350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[350zCommTech]

1520 for S&P seems to be just in the range for a +FV (.50%)... will the change in the dollar negate the FV? Plus, yesterday FV corrected value .24, will be added to today's FV.

The USM certainly changed enough to warrant a 14 cent +FV, but with the I fund making 6 cents due to the FV correction, I would not be surprised if we don't see a +FV tonight. Remember, the Asians shrugged off yesterdays' sell-off in the USM and actually had a decent night, making yesterdays' -FV a real screw job. The dollar is a non-factor.

 

[350zCommTech]

G=0
F=-2
C=+11
S=+9
I=+6


No +FV today.

 

[350zCommTech]

This is some scary stuff:

CDOs would be rocked by open auction: strategist

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The uncertain fate of two Bear Stearns hedge funds which loaded up on mortgage-backed securities that are now souring has cast a sharp light on the fragility of the collateralized debt obligation market, a strategist warned.

He argued that if the bonds in the Bear Stearns Companies Inc. funds were auctioned on the open market, much weaker values would be plainly revealed.

"This would force other hedge funds to similarly mark down the value of their holdings. Is it any wonder that Wall street is pulling out the stops to avoid such a catastrophe?," Schiff said.
He further cautioned that the impact of hedge fund losses would be pale in contrast to the likely impact of an open market auction of subprime CDOs.

"Their true weakness will finally reveal the abyss into which the housing market is about to plummet," he said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bear-stearns-hedge-fund-woes/story.aspx?guid=%7B11C86668%2D22D1%2D4D93%2DBE09%2D62E7B0EA6C67%7D

 

[350zCommTech]

More scary stuff:

Lehman selling $400 mln of Bear hedge fund assets: source

By Aparajita Saha-Bubna
Last Update: 6:45 PM ET Jun 21, 2007


The assets were put up as collateral by the funds that received financing from Lehman, as well as a bevy of other Wall Street banks.
The bid list, which was in circulation Thursday afternoon, totals about $400 million of securities, said the source.

Earlier in the day, Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) sold a fraction of the $850 million of the Bear Stearns hedge fund assets it had put on the auction block on Wednesday.

Merrill sold $100 million worth of mostly collateralized debt obligations backed by mortgage-backed bonds, which a market participant said was enough to the cover the loan it extended to Bear's two troubled hedge funds.

The end of the Merrill sale had calmed jitters among market participants worried that the auction would spark a broader repricing of similar assets.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={84521E1C-F1B0-43CA-B029-F2A982520ED2}

 

[ebbnflow]

1520 for S&P seems to be just in the range for a +FV (.50%)... will the change in the dollar negate the FV? Plus, yesterday FV corrected value .24, will be added to today's FV.

Applied FV came in close. The % difference after our deadline was:

EFA = +.47%
DOW = +.49%
S&P = +.48%

Close, but no cigar.

 

[350zCommTech]

Applied FV came in close. The % difference after our deadline was:

EFA = +.47%
DOW = +.49%
S&P = +.48%

Close, but no cigar.

Don't you mean 11:30 est.? That is what you're using right?

 

[ebbnflow]

350z, that's 11:36 AM ET to be exact. FTSE does not close until that time.

 

[350zCommTech]

350z, that's 11:36 AM ET to be exact. FTSE does not close until that time.

Well, that certainly makes sense. I've always assumed that they use 1200 est. because of our deadline, since a big change that happens between 1136-1200 est. will give us an advantage. Anyway, I will use 1136 est. from now on or perhaps you can be in charge of the FV estimates?

 

[Robo5555]

Japan is down 1% ..... are we looking at a down Friday??

 

[ebbnflow]

Well, that certainly makes sense. I've always assumed that they use 1200 est. because of our deadline, since a big change that happens between 1136-1200 est. will give us an advantage. Anyway, I will use 1136 est. from now on or perhaps you can be in charge of the FV estimates?

350z, that's 11:36 AM ET to be exact. FTSE does not close until that time.

You do the honors, 350z. You've been doing a great job. I'll sub for the FV estimates when you're not available.

 

[ebbnflow]

Well, that certainly makes sense. I've always assumed that they use 1200 est. because of our deadline, since a big change that happens between 1136-1200 est. will give us an advantage. Anyway, I will use 1136 est. from now on or perhaps you can be in charge of the FV estimates?

I checked and it's definitely not 12:00 ET:

EFA = +.68%
Dow = +.53%
S&P = +.57%

All went over .50% using 12:00 timeframe which would have triggered FV.

 

[350zCommTech]

Japan is down 1% ..... are we looking at a down Friday??

So far, the selling in Japan appears to be just serious profit taking as the weak Yen is usually supportive of the Nikkei. If todays' bounce was a dead cat bounce, as Tom suggested in his daily comments, the I fund might be a buying opportunity tomorrow. I expect the dollar to continue it's down trend next week starting Monday. And also, the Ebbcharts is suggesting a move to the I fund for Monday.

 

[The_Technician]

Estimate: -.14 cents, +FV correction of . 24 cents = a gain of .10 cents

Gilligan, I am curious why your estimate was 10 cents....I had it most of the morning at or around the 5-6 cent mark with the 24 FV added........I thought maybe it would be good to review some parameters....I had the dollar at 82.723 yesterday to figure the estimate.....

What say u??

 

[Gilligan]

Gilligan, I am curious why your estimate was 10 cents....I had it most of the morning at or around the 5-6 cent mark with the 24 FV added........I thought maybe it would be good to review some parameters....I had the dollar at 82.723 yesterday to figure the estimate.....

What say u??

I had the dollar at 82.649, the FTSE and CAC closed lower than I calculated.

 

[Gilligan]

The dollar is trending lower this morning.

 

[James48843]

Pre-opening, "I" is now showing down just .01 cent right now. Partly because of the dollar.

 

[350zCommTech]

While the I fund's lose is minimal thanks to the falling dollar, watch S&P 1507 area for support. It made a nice bounce there yesterday. If that fails, we might see 1460. That's over 4% more down. That sounds scary but we have yet to find out the full impact of Bear Sterns 2 hedge funds. With the Fed meeting and the end of the quarter next week, I doubt that we will see that kind of a crash.

 

[350zCommTech]

Current Estimate: Down .120% or -3 cents.

 

[350zCommTech]

Down .362 or -9 cents.

 

[350zCommTech]

Possibile -FV day