350zCommtech's Account Talk

[fedgolfer]

do you think the vast majority of big money players have already bailed? How much more of an exodus can their be, if we've already seen large distribution indicators? And, do you think that some of those investors are now looking to take advantage of the fear? I just have no idea how deep this hole really is, but as each day goes by something else seems to pop up.

If this problem is as contagious as they say, I think large hedge funds would have to incrementally distrubute on the way down, and likewise incrementally accumulate on the way up as data presents itself. The more I look at the charts the more I think the smart money isn't trying to call an exact bottom.

 

[poolman]

I was worried after the dow hit 13,000 and stayed in the g-fund primarily all the way to 14,000.

Honestly, I could see us go to 12,000 before 14,000 with all the credit problems that banks got themselves into.

 

[fedgolfer]

just playing devil's advocate, and assuming the big money investors have jumped ship from the sinking hedge funds... the news today could be circulating more fear but not causing more redemptions. It seems someone wants today's candlesticks to close on the lows.

Were their any hedge fund redemption suspensions in any of these in question recently? If so, that's when it was at its worst and made light of to the big investors -- and probably after the big boys bailed.

 

[350zCommTech]

I just have no idea how deep this hole really is, but as each day goes by something else seems to pop up.

The more I look at the charts the more I think the smart money isn't trying to call an exact bottom.

That's the scary part. IMO, we're going to get more hedge funds blowing up, more lenders shutting down(CFC could be the killer), and perhaps a big bank going down. Like I said earlier, it's a mine field out there.

 

[350zCommTech]

Looks like we're taking Canada down with us...

Coventree Says Lenders Balking at Emergency Funding (Update2)

By Sean B. Pasternak and Doug Alexander
Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Coventree Inc., the Canadian firm that failed to sell asset-backed commercial paper because of a credit crunch, said some lenders balked at providing emergency funding for C$700 million ($661 million) of maturing debt.
Coventree, the largest non-bank issuer of commercial paper in Canada, requested funding because it was unable to refinance debt that matured yesterday. Coventree's funds are among 17 asset-backed commercial paper issuers in Canada seeking emergency funding, said rating company DBRS.
``Certain liquidity providers have advanced funding, some have disagreed that they have an obligation to fund, some are in discussions with the company, and some have not responded,'' the Toronto-based company said in a Canada NewsWire release today.
Shares in Coventree plunged as much as 63 percent, dragging Canadian bank stocks lower, on concern that some its C$16 billion in funds will be forced to default if they can't get financing. A slump in U.S. subprime mortgages has prompted banks to restrict lending, forcing central banks to inject money into financial markets. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad0_5eC8PlAk&refer=home

 

[350zCommTech]

Were their any hedge fund redemption suspensions in any of these in question recently? If so, that's when it was at its worst and made light of to the big investors -- and probably after the big boys bailed.

I don't know. It seems like we only hear that they're either doing OK or halting redemptions. And recently, halting redemptions have been followed by shutdown, then law suits.

 

[poolman]

Last hour is the scary hour !


"Ground Control to Major Tom
Ground Control to Major Tom
Take your protein pills and put your helmet on

Ground Control to Major Tom
Commencing countdown, engines on
Check ignition and may God's love be with you

(spoken)
Ten, Nine, Eight, Seven, Six, Five, Four, Three, Two, One, Liftoff"

 

[Birchtree]

I say ignore the headlines - it's designed to agitate. The world is not ending - yet, anyway. Enjoy the pain while it lasts.

 

[350zCommTech]

I'm surprised they didn't wait for the stock to hit $10...

Countrywide cut at Merrill on liquidity concerns

By Aude Lagorce
Last Update: 6:21 AM ET Aug 15, 2007

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch downgraded Countrywide to sell from buy, citing concerns that liquidity in the mortgage sector could further erode the value of the company's franchise. The broker told clients it fears that the acceleration of margin calls and forced asset sales in the capital markets could lead to more problems for Countrywide to finance its mortgage operations. "Should a liquidity event occur, for which the likelihood is increasing, Countrywide shares would probably witness further selling pressure," Merrill concluded.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/countrywide-cut-merrill-liquidity-concerns/story.aspx?guid=%7BF4DFC861%2D4209%2D492D%2DA9FB%2D36817B8F7AC3%7D

 

[350zCommTech]

Note to self:

BOE=no rate hike next meeting.

U.K. central bank was unanimous on rates
Minutes fuel speculation that interest rates may have peaked; policymaker take 'wait and see' approach.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/15/news/international/bc.britain.rates.reut/index.htm

 

[350zCommTech]

Another terrible Tuesday next week?

Hanover Capital Mortgage delays earnings release

By John Spence
Last Update: 8:46 AM ET Aug 15, 2007

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Hanover Capital Mortgage Holdings Inc. Wednesday said the release of its second-quarter financial results and conference call have been rescheduled for Aug. 21. The mortgage REIT "had to re-examine its position regarding declines in the fair value of its available for sale portfolio of its subordinate mortgage-backed securities collateralized by prime mortgage loans," said Chief Executive John Burchett in a statement. He also cited "a financing transaction that will have a material impact on the company's financial position" as a reason for the delay.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={8472C765-C4AD-4074-A997-ECDBF33B8DBF}

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

350Z, I'm glad you went 100-S. I was starting to feel like the Lone Ranger.. I respect your market analysis. Feeling a little better with my 100-C allocation.

 

[ATCJeff]

350Z, I'm glad you went 100-S. I was starting to feel like the Lone Ranger.. I respect your market analysis. Feeling a little better with my 100-C allocation.

You both have got to have real Big Ones! Hope your right!

 

[350zCommTech]

350Z, I'm glad you went 100-S. I was starting to feel like the Lone Ranger.. I respect your market analysis. Feeling a little better with my 100-C allocation.

You both have got to have real Big Ones! Hope your right!

Thanks Wind,

I'm hoping we capitulate this afternoon and then HP comes out with good news.

 

[poolman]

Thanks Wind,

I'm hoping we capitulate this afternoon and then HP comes out with good news.

I totally respect both of you guys trades. Currently everything looks super bloody. God knows what is going to happen now.

 

[350zCommTech]

I totally respect both of you guys trades. Currently everything looks super bloody. God knows what is going to happen now.

The $VIX moving into overbought territory was another reason for me to jump back in. But there's no law that says it has to come back down.:worried:

 

[poolman]

The $VIX moving into overbought territory was another reason for me to jump back in. But there's no law that says it has to come back down.:worried:

I've got to go get my rolaids. Vix is at it's high of the day. This could be it.

 

[poolman]

I've got to go get my rolaids. Vix is at it's high of the day. This could be it.

Down down > 300

Vix - 35

At this rate OSM's are going to plummet tonight

 

[350zCommTech]

The $VIX moving into overbought territory was another reason for me to jump back in. But there's no law that says it has to come back down.:worried:

Today's $VIX suggest that a lot of traders do not believe in this rally. I don't blame them. But I believe the shorts will cover soon. Perhaps at 3:00pm? Fundamentally, the market should be crashing. The cut in the discount rate did not change the credit market. CDOs, MBS, ABS, etc.. Junk will still be junk. CFC's days are numbered. They're running on fumes.

Once I feel this rally is about to run out of steam, perhaps as early as Monday, I will bail out and change my avatar back to the nuke explosion.

 

[Birchtree]

Perhaps the discount rate reduction is only a prelude to better things to come. The market is a discounting mechanism and has a tendency to look out over several months to a year.