Bravo Mr 12 %
to anyone that cares this man PJ french offers a FREE SERVICE , just send him a email and he will add to list . I reiterate this is FREE , here is the latest one , frenchpj@fuse.net, It will be just another tool to use, for our investments. Good luck to all , I'm in the I fund 100% as of today.
TSP Trend Timing
Objective:
Welcome to my new readers! My TSP's portfolio objective is capital appreciation while minimizing downside drawdown. I'm looking exploit short and intermediate-term trends by using technical analysis. What is technical analysis? Technical analysis assumes that both public and insider information are priced into a stock or index, and this essential combination can be expressed through the relationship between a securities price and volume over time. While not a method of 'predicting the future,' as often believed, technical analysis measures probabilities, identifies 'buy' and 'sell' signals, and minimizes risk.
This e-mail is provided free of charge to all who are interested in looking for an alternative to the "buy & hold" investing mentality. This information is intended for your information and education only. Please feel free to share this newsletter with others. If you no longer want to get this newsletter, reply to this e-mail with unsubscribe and I'll take you off distribution. Thanks for viewing and good luck with your decisions!
Commentary:
Downside stock momentum has power--but not as much as previously.
Sentiment is Bearish.
VIX fear index jumped to a new 4-year high at 30.67.
The CBOE Equity Volume and Put/Call Ratio (http://www.cboe.com/data/PutCallRatio.aspx) was 1.05 on 15 Aug and 1.08 on 14 Aug. This is the highest level of Puts relative to Calls in more than three years, since August 2004. Also, it is more than 4 standard deviations above the one-year mean of 0.64. This means that the Put/Call Ratio is at an extreme of Bearishness sentiment, which is Bullish according to the Art of Contrary Opinion.
Very Bearish media reports of troubles in credit markets and hedge funds have unsettled the markets. Investor confidence already has been shaken, and the media are adding fuel to the fire. Some Wall Street analyst’s comments also took a negative turn.
Stocks became very oversold during this 4-week downside shakeout. Price momentum oscillators hit their most Bearish extreme lows from 24-31 July and have demonstrated positive divergences since then by failing to confirm lower lows in price. This suggests downside momentum is starting to slow. As of Wednesday’s close, these momentum oscillators were holding above recent deeper oversold readings. Therefore, they are showing Bullish divergence as compared to some of the major price indices, such as the C Fund, which now is at new lows for the swing. Divergence at turning points is a typical technical phenomenon. Needless to say (I hope), oversold readings and divergences come with no guarantees...
I Fund stocks underperformed since 11 July, and price made a new 5-month low. The short-term shakeout now has hit global markets relatively harder compared to U. S. markets. The I Fund broke decisively below its 200-day simple moving average. As a result, I'm moving I Fund dollars to the C Fund as it has the best relative 10-day performance for the TSP stock index funds.
TSP Charts:
10-Day TSP Relative Performance
S Fund Chart
I Fund Chart
C Fund Charts
F Fund Charts
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What to Do for 16 Aug 07
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L Fund (Lifecycle 2040)
Current L Fund allocation is 50%.
F Fund (20 Year + Treasury Bond Fund)
Current F Fund allocation is 0%.
Effective portfolio allocation considering L Fund is 5.0%.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) If SPY < $137.09, move 20% into G Fund.
Current C Fund allocation is 20%.
Effective portfolio allocation considering L Fund is 40.5%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) If DWCP or $EMW < $614.29, move 15% into G Fund.
Current S Fund allocation is 15%.
Effective portfolio allocation considering L Fund is 24.0%.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Move 15% into C Fund.
Current I Fund allocation is 15%.
Effective portfolio allocation considering L Fund is 27.0%.
G Fund (Money Market)
Current G Fund allocation is 0%.
Effective portfolio allocation considering L Fund is 3.5%.
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How to Use the Action Limits:
The cut-off time for interfund transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1145. If you have a brokerage account, that's best as the quotes are real time. If you use the Web, normally, these quotes have a 20-minute delay.
Compare the value of the ETF or index against the recommended action limit(s) and take action, if indicated. Make sure asset transfers and asset allocations are the same percentages so you will be making at minimum two transactions when a change is warranted.
