350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[airlift]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

Some time ago, someone at TSPtalk analised the Nikkei and concluded that our I fund is more atuned to the Nikkei 300, which closed positive today at 357.71 (+.15%), instead of the Nikkei 225 (closed at 17,913.21 (-.14%)). If I have interpreted this correctly, this is a relative plus and we should be on the right track today, even though the FTSE is negative in Europe, unless we get other surprises.

 

[airlift]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

CPI numbers came in higher than expected (inflationary).

 

[mayday]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

I thought that the dollar was going to take dive today when the announcement of an interest rate hike happened in Japan. Anybody got an answer why it has not happened yet?

 

[roguewave]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

I was expecting more of a reaction from both the Nikkei and USD/YEN but I'm not seeing it yet. I wonder if their statement had a cautious/dovish tone to it.

The spread between Japanese, Euro and U.S. bonds is still to wide for this rate change to really matter. Plus, these countries are still, in terms of providing liquidity, filling the swamp at a faster rate then they're draining it. The I fund is still the party.

 

[mayday]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

The spread between Japanese, Euro and U.S. bonds is still to wide for this rate change to really matter. Plus, these countries are still filling the swamp at a faster rate then they're draining it. The I fund is still the party.

I know this rate increase will put some brakes on the US equities. Yet I was counting on a dollar drop. Big reason why I made the move to I fund yesterday.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

I thought that the dollar was going to take dive today when the announcement of an interest rate hike happened in Japan. Anybody got an answer why it has not happened yet?

The spread between Japanese, Euro and U.S. bonds is still to wide for this rate change to really matter. Plus, these countries are still, in terms of providing liquidity, filling the swamp at a faster rate then they're draining it. The I fund is still the party.

Yup, I thought that might be it. Especially with the USD/YEN rising yesterday ahead of the BOJ. That's was another reason why I stayed out.

Thanks Roguewave

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

I know this rate increase will put some brakes on the US equities. Yet I was counting on a dollar drop. Big reason why I made the move to I fund yesterday.

Mayday,

I remember a while ago when either the BOE or ECB, can't remember which one, hiked their rate and the dollar rose anyway. At that time, their lending rate was very low and the hike was only .25% and not much hawkish tone.

 

[FundSurfer]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

Inflationary numbers = Greater Chance Fed will raise interest rates in the future = dollar strength = dollar index goes up = also negatively impacts OSM = double negative whammy to I-fund = ouch.

I actually expected the opposite, lower CPI. I figured the lower fuel cost these last couple months had helped those numbers.

Mayday, you and I will pay for that mistake today. Oh well, it is a marathon not a sprint, more days ahead.

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

Is it realistic to anticipate any type of reversal in the I fund once the Fed FOMC statement is released today, or does the CPI PPI trump the FOMC language? If the I fund tanks pre-IFT deadline, then slightly reverses due to the FOMC statement, could we be looking at a +FV to help cushion today's potential I fund loss?

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

Is it realistic to anticipate any type of reversal in the I fund once the Fed FOMC statement is released today, or does the CPI PPI trump the FOMC language? If the I fund tanks pre-IFT deadline, then slightly reverses due to the FOMC statement, could we be looking at a +FV to help cushion today's potential I fund loss?

Yes, that is a definite possibility. The Fed minutes is from the announcement on 1/31/07. We all know what happened that day. It was a huge rally on the announcement. But I'm not expecting a rally on these minutes because the market has already rallied twice on Bernacke and the minutes might not show anything new.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

It looks like the bulls are trying to stop this market from crashing. It worked yesterday. Lets see if it'll work today.

The idiots that drove NFI up 2.2% yesterday should be spanked!

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

... thanks 350, yeah makes sense that the FOMC statement is priced in already and a bounce on it again is probably wishful thinking.

Regarding the BOJ rate increase to .50 and futures indicating future hikes as well, does Japan's TOPIX ETF(ITF) sound like a good play if many of those holdings are finanancials/banks? They could be due for a pop due to higher rates? Probably smart to see how the markets react before jumping in though.

 

[12%ayear]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

watch the market go green. I think the yen is oversold. I excepted a rally overnight and did not get one.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

watch the market go green. I think the yen is oversold. I excepted a rally overnight and did not get one.

Are you planning to stay in the I fund?

IMHO, the buyers are trying their best to keep this market afloat. If they win again today, the bears sitting on the sideline might give up tomorrow and the rally will continue. But if they fail, it's down, down, and down, we go.

 

[12%ayear]

Yes 350z

Looking at the Yen,makes me think there will be a bounce. The overseas markets look cheap compared to the US. cross my fingers

 

[12%ayear]

sorry, 350z

forget to ask you, any estimates? ty sir

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

I think I'm going to give this 2 days to shake out.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

I think I'm going to give this 2 days to shake out.

The last time you hade anything to "shake out" Sugar involved seeds and stems didn't it? Stay in your own thread with your mindless rants Sugar! Your polluting a good thread!

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: sorry, 350z

forget to ask you, any estimates? ty sir

Yikes! I'm sorry folks. I was so busy looking at the market that I forgot to do my job!


Early estimate: Down .802% or 19 cents.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

I think I'm going to give this 2 days to shake out.

I wish I had your wisdom and patience.