350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[James48843]

Took out all of I yesterday now put transfer this morning. Does it take effect today after markets close or Monday morning? Thanks!

You guys are great to read, very interesting stuff. I've been a stalker for a while, now more interested in moving the funds some more.

If you place a TSP interfund transfer before noon, it should take effect at the closing price of today at the end of the day.

Rarely, when volume is extremely heavy, it's been known to take an extra day- but 99% + of the time the noon cutoff seems to be the deal with TSP.

 

[350zCommTech]

I'm having second thoughts about the "no brainer". Since the market is well off this morning's high, I can see it finishing up 300+ causing a +FV. This would not be that bad since Japan will rally hard on Sunday. But if the market closes down -300, it will be black Monday.

We need the Dow to be at 200+ before the deadline.

 

[12%ayear]

I used fuzzy math this morning. LOL..sorry guys.....However;Monday will be huge for Japan. The Nikkei spoiled our return today, so we will get Monday.

 

[12%ayear]

Someone please post an estimate TY

 

[weatherweenie]

Bloomberg quote +0.373%

 

[ChemEng]

1112 estimate: +6 cents plus -20 cent FVC = -14 cent total.

Markets are definately falling off their early morning highs.

 

[BoBmArLeY753]

I'm having second thoughts about the "no brainer". Since the market is well off this morning's high, I can see it finishing up 300+ causing a +FV. This would not be that bad since Japan will rally hard on Sunday. But if the market closes down -300, it will be black Monday.

We need the Dow to be at 200+ before the deadline.

What are people's thoughts on USM vs. OSM for Monday?

At this point I am leaning towards 50(S or C)/50(I)...

 

[DrFaustus]

I'm having second thoughts about the "no brainer". Since the market is well off this morning's high, I can see it finishing up 300+ causing a +FV. This would not be that bad since Japan will rally hard on Sunday. But if the market closes down -300, it will be black Monday.

I'm no guru, but I tend to agree with 350z. As of now however ( 11:15 ET ), the Dow is "only" up 110 points, so things could go either way. I'm probably going to continue to remain on the sidelines for Monday.

 

[ATCJeff]

What are people's thoughts on USM vs. OSM for Monday?

At this point I am leaning towards 50(S or C)/50(I)...

Big difference of opinion out there this morning. Take the time to read the group's post and remember in the end it's your decision. The final answer really depends on how much risk you are willing to take.

 

[atcbullet]

I'm having second thoughts about the "no brainer". Since the market is well off this morning's high, I can see it finishing up 300+ causing a +FV. This would not be that bad since Japan will rally hard on Sunday. But if the market closes down -300, it will be black Monday.

We need the Dow to be at 200+ before the deadline.

350z I agree but I think we need to look out to Mondays closing. Thats the short term play. A very tuff call.

 

[ChemEng]

I'm having second thoughts about the "no brainer". Since the market is well off this morning's high, I can see it finishing up 300+ causing a +FV. This would not be that bad since Japan will rally hard on Sunday. But if the market closes down -300, it will be black Monday.

We need the Dow to be at 200+ before the deadline.

This morning I was agreeing that it looked to be a no-brainer. But after watching it drop, Im also beginning to rethink. There are 3 potential outcomes to this, and none of them are positive IMHO.

1. Markets close flat. This will force USM/OSM to reevaluate the depth of the problem that outweighed a Fed response. Since this is over the weekend, they will have plenty of time to think.
2. Markets have a Friday melt-up. Buys you in right in on the wrong side of a +FV.
3. Markets sell off in the afternoon. IMHO this is the worst case "Blacker than Black" Monday scenario.

Not to mention the drop in $ has given room for a reversal to happen which would also hurt.

I think Im going to stay out of I-fund (and probably stocks in general) for today.

 

[ATCJeff]

This morning I was agreeing that it looked to be a no-brainer. But after watching it drop, Im also beginning to rethink. There are 3 potential outcomes to this, and none of them are positive IMHO.

1. Markets close flat. This will force USM/OSM to reevaluate the depth of the problem that outweighed a Fed response. Since this is over the weekend, they will have plenty of time to think.
2. Markets have a Friday melt-up. Buys you in right in on the wrong side of a +FV.
3. Markets sell off in the afternoon. IMHO this is the worst case "Blacker than Black" Monday scenario.

Not to mention the drop in $ has given room for a reversal to happen which would also hurt.

I think Im going to stay out of I-fund (and probably stocks in general) for today.

Great point on the dollar.

Jeff

 

[ChemEng]

1130 estimate: +15 cents plus -20 cent FVC = -5 cent total.

 

[jayhawker]

I'm having second thoughts about the "no brainer". Since the market is well off this morning's high, I can see it finishing up 300+ causing a +FV. This would not be that bad since Japan will rally hard on Sunday. But if the market closes down -300, it will be black Monday.

We need the Dow to be at 200+ before the deadline.

Europe seems to be getting stronger as they get nearer their close. Can we make a correlation to that? Does that make a US selloff less likely?

 

[350zCommTech]

Up .701% or 16 cents, minus 20 cents +FVC, total is -4 cents.

 

[NyteTracker]

I don't know about Monday, but the Sentiment Survey is 10 and 1; for the week, whenever it is below 1.00. Today it posted 0.76.
http://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php

 

[350zCommTech]

Europe seems to be getting stronger as they get nearer their close. Can we make a correlation to that? Does that make a US selloff less likely?

Yes, I think so.

 

[350zCommTech]

We need the Dow to be at 200+ before the deadline.

Dow up 155 is close enough for me.

 

[12%ayear]

People make me laugh, the friggin I FUND is on sale at these levels and will explode to the upside. It is down @8% in 7 trading days. I am staying fully invested in the I FUND all next week.

 

[Fireant]

I agree it is on sale... but the psychology of the markets is to sell no matter what the pe ratios are, earnings and the like... but I'm like you... 100 % I... DA FIREANT