The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
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to anyone that cares this man PJ french offers a FREE SERVICE , just send him a email and he will add to list . I reiterate this is FREE , here is the latest one , frenchpj@fuse.net, It will be just another tool to use, for our investments. Good luck to all , I'm in the I fund 100% as of today.
TSP Trend Timing
Objective:
Welcome to my new readers! My TSP's portfolio objective is capital appreciation while minimizing downside drawdown. I'm looking exploit short and intermediate-term trends by using technical analysis. What is technical analysis? Technical analysis assumes that both public and insider information are priced into a stock or index, and this essential combination can be expressed through the relationship between a securities price and volume over time. While not a method of 'predicting the future,' as often believed, technical analysis measures probabilities, identifies 'buy' and 'sell' signals, and minimizes risk.
This e-mail is provided free of charge to all who are interested in looking for an alternative to the "buy & hold" investing mentality. This information is intended for your information and education only. Please feel free to share this newsletter with others. If you no longer want to get this newsletter, reply to this e-mail with unsubscribe and I'll take you off distribution. Thanks for viewing and good luck with your decisions!
Commentary:
Downside stock momentum has power--but not as much as previously.
Sentiment is Bearish.
VIX fear index jumped to a new 4-year high at 30.67.
The CBOE Equity Volume and Put/Call Ratio (http://www.cboe.com/data/PutCallRatio.aspx) was 1.05 on 15 Aug and 1.08 on 14 Aug. This is the highest level of Puts relative to Calls in more than three years, since August 2004. Also, it is more than 4 standard deviations above the one-year mean of 0.64. This means that the Put/Call Ratio is at an extreme of Bearishness sentiment, which is Bullish according to the Art of Contrary Opinion.
Very Bearish media reports of troubles in credit markets and hedge funds have unsettled the markets. Investor confidence already has been shaken, and the media are adding fuel to the fire. Some Wall Street analyst’s comments also took a negative turn.
Stocks became very oversold during this 4-week downside shakeout. Price momentum oscillators hit their most Bearish extreme lows from 24-31 July and have demonstrated positive divergences since then by failing to confirm lower lows in price. This suggests downside momentum is starting to slow. As of Wednesday’s close, these momentum oscillators were holding above recent deeper oversold readings. Therefore, they are showing Bullish divergence as compared to some of the major price indices, such as the C Fund, which now is at new lows for the swing. Divergence at turning points is a typical technical phenomenon. Needless to say (I hope), oversold readings and divergences come with no guarantees...
I Fund stocks underperformed since 11 July, and price made a new 5-month low. The short-term shakeout now has hit global markets relatively harder compared to U. S. markets. The I Fund broke decisively below its 200-day simple moving average. As a result, I'm moving I Fund dollars to the C Fund as it has the best relative 10-day performance for the TSP stock index funds.
TSP Charts:
10-Day TSP Relative Performance
S Fund Chart
I Fund Chart
C Fund Charts
F Fund Charts
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What to Do for 16 Aug 07
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
L Fund (Lifecycle 2040)
Current L Fund allocation is 50%.
F Fund (20 Year + Treasury Bond Fund)
Current F Fund allocation is 0%.
Effective portfolio allocation considering L Fund is 5.0%.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) If SPY < $137.09, move 20% into G Fund.
Current C Fund allocation is 20%.
Effective portfolio allocation considering L Fund is 40.5%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) If DWCP or $EMW < $614.29, move 15% into G Fund.
Current S Fund allocation is 15%.
Effective portfolio allocation considering L Fund is 24.0%.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Move 15% into C Fund.
Current I Fund allocation is 15%.
Effective portfolio allocation considering L Fund is 27.0%.
G Fund (Money Market)
Current G Fund allocation is 0%.
Effective portfolio allocation considering L Fund is 3.5%.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How to Use the Action Limits:
The cut-off time for interfund transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1145. If you have a brokerage account, that's best as the quotes are real time. If you use the Web, normally, these quotes have a 20-minute delay.
Compare the value of the ETF or index against the recommended action limit(s) and take action, if indicated. Make sure asset transfers and asset allocations are the same percentages so you will be making at minimum two transactions when a change is warranted.
The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
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Up then back down?
