350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[jayhawker]

11:40 estimate: +1.15 or +28 cents (-13 cents FV = +15 cents)

Will they take back the 13 cents today? I have no idea. That's what usually happens but they've been doing things a bit different lately.

 

[clester]

Tomorrow may be your day birch. I looks overbought today.

 

[Gilligan]

Why would they take back the FV today - do you think they want ya'll to buy cheaper - hardly. It would make more sense to use it on a down day, that way they add weight to the hammer. It's a tricky situation. I'm ready to pick up another 2% position this week.

I agree with Birchtree, I believe that Barclays will let the FV ride today, maybe take it back tomorrow.

 

[ATCJeff]

Why would they take back the FV today - do you think they want ya'll to buy cheaper - hardly. It would make more sense to use it on a down day, that way they add weight to the hammer. It's a tricky situation. I'm ready to pick up another 2% position this week.

Birch you really need to read up on the FV. You have it all wrong.

http://www.tsp.gov/faq/faq4.html#sub1

Fair value pricing is used by mutual funds when there is a gap between the time the index closes and the time the fund is priced to reflect the index. Fair value pricing was implemented to protect long-term shareholders from short-term traders attempting to profit from price difference between the index's closing price and the price of the fund before it was repriced. While it causes some variation in daily pricing, the variation is generally reversed the next day.

Fair value pricing in the TSP's I Fund occurs less than 20% of the time. The TSP is meant to be a long-term retirement savings account, not a short term trading vehicle. Mutual funds use fair value, redemption fees, and limits on numbers of trades to prevent market timing activity and the resulting excessive trading costs from hurting the performance of the fund. To date, the TSP has chosen to use only fair value pricing, but that may change in the future.
Fair valuation ensures that traders cannot "market time" the I Fund by making investment decisions based on the "stale" prices, thus diluting the returns of other participants who invest in the I Fund. Because the EAFE uses the foreign market closing prices to calculate its values, its price change will differ from the TSP's on those days.​

 

[jayhawker]

I agree with Birchtree, I believe that Barclays will let the FV ride today, maybe take it back tomorrow.

Interesting.

I can't get hurt either way. I'm taking my profits and moving to the G for tomorrow.

 

[ATCJeff]

I agree with Birchtree, I believe that Barclays will let the FV ride today, maybe take it back tomorrow.

I disagree. If the market/dollar doesn't change much after 12PM they will take it back today. It doesn't matter who's buying/selling.

 

[HAILSTORM]

if they for some reason DID wait this time until tomorrow to take back the applied +FV, then they really accomplished their goal of confusing us and preventing successful market timing

 

[SkyPilot]

I probably am in error here, but it seems as though when FV is applied, all is brought back to even. Last Thursday the market moved substantially after the noon deadline, but not enough to trigger a FV adjustment.

However, Friday added to that move so that the scales had to be balanced. So, as of Friday when a FV was applied, the scales were balanced? I think .

 

[Robo5555]

I think SkyPilot is right about the FV.

 

[ATCJeff]

Friday we saw a FV of ~13 cents. We will have to pay that amount today to square things up. Barra had the MSCI EAFE up 0.24% friday. TSP I fund was up 19 cents which is a much higher percentage then 0.24%.

 

[jayhawker]

EAFE final: +1.262 or +30 cents.

 

[weatherweenie]

eafe + 1.262%

 

[weatherweenie]

EAFE final: +1.262 or +30 cents.

JINX!

 

[weatherweenie]

Friday we saw a FV of ~13 cents. We will have to pay that amount today to square things up. Barra had the MSCI EAFE up 0.24% friday. TSP I fund was up 19 cents which is a much higher percentage then 0.24%.

Check out the stats on Thursday.

Shouldn't the I fund have been up more than it was Thursday?

 

[SkyPilot]

However, the USD was up enough on Thursday to head off the FV adjustment.

That is why the extra was not accounted for Thursday, but combined with the gains on Friday resulted in a +FV,

 

[ATCJeff]

Check out the stats on Thursday.

Shouldn't the I fund have been up more than it was Thursday?

The TSP I fund was down 2 cents on Thursday. Bara had the MSCI EAFE down -.073%. That's about right.

 

[jayhawker]

G = +.01
F = +.02
C = +.17
S = +.20
I = +.17

Looks like they did take back the 13 cents. And the G penny paid!

 

[ATCJeff]

Now can we get some follow through tonight in the Internationals!

Two quick excerpts....

Look at Dave's comments below in blue....

http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

and from out favorite economist......

TOKYO: Alan Greenspan, the former U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman, played down his earlier concern about a possible American recession, saying the world economy would provide a cushion, according to people attending a forum Monday in Tokyo.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/16/business/greenspan.php

Now there's two people who think Internationals will keep growing.

 

[dhstdog]

Bammm very nice I love the I fund over 24!!!! Took some profits off the table and moved to the G for a day or two. Thanks to all that provide opinions and information.

 

[jayhawker]

Early estimate: +.166 or +4 cents.