the Yen appreciating at very swift rate that has caught the hedgies off guard. Another words, the specter of being squeezed by a shift in monetary policy via interest rate hikes and a sudden appreciation of the Yen has caught the hedgies in a vice and they're being squeezed. This practice (Yen carry trade) is so large and has been in place for such a long time that any real serious shift in monetary policy in Japan will create a tremendous amount of havoc first in equity markets around the world and then in bond markets. Good luck trying to time this ongoing event.
 
Fivetears said:
How often does the Yen Carry-Trade phenomenon occur?
When was the last one that so adversely affected world markets?
Are there any charts illustrating a previous occurrence, where the Carry-Trade tore up the markets?
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The Yen carry trade is ongoing. I could be wrong but I think it started back in the early 90's.

The last time the Yen carry trade unwound was back in May 06', when the Yen rose about 6%. I don't think you need to see a chart of the markets in May 06', do you?:D
 
Nope! Remember and charted it well.
I don't remember that drop as being Carry-Trade related.
I'm just looking for more quick "laymans" info on the topic.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=81738#post81738
350zCommTech said:
The Yen carry trade is ongoing. I could be wrong but I think it started back in the early 90's.

The last time the Yen carry trade unwound was back in May 06', when the Yen rose about 6%. I don't think you need to see a chart of the markets in May 06', do you?:D
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12%ayear;81786 said:
what was the final estimate today with the I Fund ? tia
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Here's what we're looking at for the I fund tonight:

Down 2.065% or -46 cents, plus 20 cents FVC, and plus today's -13 cents FV,

total should be -39 cents, if Barclays uses the conservative approach.
 
With another bad finish for the USM and the Yen on the rise again, within the last hour, it does not look good for Japan. If the USD/YEN drops below todays' low tonight, look out.

So far, since 2/22/07, the USD/YEN has dropped 5%. Back in April/May 06, the USD/YEN fell 7.5%. But the sell-off in the USM did not start off until May 10th, when Bernacke came out hawkish, in trying to save the dollar.
 
Don't worry, I won't inundate the thread again tonight...;)

I was bored... what can I say.

Anyways, keep in mind the next Nik lows that will be tested:

16,417.82 on 8 Dec

16,265.76 on 5 Dec

15,855.26 on 28 Nov

Also, the Nik 300 is 1.22 away from its 2007 low put in on Jan 11.

I didn't track it in 2006, so I have no more data for it readily available.
 
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