Forex
Pound rises after hawkish BoE inflation report
LONDON - The pound strengthened after the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report suggested interest rates will rise to 6.00 pct by the end of the year.
In its quarterly Inflation Report, the BoE said the annual rate of CPI inflation will only fall back towards the 2.0 pct target in two years time if rates rise once more in the next few months.
The central bank said the risks to the near-term inflation profile are slightly higher than they were at the time of the last inflation report in May, but the risks to the medium-term profile are slightly lower.
"On the face of it, the most likely scenario is that the BoE will tighten once again unless there is a surprisingly acute downturn in domestic demand, a sudden retreat in pricing intentio ns or greater dislocation in financial markets," said Daragh Maher, senior forex strategist at Calyon.
"All are possible, so a rate hike is not guaranteed, but it is questionable how long the hawks will be willing to wait before pulling the rate trigger again," he said.
He added that sterling markets have priced in an 80 pct probability of a rate hike happening in November. At present the benchmark rate is at 5.75 pct.
However, if next Wednesday's minutes to August's rate setting meeting reveal any signs that there were calls for a hike, then that probability may rise further, Maher said.