350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[Rod]

I'll be the first to admit I'm having a difficult time figuring out how I should be timing the markets with my IFTs. I seem to be zigging when Mr. Market is zagging.

I've been drinking knowledge from the fire hose for the last week and I'm I'm beginning to think I'm getting stupider by the minute. My IFTs for this morning were from 50G & 50 I, to 20G, 15F, 25C, 15 S, & 25 I

I've been hitting the search engines like a mad man, but I haven't been able to get down the basics yet.

Thanks everyone for your contributions to this forum. With your help, I'm sure I'll eventually get the hang of it.

Hey, as long as you maintain a sense a humor (which I at least tried to interject to lighten things up) you will do just fine.

What I've learned over the years, and others will contest to- you can't allow your emotions to dictate your moves. Although that is very difficult to do at times. I'm STILL recovering from last summer's sell-off.

There IS no "system" to the market's madness (although many will claim to have one).

So, do not drive yourself cRaZy searching for one.

You don't have to search the engines... simply sit back and learn from the wide array of talent on this very board.

God Bless

 

[JTH]

What I've learned over the years, and others will contest to- you can't allow your emotions to dictate your moves.

I must admit that since I created my TSP account 6 years ago, I’ve gotten more wound up, In the last 6 days then the previous 6 years.


With the exception of this week I’ve probably made 6 IFTs since I started my TSP. I’ll take your advice to heart and hopefully as my technical skills advance, I’ll rely less on my emotional decisions.

Thanks…Jason

 

[buda]

I must admit that since I created my TSP account 6 years ago, I’ve gotten more wound up, In the last 6 days then the previous 6 years.


With the exception of this week I’ve probably made 6 IFTs since I started my TSP. I’ll take your advice to heart and hopefully as my technical skills advance, I’ll rely less on my emotional decisions.

Thanks…Jason

Thick Skinned is a must.

And we will all do just fine.

buda

 

[Rod]

I must admit that since I created my TSP account 6 years ago, I’ve gotten more wound up, In the last 6 days then the previous 6 years.


With the exception of this week I’ve probably made 6 IFTs since I started my TSP. I’ll take your advice to heart and hopefully as my technical skills advance, I’ll rely less on my emotional decisions.

Thanks…Jason

BTW, Happy Birthday!

 

[12%ayear]

What it needs is a 10% correction!

Today was simply another "blip".

what it needs and what it gets are 2 different things

 

[12%ayear]

early estimate......-19 cents(bloomberg) +23 cents fair value= +4 cents for the day so far

 

[clester]

early estimate......-19 cents(bloomberg) +23 cents fair value= +4 cents for the day so far

Is this +FV today a negative for getting into the I fund today?

 

[James48843]

Now showing down -$0.21 cents.

9:15 am EDT

 

[12%ayear]

us dollar on fire!!! watch for a turn tomorrow

 

[350zCommTech]

Yen carry trade is unwinding. we are F@#$ed....

 

[ExtremeWX]

In this situation, is the I fund safe for tomorrow (Thursday).

Just wondering if I should bail now.

Bryan

 

[fedgolfer]

Yen carry trade is unwinding. we are F@#$ed....

any data and articles to explain this further? Thx in advance, 350.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

us dollar on fire!!! watch for a turn tomorrow

us dollar turn 'down' tomorrow?

 

[James48843]

In this situation, is the I fund safe for tomorrow (Thursday).

Just wondering if I should bail now.

Bryan

Congratulations- you have asked the $64,000 question.

Just remember this- no stock fund is ever "safe".

Sometimes they go up, sometimes they go down.

Some on this board will tell you that they only way to actually loose money on stocks is to sell them at a loss. And if you hang on long enough, eventually you will make your money back.

I somewhat subscribe to that theory. If I happen to be IN a stock fund when it goes down, I usually hang on and ride it out. If, on the other hand, I happen to be OUT of a stock fund at the time it goes down, I sit on the sidelines just long enough to find a point that is lower than when I sold it last, so that I can buy more shares when I get back in.

Sorry, but that is about the best answer ANYONE can give.

You have to make your own decision on whether or not to bail out. It's your money, so you get to make that decision.

 

[350zCommTech]

In this situation, is the I fund safe for tomorrow (Thursday).

Just wondering if I should bail now.

Bryan

Possibly, another -FV will make the I fund the safer place to gamble. But keep in mind that we haven't seen real panic yet. Think February 27th.

 

[fedgolfer]

from investopedia on carry trade:

"A strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates - which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage the investor chooses to use.

Here's an example of a "yen carry trade": let's say a trader borrows 1,000 yen from a Japanese bank, converts the funds into U.S. dollars and buys a bond for the equivalent amount. Let's assume that the bond pays 4.5% and the Japanese interest rate is set at 0%. The trader stands to make a profit of 4.5% (4.5% - 0%), as long as the exchange rate between the countries does not change. Many professional traders use this trade because the gains can become very large when leverage is taken into consideration. If the trader in our example uses a common leverage factor of 10:1, then she can stand to make a profit of 45%.

The big risk in a carry trade is the uncertainty of exchange rates. Using the example above, if the U.S. dollar were to fall in value relative to the Japanese yen, then the trader would run the risk of losing money. Also, these transactions are generally done with a lot of leverage, so a small movement in exchange rates can result in huge losses unless hedged appropriately."

WHAT IS MEANT BY THE UNWINDING OF THE CARRY TRADE? AND DOES THIS ADD TO THE ARGUMENT THAT GLOBAL LIQUIDITY IS DRYING UP?

 

[weatherweenie]

-1.423%

 

[James48843]

"I" now showing down -0.42 cents, as of 11:00 am.

 

[12%ayear]

lol, everyone is panicing. Relax, this is what the markets needed. Pure shake-out. Now everyone will say 10% correction is coming and get left behind going to the sidelines. All these charts mean nothing. Going forward is looking much better..lower oil prices, FED will become dovish and cut. Perfect buying opp. I am feelinging more bullish now than ever.14000s will come faster than you think!!!

 

[fedgolfer]

-1.423%

that doesn't include the rebalancing for yesterday's -fv, correct?